Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[baygirl_1]

Don't give up Sabanic!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121900-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
929 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

.NOW...THROUGH 11 AM CST...CURRENTLY THE RAIN SNOW LINE APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY TO CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY AND JUST
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW LINE HAS BEEN ORIENTED WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...IT IS
CHANGING ORIENTATION ALONG A DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE
COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR ARE NOT OUT THE QUESTION. THOSE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING HEAVY SNOW
AND IT ACCUMULATES QUICKLY. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI BORDER THROUGH 11 AM.

We're in Central Mobile County and haven't seen the changeover to snow, YET. But, I went out side and there was a fair amount of sleet mixing in. Patience!

[jcool]

Sabanic, I' m beginning to feel the same way : (

[Brent]

Finally light flurries here

[weunice]

Ground was too warm for much to stick but my yard was completely white for about 15 minutes. It snowed for about 2.5 hours here (just east of Baton Rouge). If it had been colder I suspect 2 inches may have accumulated.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we finally got our snow. Came down pretty good for about 20-30 minutes, then has been light ever sense. Got maybe half an inch. Actually just looked outside and its over. Snowed for about an hour and a half total. Areas north did much better with around 2 inches. Further nw towards Shreveport they got 7 inches. One could only imagine what things would of looked like if we would have received snow all night into this morning as was forecast. Oh well at least we got something.

[MGC]

Only rain here in Pass Christian.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

I'm starting to doubt we see much if any snow where I'm at! Oh well!

[Jag95]

finally snowing in Mobile too.

[Brent]

Heavy snow here... this is getting crazy quickly

[IvanSurvivor]

finally snowing in Mobile too.

Heavy snow here... this is getting crazy quickly

Where r ya'll?

[Jag95]

finally snowing in Mobile too.

Heavy snow here... this is getting crazy quickly

Where r ya'll?

I'm at work downtown on Water Street. Starting to come down pretty good now.

[Brent]

finally snowing in Mobile too.

Heavy snow here... this is getting crazy quickly

Where r ya'll?

I'm up in East Central Alabama north of Auburn, just starting here.

[IvanSurvivor]

Snowing on ALDOT traffic cam in Grand Bay...at I-10.

[Lane]

finally snowing in Mobile too.

Heavy snow here... this is getting crazy quickly

Where r ya'll?

I'm up in East Central Alabama north of Auburn, just starting here.

I am about 12 to 15 miles west of you Brent. It is small flakes here but steady, about a 1/4" on the grass so far. Started around 6:30ish.

[Sabanic]

Snowing all over Mobile now, but not here at the office in Theodore yet

[mtm4319]

There's snow where I am, just north of Tillman's Corner. Been falling for about 10-15 minutes now.

[Brent]

Ground and elevated surfaces are whitening here

[smw1981]

Sabanic..it's coming.... How do I post a picture on here?

[SunnyThoughts]

39 40 41 42 43 44 45


000
FXUS64 KMOB 121641
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

...WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS...
...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER INLAND
COUNTIES...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A BELLEVILLE MS...CITRONELLE
AL...BAY MINETTE...TO ANADALUSIA LINE. THERE ARE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS
OF 5-6 INCHES IN EXTREME NORTHERN MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THE
RAIN SNOW LINE HAS GENERALLY CORRESPONDED WITH THE 1305M 1000-850MB
CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE BASED OFF OF LAPS ANALYSIS. THE RUC ANALYSIS
AND FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE. IN FACT...SNOW HAS BEGUN HERE AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL
AIRPORT AS OF 16Z.

THE SFC-850 MB LOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF
MOBILE...AND WINDS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS IS NOW
HELPING THE COLUMN TO COOL RAPIDLY FROM NW TO SE...AND WE SHOULD SEE
A STEADY PROGRESSION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA THAT IS STILL SEEING RAIN. THE BACKEDGE OF THE SNOW HAS JUST
CLEARED EAST OF BATON ROUGE...SO WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY
ALONG AND OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...WITH ANOTHER
2-4 POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST TO ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVIER BANDS
MAY SET UP IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE 850 MB LOW. 1 TO 2 INCHES
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING
METRO MOBILE. NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY MS REPORTED 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HEAVY BAND THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS...SNOW IS STILL LIKELY (BE PATIENT
SNOW LOVERS!)...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ALREADY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...BUT
WILL TWEAK THE WX GRIDS AND SNOWFALL TOTALS (ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES). STAY SAFE EVERYBODY! 34/JFB

[smw1981]

Maybe that worked? This is at Cottage Hill and University in Mobile, like 5 minutes ago...