Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

So far, I have been successful in keeping the Arctic air bottled up around the Pole and across the Pole in Siberia. Looking at the latest GFS, FV3 GFS, and Euro, I do see a hint of cross-Polar flow developing around January 11th-12th, but the flow is quite abbreviated and doesn't drive the Arctic air very far southward. The New Year's cold front will bring some air from western Canada down, but it's not that cold. Any snow chances for NE TX may have to wait until after mid-month.

Next weekend looks interesting (if you like above-normal temps). Highs in the 70s. Not warm, but not cold:

[bubba hotep]

About 30% of the 00z Euro EPS members show at least minor accumulations of snow for areas from DFW over towards the ArkLaTex. The control run plus another 3 or 4 members show accumulations of 2" or greater across the same area. The column looks cold enough to support snow but the challenge will be getting enough moisture to squeeze out some accumulations.

[bubba hotep]

It looks like DFW could pick up another 3/4 - 1" of rain before the EOY. That will put '18 far ahead of the previous Rainy Year Champion but still well behind '15. I see some interesting similarities across the Pacific to the Winter of '14/15, could we see another really wet year in '19?

[Ntxw]

Alright folks time to get this thread rolling.

Strong upper disturbance will kick out this weekend and induce yet another rain event. Then followed by a surge of colder air and another strong disturbance. For some days most models keep this feature strung out and sheared but the GFS runs and Euro runs have given opportunity for a strong system to roll out of New Mexico. Definitely would keep an eye on this if moisture can be had from North/Northeast/East Texas middle of the week.



Don't let the heat miser fool you with warm maps. The next 7 days look chilly.

[Ntxw]

Despite a warmer than normal December so far at DFW, the extreme warmth did not occur like the past several winters. High so far in December is only 72 and that happened on the first day of the month.

[gpsnowman]

Alright folks time to get this thread rolling.

Strong upper disturbance will kick out this weekend and induce yet another rain event. Then followed by a surge of colder air and another strong disturbance. For some days most models keep this feature strung out and sheared but the GFS runs and Euro runs have given opportunity for a strong system to roll out of New Mexico. Definitely would keep an eye on this if moisture can be had from North/Northeast/East Texas middle of the week.

https://images2.imgbox.com/c0/b5/J2TZrMmz_o.png

Don't let the heat miser fool you with warm maps. The next 7 days look chilly.

Fox 4 this morning had a high of 38 with 20% mixed bag for next Wednesday. Keep hope alive!!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Alright folks time to get this thread rolling.

Strong upper disturbance will kick out this weekend and induce yet another rain event. Then followed by a surge of colder air and another strong disturbance. For some days most models keep this feature strung out and sheared but the GFS runs and Euro runs have given opportunity for a strong system to roll out of New Mexico. Definitely would keep an eye on this if moisture can be had from North/Northeast/East Texas middle of the week.

https://images2.imgbox.com/c0/b5/J2TZrMmz_o.png

Don't let the heat miser fool you with warm maps. The next 7 days look chilly.

Exactly, don’t feed the heat troll!

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are still showing the potential for snow next Wed forcing NWS to start hedging it into the forecast. It looks like a snow or nothing kind of deal for N and NE TX, if it is further south then more of a mix. All depends on how the upper low tracks and if it stays intact. This could be a nice I-20 tracking closed upper low. Euro members seem to be focusing on Sulphur Springs and surrounding areas on recent runs. This is similar to what we had before Christmas but with an Arctic air mass in place this time and the low looks to stay further away from the Gulf so that will limit how much warm air it wraps in. I am hesitant to go all in until next week though.

What makes this tricky for me is I have called a inter-department meeting in Houston on Thu morning with people travelling from various parts of the state. We are off on Mon and Tues so I hate to cancel last minute on Wed but there is not enough info on this storm yet to make a solid call yet.

[TexasStorm]

Does TxDOT know something we don’t? Most of the signs around DFW today say ‘Watch for Winter Weather Road Crews’

[Brent]

Does TxDOT know something we don’t? Most of the signs around DFW today say ‘Watch for Winter Weather Road Crews’

money to burn at the end of the year?

12z Euro is really close to snowing in Dallas Wednesday Night

[wxman57]

Alright folks time to get this thread rolling.

Strong upper disturbance will kick out this weekend and induce yet another rain event. Then followed by a surge of colder air and another strong disturbance. For some days most models keep this feature strung out and sheared but the GFS runs and Euro runs have given opportunity for a strong system to roll out of New Mexico. Definitely would keep an eye on this if moisture can be had from North/Northeast/East Texas middle of the week.

https://images2.imgbox.com/c0/b5/J2TZrMmz_o.png

Don't let the heat miser fool you with warm maps. The next 7 days look chilly.

Exactly, don’t feed the heat troll!

I'm coming for you, Texas Snowman!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the 0Z Euro ensemble members 60% show accumulating snow somewhere in N, C, E or SE TX. That being said very few members show heavy snow anywhere (+4"). The epicenter looks to be the I-20 and I-30 corridors of NE TX where >50% of members show accumulating snow. If I had to make a map today based on available data I would go with 1-3" for NE TX and flurries to an inch elsewhere north of I-10. With this kind of system there will likely be a hot spot of heavy snow though.

[wxman57]

On a more serious note, I'm looking at the projected 500mb flow in the GFS & FV3 GFS and don't see any prediction of a flow pattern that would bring Arctic south into the U.S. over the next two weeks. In order to have some significant snow across Texas (D-FW south to Houston), we need colder air than has been coming down the Plains. The predicted flow in the Euro is more favorable for getting some colder air down south. Considering how badly the GFS is with its long-range forecasts, I'd put more faith in the Euro's forecast. Still, I think we (TX) will have to wait until after January 15th for any reasonable shot at accumulating snow.

[bubba hotep]

Does TxDOT know something we don’t? Most of the signs around DFW today say ‘Watch for Winter Weather Road Crews’

money to burn at the end of the year?

12z Euro is really close to snowing in Dallas Wednesday Night

Northern stream vort is much weaker this run. That allows for a much better looking vort pass for DFW, baby steps.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro misses DFW to the E & SE lol, it will never snow in DFW again! (turn your sarcasm meters on)

[bubba hotep]

Quick look, temps start above freezing but fall into the upper 20s across DFW as snow is falling, the column looks below freezing all the way up. Anything that falls would probably fall as snow based on this run with the surface possibly limiting accumulations early on.

[Haris]

Of course the euro shows a chance of winter weather when I am not in Austin

[Ralph's Weather]

On a more serious note, I'm looking at the projected 500mb flow in the GFS & FV3 GFS and don't see any prediction of a flow pattern that would bring Arctic south into the U.S. over the next two weeks. In order to have some significant snow across Texas (D-FW south to Houston), we need colder air than has been coming down the Plains. The predicted flow in the Euro is more favorable for getting some colder air down south. Considering how badly the GFS is with its long-range forecasts, I'd put more faith in the Euro's forecast. Still, I think we (TX) will have to wait until after January 15th for any reasonable shot at accumulating snow.

You may well be right. I have been targeting mid Jan for a while. This storm will be entering a colder air mass than the mid December one had though moisture will likely be more limited.

[Ntxw]

Does TxDOT know something we don’t? Most of the signs around DFW today say ‘Watch for Winter Weather Road Crews’

money to burn at the end of the year?

12z Euro is really close to snowing in Dallas Wednesday Night

It's very close to a significant event. If the precip shield is a tad further north and west then we might be looking at some advisory criteria. Still many hours out still but at the least it's looking like the possibility of at least it snowing is increasing.

NAM will probably show some spectacular runs initially to get us all worked up soon

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Euro is much slower and deeper with the low on Wed making it more of a Wed night storm for E TX increasing accumulation potential over here. Many model runs to go yet.