Texas Winter 2018-2019

[stormlover2013]

Models really struggle with winter down here in Texas, don’t get ur hopes up

[Ralph's Weather]

We are finally getting close to our sweet spot for this winter being mid Jan through mid to late Feb. It's coming. Some especially out west have had a head start. Maybe next week is our head start. We are in line for some good snows soon though.

On another note Albuquerque is under a blizzard warning. You don't see that very often that far west. Blizzards are common along I40 further east though. Almost all of NM is under a winter storm warning. Some spots or there will see more snow this week than all of last season.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We are finally getting close to our sweet spot for this winter being mid Jan through mid to late Feb. It's coming. Some especially out west have had a head start. Maybe next week is our head start. We are in line for some good snows soon though.

On another note Albuquerque is under a blizzard warning. You don't see that very often that far west. Blizzards are common along I40 further east though. Almost all of NM is under a winter storm warning. Some spots or there will see more snow this week than all of last season.

I really hope so. This winter has been talked up so much that it’s gonna be a huge let down if it never happens.

[Cerlin]

We are finally getting close to our sweet spot for this winter being mid Jan through mid to late Feb. It's coming. Some especially out west have had a head start. Maybe next week is our head start. We are in line for some good snows soon though.

On another note Albuquerque is under a blizzard warning. You don't see that very often that far west. Blizzards are common along I40 further east though. Almost all of NM is under a winter storm warning. Some spots or there will see more snow this week than all of last season.

I really hope so. This winter has been talked up so much that it’s gonna be a huge let down if it never happens.

If we can’t get anything this winter...I’ll be doubting getting anything for any winters to come.

[Captmorg70]

We are finally getting close to our sweet spot for this winter being mid Jan through mid to late Feb. It's coming. Some especially out west have had a head start. Maybe next week is our head start. We are in line for some good snows soon though.

On another note Albuquerque is under a blizzard warning. You don't see that very often that far west. Blizzards are common along I40 further east though. Almost all of NM is under a winter storm warning. Some spots or there will see more snow this week than all of last season.

The Snow in NM is pretty nuts. Made it to Angel Fire tonight. 87 North of Dalhart got shut down today. Ended up all over NM trying to find a road that was open

[Brent]

We are finally getting close to our sweet spot for this winter being mid Jan through mid to late Feb. It's coming. Some especially out west have had a head start. Maybe next week is our head start. We are in line for some good snows soon though.

On another note Albuquerque is under a blizzard warning. You don't see that very often that far west. Blizzards are common along I40 further east though. Almost all of NM is under a winter storm warning. Some spots or there will see more snow this week than all of last season.

I really hope so. This winter has been talked up so much that it’s gonna be a huge let down if it never happens.

If we can’t get anything this winter...I’ll be doubting getting anything for any winters to come.

totally agree... I'm done with this snowless bs... if we can't score something with as much hype as this winter has had something has changed around here

[South Texas Storms]

I can't believe some of yall are still salty about not getting snow over the past few years.

Relax and be patient. It will snow again.

[rwfromkansas]

Saw some surprise flurries when going back to my parent’s house in KS today. Bigger storm way west, mostly just rain here until a few flurries today. Basically a dusting, but cold enough it stuck to grass.

[Cpv17]

0z GFS is looking interesting!!

[weatherdude1108]

Got about three inches here.

[Cpv17]

Got about three inches here.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2jebndj.jpg

Heck of a rain you got there. I got 2.15” here in Wharton and I was thrilled by that cuz all week long they were saying north of I-10 was supposed to get most of the rain and south of 10 not so much. We were in the 1/2” to 3”4” zone and we beat that here big time!

[Cerlin]

I can't believe some of yall are still salty about not getting snow over the past few years.

Relax and be patient. It will snow again.

The saltiness comes from the fact that they always predict snow and it always disappears right as it gets to DFW!!

[northjaxpro]

A wuick update for game time forecast for those of you headed here to Jacksonville, FL to attend the Gator Bowl. game on New Year's Eve night:

Monday: Mostly Sunny with daytime high near 80.

Temperature by start of the game into the mid-upper 60s.

It will be unseasonably warm for all the Aggies fans heading here for the game to take on N.C. State. Safe travels here to Jax and enjoy the game and your time here ringing in 2019.

BTW, immediately after the game, county music recording artist Cole Swindell will perform a concert at TIAA Bank Field to ring in 2019... Enjoy!

[Brent]

I can't believe some of yall are still salty about not getting snow over the past few years.

Relax and be patient. It will snow again.

The saltiness comes from the fact that they always predict snow and it always disappears right as it gets to DFW!!

I honestly didnt have an issue til we missed so much to the SE last year and then never got ours... That's when I got salty, the first couple of winters when nobody got snow well that was just usual Texas.

0z Euro has a narrow strip of a little snow around Tyler Wednesday, nada in DFW of course.

[northjaxpro]

A quick update with the game day forecast for those of you headed here to Jacksonville , FL to attend the Gator Bowl. game on New Year's Eve night: It will be beautiful weather-wise!

Monday: Mostly Sunny with daytime high near 80.

Temperature by start of the game into the mid-upper 60s.

It will be unseasonably warm here for all the Texas A&M Aggies fans heading here for the game to take on N.C. State. Safe travels here to Jax and enjoy the game and your time here ringing in 2019.

BTW, immediately after the game, country music recording artist Cole Swindell will perform a concert at TIAA Bank Field to ring in 2019... Enjoy!

[southerngale]

Hey all. I'm in Lubbock until Sunday. The NWS forecast calls for 30% chance of snow Friday night and Saturday, and the locals are saying the POTENTIAL of 1"-3". Any insight?

Btw, traveling here on Wednesday was crazy. We hit that line of storms and it was extremely windy with tumbleweeds and other small debris flying everywhere, the car shaking a lot. I briefly thought we were on the edge of a tornado. I took pics of what resembled a supercell. A huge tumbleweed attached itself to the front of my car and I drove with it on my car in the middle of nowhere for over an hour. Like literally nothing but fields, hills, dirt, and rock. It had gotten so windy and we were in a Tornado watch and there was nowhere to go. 100 miles of nothing. No ditches or underpasses or anything. Thank God it wasn't worse. Just a tale to tell. I'm having trouble uploading pics. The site I usually use is down. I'll try later.

[Cpv17]

I’m not getting my hopes up or holding my breath for any wintry weather next week. As of right now it doesn’t appear very likely, especially for my area. Long ways to go yet. Hopefully we can get a positive trend going on the models here soon.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX office talks about possibilities of frozen precip in their forecast, but explains why it may not happen aside from cold rain.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST Fri Dec 28 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Today will be a sunny and cool day across South Central Texas.
Surface high pressure will build over the area allowing for cooler
air to continue to filter in. Afternoon highs will range from the
low 50s across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees along the Rio
Grande and Coastal Plains. After running above normal for several
days, including Christmas, this will begin a shift to near or below
normal temperatures. Tonight, weak isentropic lift develops across
South Texas and this could produce a few showers along the Coastal
Plains, and will mean the return of cloud cover to most areas
overnight tonight. The increasing clouds will moderate overnight lows
east of I-35 keeping them in the 40s, but in areas that stay clear
for most of the night (the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau) lows
will drop to near freezing.

By Saturday a coastal trough develops off of the middle Texas Coast.
This will result in stronger isentropic lift across much of South
Central Texas leading to a cloudy, rainy, and cool weekend. Highs
on Saturday will be in the 40s, about 15 degrees below where we
should be for the last few days of the year. Rainfall amounts from
the showers will be light, with only a few hundredths of an inch
expected Friday night into Saturday.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The isentropic lift resulting from the coastal trough will continue
Saturday night into Sunday keeping the rain showers, cloud cover and
cooler temperatures in the forecast. With cloud cover in place
overnight lows Saturday into Sunday will stay above freezing, but
will drop into the mid to upper 30s, around 5 degrees below seasonal
normals. Across the Southwestern United States a positively tilted
trough will drop down through Arizona and begin to progress eastward
during the day on Sunday. As the larger trough traverses the state
moisture will converge along a Pacific front associated with the
trough. At the same time the coastal trough that will bring us the
rainy weekend will be pulled north into the larger flow. This
convergence will result in the increase in precipitable water values
to between 1 to 1.5 inches based on the NAM/GFS/SREF. According to
the SPC PW climatology for the DRT and CRP sounding sites this is
well above the moving average for late December. In short, this
means that as the Pacific front and trough move through Sunday night
and Monday morning we will have the best shot of rain out of the next
7 days. Rather than a few hundredths expected on Saturday and Sunday
the front could bring a quick shot of between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch
of rain before moving east of the area by Monday afternoon. Monday
will see a drying and clearing trend, with slightly warmer afternoon
highs, near normal, in the low 60s.

For those who will be out and about on the evening of the 31st
celebrating the new year temperatures will be in the 40s as the
clock strikes midnight under partly cloudy skies. The `warm up` will
be short lived as a dry, more polar front will push south across
Texas on Tuesday which will drop highs back down into the 40s and 50s
for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Tuesday will be dry and
partly cloudy behind the front as drier air works into South Central
Texas.

Wednesday the next trough will drop into the Southwestern U.S. and
will draw in some mid-level moisture over Tuesday`s front which will
be along the Texas Coast at this point. The GFS and ECMWF both show
light showers possible along and east of I-35 for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. As the trough moves east of Texas on Thursday surface high
pressure builds back over the state drying out the weather once more
returning the area to mostly sunny and slowly warming conditions.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be warming from the 50s into the
60s, but will remain below or near seasonal normals.

With much colder temperatures in place and a few chances of rain over
the next few days one might take a peak at the models and wonder
about the possibility of any frozen precipitation. At this point we
continue to run with a completely liquid forecast, but lets briefly
dive into the details. The first opportunity where the models have
at least hinted at the possibility of frozen precipitation is Sunday
morning. With cold air in place from the surface high and isentropic
lift from the coastal trough precipitation could be ongoing with
temperatures in the mid 30s. The ECMWF and GFS keep our area just
above the freezing mark with temperatures in the Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau from 33 to 35. Looking at model soundings there will
be a warm nose aloft (temperatures well above freezing) which will
keep all of the precipitation a cold rain. The next chance would be
with the isentropic upglide Wednesday morning over Tuesday`s strong
front. Temperatures in this case will be colder than over the
weekend, with lows in the Hill Country in the upper 20s and near
freezing along I-35. In this case model soundings would support some
type of frozen precipitation with the colder air aloft and at the
surface BUT (and it is a big BUT) between the GFS, ECMWF, and the
GFS-FV3 (the new version of the GFS coming soon) they keep the area
either completely dry or show the showers to the east of I-35 where
surface temperatures will remain above freezing. While you might look
online at model output precip type and see some pinks and purples
pop up confidence is way to low right now in the freezing line and
where the precipitation will be on Wednesday to indicate anything
other than cold rain in the forecast. If you have made it this far,
long story short as 2018 turns into 2019 it will finally feel like
Winter again across South Central Texas with a few days of cold rain
over the next 7 days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

A quick update with the game day forecast for those of you headed here to Jacksonville , FL to attend the Gator Bowl. game on New Year's Eve night: It will be beautiful weather-wise!

Monday: Mostly Sunny with daytime high near 80.

Temperature by start of the game into the mid-upper 60s.

It will be unseasonably warm here for all the Texas A&M Aggies fans heading here for the game to take on N.C. State. Safe travels here to Jax and enjoy the game and your time here ringing in 2019.

BTW, immediately after the game, country music recording artist Cole Swindell will perform a concert at TIAA Bank Field to ring in 2019... Enjoy!

Shorts weather for the tailgate and game.

[EnnisTx]

A quick update with the game day forecast for those of you headed here to Jacksonville , FL to attend the Gator Bowl. game on New Year's Eve night: It will be beautiful weather-wise!

Monday: Mostly Sunny with daytime high near 80.

Temperature by start of the game into the mid-upper 60s.

It will be unseasonably warm here for all the Texas A&M Aggies fans heading here for the game to take on N.C. State. Safe travels here to Jax and enjoy the game and your time here ringing in 2019.

BTW, immediately after the game, country music recording artist Cole Swindell will perform a concert at TIAA Bank Field to ring in 2019... Enjoy!

Shorts weather for the tailgate and game.

Well it should be in the 40's here for the Cotton Bowl Semifinal game. I will still be wearing shorts, but my tail gating will be in the club level buffet.The best part will be the open bar!