Texas Winter 2023-2024

[TropicalTundra]

TWC says 40% chance at snow and lows in teens Monday (for me at least). Weird they're calling it this far out.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro is just a little faster all around with bringing that energy/impulse out but also blast the arctic cold deeper into the state. This is why timing is going to be so critical as we get closer to the target period. Still a lot to watch but the Euro for now is clearly holding firm on the threat for winter precip early next week.

Long live "The King."

[wxman57]

If you believe the Euro much of north Texas goes below freezing early Sunday and stay below freezing until at least Weds. High pressure settles over the state so some chilly lows towards the back end.

For Central Texas it's late Sunday into early Monday and same ordeal until at least Weds. Heat Miser casa below freezing Monday.

As our long range guy and he, our hurricane specialist, I shall prepare for the worst. Shall I send a snow plow to him?

He will need it! Anything under 100F is too cold for him.

100F?? You're giving me the chills.

[TropicalTundra]

As our long range guy and he, our hurricane specialist, I shall prepare for the worst. Shall I send a snow plow to him?

He will need it! Anything under 100F is too cold for him.

100F?? You're giving me the chills.

Do you, like, live in an oven or something?

[WacoWx]

This is not good

https://twitter.com/RealBlueony/status/1744424744986837492

National Championship is in Houston tonight.

[jasons2k]

Tornado Watch Coming:

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 081854Z - 082100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are continuing to slowly intensify, with the issuance of a tornado watch likely in the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to intensify across parts of east TX and western LA, mainly along and north of a surface warm front that extends from north of HOU to east of ACT. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s, with MLCAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg. VAD profiles near the warm front show very strong low-level vertical shear with 0-3km SRH values of 500 and 900 m2/s2 at HGX and LCH.

Thus far, thunderstorms have been elevated with primarily a large hail threat. Recent CAM solutions suggest that continued daytime heating will begin to aid convective development along the immediate warm front to the west of HOU in the next couple of hours, which would potentially have a greater risk of surface-based supercells and an attendant threat of tornadoes - along with large hail and damaging winds. This area is being closely monitored for convective development and potential tornado watch issuance.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[Tireman4]

Today's "little" front is nothing to sneeze at ... temperatures in Travis County dropped some 20 degrees in about an hour. NW winds now already gusting between 30-40 mph and that is supposed to continue until tomorrow morning with an increase in gusts to close to 50 mph!

Unfortunately we just got some spits of rain. The front boat-raced the Hill Country convection this morning so that took any "oompf" out of the rains.

We maybe in for a bumpy ride over here in Wxmanville, Porta

[txtwister78]

Today's "little" front is nothing to sneeze at ... temperatures in Travis County dropped some 20 degrees in about an hour. NW winds now already gusting between 30-40 mph and that is supposed to continue until tomorrow morning with an increase in gusts to close to 50 mph!

Unfortunately we just got some spits of rain. The front boat-raced the Hill Country convection this morning so that took any "oompf" out of the rains.

Saw that as well. Undercut those storms just west of Austin.

[orangeblood]

This is not good

https://twitter.com/RealBlueony/status/1744424744986837492

National Championship is in Houston tonight.

Last years Championship out in LA also a downpour, crazy!!

[Tireman4]

He will need it! Anything under 100F is too cold for him.

100F?? You're giving me the chills.

Do you, like, live in an oven or something?

Oh my, you are a newbie. Wxman 57 loves temperatures above 95, preferably 100. The summer of 2011 was his zenith, I tell you.

[Portastorm]

Today's "little" front is nothing to sneeze at ... temperatures in Travis County dropped some 20 degrees in about an hour. NW winds now already gusting between 30-40 mph and that is supposed to continue until tomorrow morning with an increase in gusts to close to 50 mph!

Unfortunately we just got some spits of rain. The front boat-raced the Hill Country convection this morning so that took any "oompf" out of the rains.

We maybe in for a bumpy ride over here in Wxmanville, Porta

Indeed! Y'all stay safe down there ... the set-up for severe wx/'naders looks potent for SE Texas.

[bubba hotep]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

Yeah, this 5-day at the end of the GEFS doesn't scream warmup

[Itryatgolf]

Will be interesting to see how the 0z euro and 12z tomorrow handle and resolves the many moving parts. I know the king euro isn't as good as it used to be and more models will hopefully jump on board with a board wide winter storm so we will have something to track!!

[Gotwood]

The PNA is currently pretty neutral. That’s a good thing for us right?

[Brent]

I'm down to 1 degree on TWC now next weekend

Also I'm watching tonight for a surprise little snow here. Models have trended back towards a snow band and were running colder than forecast. Maybe if we overperform it'll be a good sign for the weekend

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado watch up now including Houston. I hope everyone is paying attention since the championship game is tonight

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

Yeah, this 5-day at the end of the GEFS doesn't scream warmup

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010812/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

[Edwards Limestone]

1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!

Wow, way more than expected, congrats! Most models had your area seeing up to 0.75 inch at most.

Yes sir! The last couple of systems have definitely overperformed just west of New Braunfels- a very welcome sight.

[jasons2k]

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
207 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 PM CST.

* At 206 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles southwest of Coldspring, or 12 miles northwest of Cleveland, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near... Coldspring around 210 PM CST. Shepherd, Lake Livingston State Park, and West Livingston around 215 PM CST. Livingston and Goodrich around 220 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Evergreen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 223DEG 49KT 3047 9522

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Cady

[Stratton23]

Moderate risk of hazardous temperatures now encompasses most of texas on the newly update cpc hazard map