Texas Winter 2023-2024

[rwfromkansas]

I used to think it was harder to get snow here because it’s harder to get cold.

But, really it’s because you need cold and a system. And moisture. It’s harder to get all of that at one time here.

Heck, up north you can just build a snowgun and make your own snow. Here, it would barely get used.

Anyway, glad we have something to track at least.

[Itryatgolf]

Can someone post the results of the Euro once it runs? Thanks.

It will be an important run!! I do know that

[wxman57]

I plotted the 12Z GFS for Houston (north Houston - IAH). Brief, hard freeze next Tuesday then a steady warm-up. No precip in the cold air. Still way too far out to have any confidence in any model's solution.

[wxman57]

Same 12Z GFS plot for DFW. Kind of cold next Tuesday, then a warm-up. No winter weather, just dry cold.

[txtwister78]

I used to think it was harder to get snow here because it’s harder to get cold.

But, really it’s because you need cold and a system. And moisture. It’s harder to get all of that at one time here.

Heck, up north you can just build a snowgun and make your own snow. Here, it would barely get used.

Anyway, glad we have something to track at least.

Warmer climate means you typically get more shallow arctic air events (ice rather than snow) due to the warmer air aloft. It's also why models struggle with projecting cold closer to the surface further south during these arctic outbreaks.

Typically to get snow (not always), you need the arctic air but also an Upper Level Low to traverse along and cool those layers above. Those particular ingredients are harder to pull off down here obviously, but as we've seen before they're definitely not impossible. Sometimes the upper level low alone (if its powerful enough) will do it for you with just continental polar air involved. We're seeing that play out further north.

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

Now thats an amazing run by the euro!

[Ntxw]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705320000-ckfhzj5xqJg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705341600-CvcnbYzzGY8.png

That's snow in the teens up north.

[HockeyTx82]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705320000-ckfhzj5xqJg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705341600-CvcnbYzzGY8.png

That's snow in the teens up north.

But wxman57 just said dry cold.......

[Tireman4]

I plotted the 12Z GFS for Houston (north Houston - IAH). Brief, hard freeze next Tuesday then a steady warm-up. No precip in the cold air. Still way too far out to have any confidence in any model's solution.

http://wxman57.com/images/IAHGFS.JPG

But sir, the Euro? I was just getting my Summer gear out. Sigh.

[Iceresistance]

This is not good

 https://twitter.com/RealBlueony/status/1744424744986837492

[Ntxw]

If you believe the Euro much of north Texas goes below freezing early Sunday and stay below freezing until at least Weds. High pressure settles over the state so some chilly lows towards the back end.

For Central Texas it's late Sunday into early Monday and same ordeal until at least Weds. Heat Miser casa below freezing Monday.

[orangeblood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705320000-ckfhzj5xqJg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705341600-CvcnbYzzGY8.png

That's snow in the teens up north.

with 35 mph plus wind gusts . Enjoyable to look at but long ways to go....

[txtwister78]

12z Euro is just a little faster all around with bringing that energy/impulse out but also blast the arctic cold deeper into the state. This is why timing is going to be so critical as we get closer to the target period. Still a lot to watch but the Euro for now is clearly holding firm on the threat for winter precip early next week.

[Tireman4]

If you believe the Euro much of north Texas goes below freezing early Sunday and stay below freezing until at least Weds. High pressure settles over the state so some chilly lows towards the back end.

For Central Texas it's late Sunday into early Monday and same ordeal until at least Weds. Heat Miser casa below freezing Monday.

As our long range guy and he, our hurricane specialist, I shall prepare for the worst. Shall I send a snow plow to him?

[South Texas Storms]

1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!

Wow, way more than expected, congrats! Most models had your area seeing up to 0.75 inch at most.

[wxman57]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705320000-ckfhzj5xqJg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1704715200/1705341600-CvcnbYzzGY8.png

That's snow in the teens up north.

But wxman57 just said dry cold.......

I said that the GFS was forecasting dry cold. Big difference from me forecasting it. By the way, the EC is the only model (out of GFS, CMC, and ICON) forecasting any precip in the cold.

[Ntxw]

If you believe the Euro much of north Texas goes below freezing early Sunday and stay below freezing until at least Weds. High pressure settles over the state so some chilly lows towards the back end.

For Central Texas it's late Sunday into early Monday and same ordeal until at least Weds. Heat Miser casa below freezing Monday.

As our long range guy and he, our hurricane specialist, I shall prepare for the worst. Shall I send a snow plow to him?

He will need it! Anything under 100F is too cold for him.

[Ntxw]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

[Portastorm]

Today's "little" front is nothing to sneeze at ... temperatures in Travis County dropped some 20 degrees in about an hour. NW winds now already gusting between 30-40 mph and that is supposed to continue until tomorrow morning with an increase in gusts to close to 50 mph!

Unfortunately we just got some spits of rain. The front boat-raced the Hill Country convection this morning so that took any "oompf" out of the rains.