Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

Too much pacific air involved from the west. The upcoming mid month pattern continues to look a lot like what we saw in early December. Glancing shots perhaps of some colder air with pacific air quickly building back in though.

Obviously given the time of year (heart of winter territory) max temps are somewhat tempered from the upper 70's and 80's we've seen but nothing earth shattering.

I’ve learned not to get excited until you do. I am betting on the more eastern solutions to win out again.

[txtwister78]

The Euro looks about the same. For the last few runs it’s been hinting at a light wintry mix in portions of North and Central Texas with the trough next weekend fwiw.

Not much of a hint there in my opinion. Bulk of the "colder air" such as it is on the 12z run and better mousture/ precip along with it stays NE/E of Texas.

Btw...those AI's some were pointing to a few days ago....talk about u-g-l-y. The GEFS ensemble in the long range also looks warm over Texas.

[TheAustinMan]

Fairly even split between ensemble members in either showing next weekend's trough amplifying farther east over the Midwest (Clusters 1 and 2 below, approximately 54% of EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensembles) or being able to tilt and stretch southwest (Clusters 3 and 4, approximately 46% of ensembles), both when grouping all of the ensembles together and when considering each ensemble separately. As always, it's the age-old dilemma between colder/drier versus warmer/wetter. Still far out, though the recent ensemble trends have been towards the drier solutions (e.g. GEFS, EPS). Given the variation upstream, probably won't be until about Wed/Thu when ensembles lock in more on the trough placement. We'll need the Pacific/Alaska ridge next week to amplify just a little earlier and a little more to improve the prospects of getting the trough to come down farther west.

Source: WPC Cluster Prototype Page

[Stratton23]

ill be back when we have have snow on the ground and temps in the 20’s , calling it, we are getting a big event on the 19-20th ,putting all my chips on the table here

[txtwister78]

Too much pacific air involved from the west. The upcoming mid month pattern continues to look a lot like what we saw in early December. Glancing shots perhaps of some colder air with pacific air quickly building back in though.

Obviously given the time of year (heart of winter territory) max temps are somewhat tempered from the upper 70's and 80's we've seen but nothing earth shattering.

I’ve learned not to get excited until you do. I am betting on the more eastern solutions to win out again.

Unfortunately not a whole lot to get excited about if you're rooting for some sustained cold air with moisture involved.

Carbon copy of what I saw coming in early December and it just hasn't flipped yet. Reminds me of our heat high patterns in the summer. Hard to break once they lock in.

We've still got several weeks to follow obviously but with the heart of winter quickly approaching for us in the south you would certainly like to see models going in a different direction if cold/winter weather is your preference.

[Stratton23]

Im going all in on my prediction lol, I just have a feeling a surprise is coming, the MJO rotation is looking even more favorable this afternoon, somethings gotta give

[wxman22]

The Euro looks about the same. For the last few runs it’s been hinting at a light wintry mix in portions of North and Central Texas with the trough next weekend fwiw.

Not much of a hint there in my opinion. Bulk of the "colder air" such as it is on the 12z run and better mousture/ precip along with it stays NE/E of Texas.

Btw...those AI's some were pointing to a few days ago....talk about u-g-l-y. The GEFS ensemble in the long range also looks warm over Texas.

Agree , I didn’t say it was a strong signal or anything. Just saying verbatim what it shows, that’s all.

[Stratton23]

lol 12z CFS

[Harp.1]

lol 12z CFS

What??

[Stratton23]

Very cold, but its the CFS, im just looking for something that isnt a snooze fest

[bubba hotep]

We dont need the core of the coldest air to have fun down here, last january is a perfect example of that, enswmble support right now is low for that storm system on the 18/19th, but it is far out, so plenty of things can change

I certainly hope it trends the other direction. The concern and mental note (been beaten down this season!) is every single trough that has been modeled westward, once the timeline moves in continues to trend east. I don't want super cold anyway either, but the other problem is the upper level trend is also drying out the upper atmosphere with the extended ridging that persists. It's hard for systems to break through and/or get moisture this way. Just a rant out of frustration, I really hope it is different this time.

https://i.imgur.com/Jo0o9J1.gif

Yeah, basically every soaking rain storm in the longer range has been dropped by the models. It's been super frustrating, but typical for the top analogs for this winter. The brightside is that the ENSO transition is full speed ahead, and that should bring wetter conditions sooner than we typically see in these transition years.

[snownado]

And what so you know. Widesprain (stratiform) rain moving into parts of DFW right now.

Massive forecast bust...

[Lagreeneyes03]

We dont need the core of the coldest air to have fun down here, last january is a perfect example of that, enswmble support right now is low for that storm system on the 18/19th, but it is far out, so plenty of things can change

I certainly hope it trends the other direction. The concern and mental note (been beaten down this season!) is every single trough that has been modeled westward, once the timeline moves in continues to trend east. I don't want super cold anyway either, but the other problem is the upper level trend is also drying out the upper atmosphere with the extended ridging that persists. It's hard for systems to break through and/or get moisture this way. Just a rant out of frustration, I really hope it is different this time.

https://i.imgur.com/Jo0o9J1.gif

Yeah, basically every soaking rain storm in the longer range has been dropped by the models. It's been super frustrating, but typical for the top analogs for this winter. The brightside is that the ENSO transition is full speed ahead, and that should bring wetter conditions sooner than we typically see in these transition years.

Sooner as in hope for Feb or sooner as in active severe season in the Spring?

[bubba hotep]

12z EPS continues the warming trend after a period of runs with near- or slightly below-normal temperatures.

[Ntxw]

We dont need the core of the coldest air to have fun down here, last january is a perfect example of that, enswmble support right now is low for that storm system on the 18/19th, but it is far out, so plenty of things can change

I certainly hope it trends the other direction. The concern and mental note (been beaten down this season!) is every single trough that has been modeled westward, once the timeline moves in continues to trend east. I don't want super cold anyway either, but the other problem is the upper level trend is also drying out the upper atmosphere with the extended ridging that persists. It's hard for systems to break through and/or get moisture this way. Just a rant out of frustration, I really hope it is different this time.

https://i.imgur.com/Jo0o9J1.gif

Yeah, basically every soaking rain storm in the longer range has been dropped by the models. It's been super frustrating, but typical for the top analogs for this winter. The brightside is that the ENSO transition is full speed ahead, and that should bring wetter conditions sooner than we typically see in these transition years.

I am very biased to El Nino (enso is second passion to winter) because it tends to bring exciting weather to Texas. If the enso transition analogs are correct we might be looking at a very wet (and stormy) Spring and/or Fall! No voodoo split forcing 2023 half nino half nina type thing either. Give me a classic Nino with IDL forcing.

[Ntxw]

Will say this, need to cash in during ~20th week period. If swing and a miss, then we know for sure the deck is stacked against us and it will be another ~week or two down the road. There is that ridging consistency elephant in the room. Maybe even week 2 of Feb...but hey the weeklies show second week of Feb with lower heights in the west, that's different...I guess.

[Stratton23]

Ive been around for some miserable winters, but this one is definitely in the top 5 for me personally, I hope my prediction is right around the 20th, El nino cant get here soon enough

[Ntxw]

Ive been around for some miserable winters, but this one is definitely in the top 5 for me personally, I hope my prediction is right around the 20th, El nino cant get here soon enough

With you my friend! I can live with winter warmth, it does and will get warm. But the cause of it is the concern not that it gets warm. We've all been through many winters together and know warm begets warmth and cold begets cold. It's not the one-off up and down.

[rwfromkansas]

lol 12z CFS

It has been predicting cold all winter. Toss it.

I think it's time to look to El Nino.

[rwfromkansas]

12z EPS continues the warming trend after a period of runs with near- or slightly below-normal temperatures.

I think that calls it. Maybe February?