Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Sabanic]

Still saying we will get snow . . .


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

EXPECT MOSTLY
SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65 BY 10 AM...WITH SNOW
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT

CURRENTLY THINKING THAT ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH
WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH RATIOS BETWEEN 8:1 AND 10:1. THIS SUPPORTS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS
RAIN...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND HIGHER IN SOME AREAS TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MATERIALIZE.

[offroadjeeps]

Come on snow, don't fail us now

[Snowluvr]

Getting moderate snow (huge flakes) here in Lucedale now.

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL/SE MS THRU CNTRL/SRN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 121133Z - 121530Z

THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA. RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
YIELD SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...INCLUDING ON ROAD SURFACES...
DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS
HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN AN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY
INTENSIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH IS PROGGED TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
GULF COAST THROUGH MID DAY.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA ARE ALREADY LARGELY SATURATED...AND NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. A FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AS A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PASSES TO THE SOUTH.


WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM...STRENGTHENING LIFT
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYER APPEAR LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OR CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY SNOW. DESPITE LOW SNOW TO
LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS...RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF .75 TO 1+ INCHES MAY SUPPORT 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES. THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
HATTIESBURG MS INTO THE VICINITY OF MONTGOMERY AL AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR DURING THE 13-17Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 02/12/2010

[Sabanic]

They are saying it will be this morning. Snowing in Lucedale? Now that's just up the road from here. Maybe . . . Just maybe . . . .

[smw1981]

Sabanic..it wasn't supposed to snow here until this morning or maybe even around noon! I am getting a rain/sleet mix here off university now, and fox 10 just reported that they have reports and pictures showing that it is snowing in citronelle. It will work it's way down, don't worry!

[Sabanic]

Thanks SMW. Just really excited as so many others are . .

[Snowluvr]

Already about 1/2 inch of snow on the vehicles and its sticking on the ground as well.

[Sabanic]

Already about 1/2 inch of snow on the vehicles and its sticking on the ground as well.

Now that gives me even more hope

[baygirl_1]

Getting excited-- WKRG showing snow coming down pretty good in Citronelle!! That is just up Highway 45 from us!

[Farseer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MEDIUM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING. MSAS 11Z ANALYSIS
PLACES THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY. STRONG OVERRUNNING IS OCCURRING
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM STONE AND GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MS...ACROSS EXTREME SW ALABAMA...AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A MIX OF MODERATE RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTH. SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN FORECAST MID LEVEL
AIRMASS CENTERED AROUND 850 MB HAS PREVENTED THE SNOW LINE FROM
WORKING ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH THEN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... THE SNOW LINE WILL
EVENTUALLY MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. EXPECT MOSTLY
SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65 BY 10 AM...WITH SNOW
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH NEAR A HALF INCH
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND DESTIN.
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH
WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH RATIOS BETWEEN 8:1 AND 10:1. THIS SUPPORTS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS
RAIN...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. AGAIN...HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
BANDS THAT MATERIALIZE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WE GENERALLY EXPECT
LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF SNOW AS THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 30S ALONG
THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. /22

projected total snow accumulations

[hurley311]

It better start doing something here and FAST. If not, I am going to have a very ill 4 year old in about an hour or so.

[Janie2006]

WKRG also reporting snow at Mt. Vernon. Clearly the snow line is moving south and east.

[TideJoe]

We have a little over an inch in Hattiesburg and it's snowing pretty hard now. Hopefully we'll see 4-6" before it's all over.

[Jag95]

There are some slightly frozen raindrops hitting my windshield in west mobile.

[Turtle]

We got 5" in Marshall, TX. It's still snowing lightly right now.

[baygirl_1]

There are some slightly frozen raindrops hitting my windshield in west mobile.

Yeah, I'm seeing some flakes starting to mix in with the rain here around Hillcrest Rd. John Nodar said it should changeover in about an hour. Hope so!

[timNms]

We have about 3 inches of snow on the ground with moderate snowfall. Flakes are not very big, but steadily coming down.

[JSDS]

Finally! We're getting snow in Denham Springs (just east of Baton Rouge). I'm sure glad they closed state offices so I could stay home.

[MSUChristian88]

UGH, Once again Starkville, MS gets left out on the snow!! WHy must we be cursed!!!!