Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

12Z GFS still showing a major Texas snowstorm like the 6Z run.

https://i.ibb.co/ThFLv8R/gfs-deterministic-tx-instant-ptype-6424000-1.png

Looks good. She's a beaut Clark.

[wxman22]

The reason why its showing such a large storm is that it is now phasing the northern stream with the southern shortwave. Posting this for entertainment purposes only to bring in the New Year! LOL

[Ntxw]

The reason why its showing such a large storm is that it is now phasing the northern stream with the southern shortwave. Posting this for entertainment purposes only to bring in the New Year! LOL

https://i.ibb.co/pPf2ccs/sn10-acc-imp-us-sc-1.png

Phasing will kick it out faster, at the same time, also tends to provide a little more colder air. Of course now Waco is cursed.

[wxman22]

12Z CMC now phasing the energy also.

[gpsnowman]

Got a busy day on tap. College football, fresh New Years tamales, and laptop to refresh S2K every so often. Happy New Year and keep the faith regarding winter.

[WacoWx]

The reason why its showing such a large storm is that it is now phasing the northern stream with the southern shortwave. Posting this for entertainment purposes only to bring in the New Year! LOL

https://i.ibb.co/pPf2ccs/sn10-acc-imp-us-sc-1.png

Phasing will kick it out faster, at the same time, also tends to provide a little more colder air. Of course now Waco is cursed.

Waco is only cursed weather-wise when I am physically there.

Fun weather hates me.

[orangeblood]

Got a busy day on tap. College football, fresh New Years tamales, and laptop to refresh S2K every so often. Happy New Year and keep the faith regarding winter.

Doesn’t get much better than that! Happy New Year to all!

[Brent]

Still a snow hole over me on the GFS

Unbelievable

[Cpv17]

Keep the faith everyone. Still a long ways to go. The signal is still there.

[Gotwood]

Still a snow hole over me on the GFS

Unbelievable

Don’t lose hope lots of winter left it will happen and most likely sooner rather than later

[bubba hotep]

Time to start getting hyped for some Texas winter wx

[wxman22]

These kind of setups can give Texas multi day winter storms, as you get numerous disturbances moving over the state in the southwest flow aloft. With cold air already in place. Pretty good agreement between the GFS and CMC for hour 180, even though it will probably change in the next run. LOL

[Gotwood]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

[Cpv17]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

[Ntxw]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

A +PNA seldom delivers extreme cold for us, gulf coast and Florida almost exclusively needs +PNA as it drives cold into their region. With the right trough and storms underneath the +PNA we can get snow as it sends the storm track very far to the south east of the divide. If coupled with a -AO it can be a steady, long duration cold period because our wind direction is predominantly N or NW rather than W-SW.

[bubba hotep]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgOWPfNWcAA6zeY?format=jpg&name=medium

Lol

[WinterMax]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

With all due respect it doesn’t happen every time, if seen many occasions in situations like this where the models slowly warm up run by run, as it gets in better range.

[orangeblood]

These kind of setups can give Texas multi day winter storms, as you get numerous disturbances moving over the state in the southwest flow aloft. With cold air already in place. Pretty good agreement between the GFS and CMC for hour 180, even though it will probably change in the next run. LOL

https://i.ibb.co/XkdshGj/gfs-z500a-us-31.png

https://i.ibb.co/6Njc9p1/gem-z500a-us-31.png

To add to the drama, Ops now look great but have no support from their ensembles for a Texas winter storm. Model Insanity!

[Brent]

Also new PNA guidance has it never getting above 1 on the index. It actually has it curving back towards neutral mid month. I have a hard time believing a barely positive PNA is going to be able to drive Arctic air away from Texas. Feel like we go through this with every Arctic front these days.

Remember, we’re in the medium range where the models lose the cold. Happens every time.

With all due respect it doesn’t happen every time, if seen many occasions in situations like this where the models slowly warm up run by run, as it gets in better range.

Yeah I'm really hoping Sunday can happen here. People said it would shift south so come on. We haven't had a good trend in 3 years

Because I have no confidence in that storm next week being this far north and I'm not gonna sit here and watch it go around us again