Texas Winter 2025-2026

[wxman22]

The CMC shows a winter storm fwiw.

[Stratton23]

Yup, wouldnt take much of a shift on the GFS/CMC more west and that could be a full blown winter storm state wide, euro up next

[wxman22]

Yup, wouldnt take much of a shift on the GFS/CMC more west and that could be a full blown winter storm state wide, euro up next

Yep if that trough digs more to the west we *may be in business for a big storm.

[Cpv17]

Yup, wouldnt take much of a shift on the GFS/CMC more west and that could be a full blown winter storm state wide, euro up next

Yep if that trough digs more to the west we *may be in business for a big storm.

Do the models still show ridging over the SW? Kinda need that to go away..

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 a little bit, its mainly the west coast ridging that becomes the EPO, on this gfs run the west coast ridge is more inland which is why the shortwave doesnt dig as much , if we get it to trend offshore by 50-100 miles, it makes a huge difference on how far west the shortwave can dig

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I need an AR to hit the Rockies during the last week of January. Going to Crested Butte for the week!

[wxman22]

I think we can say now that the “fun” model runs have started. Whether it amounts to a real storm or not as another story though. At least we have something to track finally.

[txtwister78]

Too much pacific air involved from the west. The upcoming mid month pattern continues to look a lot like what we saw in early December. Glancing shots perhaps of some colder air with pacific air quickly building back in though.

Obviously given the time of year (heart of winter territory) max temps are somewhat tempered from the upper 70's and 80's we've seen but nothing earth shattering.

[Ntxw]

Yup, wouldnt take much of a shift on the GFS/CMC more west and that could be a full blown winter storm state wide, euro up next

Yep if that trough digs more to the west we *may be in business for a big storm.

Do the models still show ridging over the SW? Kinda need that to go away..

Not saying it will happen but if it does every cold wave this season starting back in November, the first big one, have all went the same path. Core midwest and lakes to the southeast. We have been on the western fringe of these air masses. Will be an interesting post season review.

[wxman22]

It’s been a very classic La Niña pattern.I’m looking forward to El Niño. All of these La Nina’s over the past 5 years have gotten old…

[DallasAg]

I need an AR to hit the Rockies during the last week of January. Going to Crested Butte for the week!

TRUTH. CB has been suffering this year. I cancelled my opening week trip at Thanksgiving because there really wasn't any snow. 2/3 of the mountain still isn't open, and rentals/tourism is really starting to suffer. Means there is some bargain hunting if you're just looking to escape to the mountains for the weekend. But selfishly I want to see a ton of snow up there for the sake of wildflower and fire season this summer.

[rwfromkansas]

There’s enough consistency in the models that I’m starting to buy into the shortwave on the 17th. The question is, will it be able to tap into moisture and will temps be cold enough to support a storm.

Definitely gonna be legit snow in Kansas and the Panhandle today. It's been awhile

My hometown in KS will get an inch or maybe up to 2 today, looks like western KS will jackpot, which is good for them since they haven't seen much this winter. Maybe that will be good to allow storms to impact further west?

[rwfromkansas]

12z gfs bit east this round. Dream run for the eastern US especially the southeast.

I’ve noticed the CPC thinks it’ll be mainly east of us as well.

Welp. Or as I would have said in the Midwest, ope. Hope that changes, but from what we have seen this winter, it won't. We need something to shake things up for it to do so.

[Ntxw]

Some storms have developed SW of the metroplex, hopefully they hold together might see some rain before the front sweeps through. Some activity also in SE Texas.

[Stratton23]

We dont need the core of the coldest air to have fun down here, last january is a perfect example of that, enswmble support right now is low for that storm system on the 18/19th, but it is far out, so plenty of things can change

[Ntxw]

We dont need the core of the coldest air to have fun down here, last january is a perfect example of that, enswmble support right now is low for that storm system on the 18/19th, but it is far out, so plenty of things can change

I certainly hope it trends the other direction. The concern and mental note (been beaten down this season!) is every single trough that has been modeled westward, once the timeline moves in continues to trend east. I don't want super cold anyway either, but the other problem is the upper level trend is also drying out the upper atmosphere with the extended ridging that persists. It's hard for systems to break through and/or get moisture this way. Just a rant out of frustration, I really hope it is different this time.

[Harp.1]

Someone let us know the Euro results please.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah the trend all winter so far with everything east has been A** for sure lol, but I still definitely think their is room for this next shortwave to dig further out west, still 9-10 days out, if that GEFS just shifts the west coast ridge even 50-100 miles west, we might be talking a new ball game

[wxman22]

The Euro looks about the same. For the last few runs it’s been hinting at a light wintry mix in portions of North and Central Texas with the trough next weekend fwiw.

[TomballEd]

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