Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

lol 12z CFS

It has been predicting cold all winter. Toss it.

I think it's time to look to El Nino.

Will say...1957, 1997, 2009, 2015, and even 2023 brought unusually late freezes (even snow into April!). The end of winter and start of spring these going into a Nino type years can be wild late. Probably because the source region was already very cold due to the Nina winter, and the Nino pattern with shorter wavelengths unleashes it in the final hemispheric warming event of the arctic for the Spring.

[HockeyTx82]

lol 12z CFS

It has been predicting cold all winter. Toss it.

I think it's time to look to El Nino.

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=t_fGjrZfDt4

[rwfromkansas]

lol 12z CFS

It has been predicting cold all winter. Toss it.

I think it's time to look to El Nino.

https://youtu.be/t_fGjrZfDt4?si=_o1-sr4waC7RQ4hw

Classic.

I am very optimistic that we WILL get a real pattern change, just may take a bit for the MJO to help it along.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of MJO, as I watch the clouds darken outside with this band of rain/storms moving into DFW, convection has begun firing between the MC (Indonesia) to the far West Pacific along the equator. This is the emerging MJO (WWB enhanced) wave as it kicks off into P6 and will shift to P7 around the 20th of this month. It is a coherent MJO wave and is the first building block for change, both long range and for the year.





Once we see sinking motion over the MC (Indonesia) indicated by oranges and reds then we know a big shift has occurred. It is this pesky region that has plagued us for the better of ~5 years where the waters there have been so warm causing persistent rainfall and convection, it's greatly effected our 500mb, as well as wet/dry regimes.

What an El Nino onset will do is to then extenuate and keep the forcing further east (that is the plan) and lock the favorable position as we move along 2026.

[Brent]

Good grief someone was chasing in Kansas(nice snow btw) with a dirty windshield wipers that don't work and nearly ran off the road on the live stream.

Please do not be that person I mean come on

Seeing legit snow that far west definitely has me wondering if the models are too far east though. Like Wichita is basically too far east for today

[Stratton23]

18z GFS taking a big step in the right direction, west coast ridging nudges a bit more off shore allowing the shortwave to dig more SW, looks more like the CMC at the 500 mb level

Snowing from houston to brownsville lol

[Harp.1]

So close!!!

[Brent]

Yeah I'm not giving up on next weekend at all... How many times have we seen a last minute northwest shift and this is still over a week away. Plenty of time

Heck it happened here a year ago today! This was our big snowstorm last year. It was going to be southeast of us til it wasnt. There was no winter storm warning until it was already snowing

We're talking about inside 24 hours out! The models were all wrong

[txtwister78]

18z GFS taking a big step in the right direction, west coast ridging nudges a bit more off shore allowing the shortwave to dig more SW, looks more like the CMC at the 500 mb level

Snowing from houston to brownsville lol

Despite these one off op runs, the only problem is the ensemble data doesn't really align with it. Again very similar to the early December pattern that preceded the warm torch stretch. Quick brush of minimal cold for a day followed by a rush of pacific air flooding in behind it courtesy of overwhelming western ridging and thus pushes core of the cold/trough east. Just not getting these teleconnections to line up the way you need them to that would bring direct/sustained cold into Texas.

Just not in the cards right now. The status quo weather pattern I think continues. Wish I had better news for you and folks who want some actual winter weather but unfortunately in these la nina patterns that's typically the predominant pattern for Texas. Perhaps that changes late month into early February and we get our one true shot then but the clock is ticking for us in the south now.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 i mean its still 9-10 days out, so both the ensembles and models can still change, we will see, but im just trying to be fun here with a crazy prediction lol, if im wrong, ill buy you a candy bar hahahaha

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 i mean its still 9-10 days out, so both the ensembles and models can still change, we will see, frozen precipitation or not, im just looking for anything interesting to happen, i did say i was going all in on the 19-20th just for fun, i guess we will see if that comes back to bite me in the butt or not lol

Brother I get it. You've been nothing but persistent throughout the winter such as that's been temp wise and I can definitely relate because of course regardless of our preferences it's much more exciting to talk about "something".

Hell I'd settle for rain or thunderstorms in 80 degree temps as opposed to what we've had but in true la nina fashion, it's been bone dry so we've had absolutely nothing to talk about.

For me it's not just the timeframe (8-9 days out) and on an ensemble that's not exactly long range territory but more the overall signals that sort of tell where this is headed without looking at every model run. That's my point but we shall see.

[DukeMu]

18z GFS taking a big step in the right direction, west coast ridging nudges a bit more off shore allowing the shortwave to dig more SW, looks more like the CMC at the 500 mb level

Snowing from houston to brownsville lol

Canadian has snow in CLL. Bring it!

[Cpv17]

18z GFS taking a big step in the right direction, west coast ridging nudges a bit more off shore allowing the shortwave to dig more SW, looks more like the CMC at the 500 mb level

Snowing from houston to brownsville lol

Canadian has snow in CLL. Bring it!

I wouldn’t get your hopes up. The CMC is way too cold biased.

[rwfromkansas]

On the plus side, the Kansas snow overperformed with many areas well over forecast, many close to 8-10 inches.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 i mean its still 9-10 days out, so both the ensembles and models can still change, we will see, but im just trying to be fun here with a crazy prediction lol, if im wrong, ill buy you a candy bar hahahaha

Lol. Nah no need to edit/modify your take at all Statton. More power to you bud. Definitely not a contest at all man about "right or wrong". My view however though is if you post it I do think we should be able to discuss it hopefully in greater detail because maybe you're seeing something I'm not and I welcome anyone to do that with me as well. I actually think that makes the forum more fun and informative that way for all. Just my .02 buddy.

[Cpv17]

Could Oregon’s QB hurt his draft stock anymore than what he’s done tonight? Goodness

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 yeah honestly im just making a prediction, shortwaves in general are really difficult to forecast, yet alone when it comes to winter weather, I just find it funny how i threw out my prediction comment earlier and literally right after that, the next GFS run had snow in se texas and south texas, probably wont happen, but hey you never know with making a guess sometimes, the odds are never completely 0% lol

[Brent]

On the plus side, the Kansas snow overperformed with many areas well over forecast, many close to 8-10 inches.

The guy who was chasing in Kansas(that nearly wrecked on the stream earlier) couldn't even make it back to Wichita tonight it's so bad

Come on be a good sign for us

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z GFS sure did come to life. Trough needs to hang out to the west just a little bit more than what it's showing. Long range looks good too. Last Euro and GFS runs looked promising for change.
Fresh 6" of snow here in denver. Main snow came from the low when it passed through C NM. It pulls down colder air from north of CO, the north/NE wind slams into the denver area and the mountains... Bam, snow. So interesting how we get snow events here. I've learned alot. Currently 21 degrees. Havent had many cold nights here. A couple of single digit nights back with the snow in early Dec, but i wasnt there to enjoy it, so it doesnt count.

[Stratton23]

ICON 00z doesn’t go out as far as the other globals, but at day 7 it has has our shortwave in a similar position as the GFS/ CMC, maybe a little more west than both