Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#1701 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:12 am

12Z NAM suggests some back side flurries are far S as ABI. That guidance also suggests colder air diving S into Central and SE TX through 30 hrs.

#1702 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:15 am

srainhoutx wrote:Good morning everyone and Merry Christmas. Portastorm, I don't know if you follow the NOGAPS or UKMET but you might want to take a peek at those as well. The Southern track of the Upper Low as well as some subtle changes in the secondary surface low track will like need to be watched carefully as the day unfolds. Also, we need to be mindful that a severe weather event may likely unfold and I would not want tht point to get lost in all the talk of wintry precip. Stay Tuned!

srainhoutx, friends don't let friends us the NOGAPS or UKMET! :lol:

#1703 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:18 am

Portastorm wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Good morning everyone and Merry Christmas. Portastorm, I don't know if you follow the NOGAPS or UKMET but you might want to take a peek at those as well. The Southern track of the Upper Low as well as some subtle changes in the secondary surface low track will like need to be watched carefully as the day unfolds. Also, we need to be mindful that a severe weather event may likely unfold and I would not want tht point to get lost in all the talk of wintry precip. Stay Tuned!

srainhoutx, friends don't let friends us the NOGAPS or UKMET!

All the tools in the tool box my friend. At least I haven't mentioned the JMI...

msstateguy83 · #1704 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:19 am

Disclaimer added by staff:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NWS products.

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG PLEASE FOR THE VERY LATEST ON THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL TV,RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

A WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN, NORTHWESTERN TX.. LATEST MODEL GUIDENCE GOES WITH MY PREV THINKING TAKING THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THEN EARLYER FORECAST, THESE AMOUNTS WOULD POSSIBLY HAVE TO BE REVISED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IF TRENDS KEEP UP.

AS OF RIGHTNOW THE MOST SERRIOUS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS A LINE FROM I-44 FROM SW OKLAHOMA CITY TO LAWTON TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS,TX. IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE MOST HEAVY SNOW I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE DRIFTS TO UP TO 2.5 TO 3 FEET.

THIS SITUATION IS VERY RAPIDLY UNFOLDING, I URGE ANYONE IN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM THAT COULD CRIPPLE TRAVEL AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS EVE

#1705 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:28 am

Dude ... while I admire your bold forecast, I have to ask what you are basing this on? Your snowfall totals are very different than what the Amarillo NWSFO is predicting and they are a savvy winter weather bunch.

Srainhoutx, the Japanese model?!?!?

I guess that's as bad as me pinning my snow hopes back earlier this month on the RUC! :lol:

msstateguy83 · #1706 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:28 am

thats my opinion, iam sticking with it, okc media is going hard on this as well i noticed koco has up to 6 inches even in far south ok.. oun is sayin 2-4 in the heavyest areas it looks we will see how this pans out, i know its a tuff road forecast wise though nailing this one down, alot of pressure on the forecasters as well, this being a time when you have alot of people set to travel.

msstateguy83 · #1707 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:31 am

#1708 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:33 am

How do you explain your little pocket of 6-10 inches over Wichita Falls-Lawton?

Wishful thinking?!

msstateguy83 · #1709 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:35 am

iam taking into acct colder temps early, possible 500 mb further s then prev forecast,
i think profiles are fav for heavy snow, it might not last long but there will be peroids
of VERY heavy snow i would say over a 3-4 hr peroid that could put lots of snow on
the ground, it could be isolated this is a very tuff forecast to nail down. i put this
forecast out the other day as you should all be well aware as i posted it in here
and the southern plains topic, now look @ the okc media?? so it seems my forecast
is not that crazy, nws is the only one really not in line. kfor has lower amounts to
the south yes but all agree heavy snow band across the okc metro basically i-44
from lawton to sw okc.

msstateguy83 · #1710 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:37 am

lets just get past this evening, in the morning and we will see who is right, wrong on this.. yes it MIGHT be a bit
further south with the heavy amts BUT you get me one meteorologist, anyone in the field of weather rightnow
who knows exactly what this system is gonna do, doubt you can because there is NOT one, even ppl i know in the business who have been in it 20-30+ yrs have a hard time nailing down this type of forecast, sounds like nws also is... so lets all just watch the trends today and we will see how this pans out

#1711 Postby **srainhoutx** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:46 am

NAM Loops the low NW into W IA and SD with snow in MT...

msstateguy83 · #1712 Postby **msstateguy83** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:46 am

#1713 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:47 am

msstateguy83 wrote:lets just get past this evening, in the morning and we will see who is right, wrong on this.. yes it MIGHT be a bit
further south with the heavy amts BUT you get me one meteorologist, anyone in the field of weather rightnow
who knows exactly what this system is gonna do, doubt you can because there is NOT one, even ppl i know in the business who have been in it 20-30+ yrs have a hard time nailing down this type of forecast, sounds like nws also is... so lets all just watch the trends today and we will see how this pans out

Easy fella ... I'm just asking questions. 8-)

Maybe a little ribbing, sure.

But like I said ... I admire your boldness if nothing else. I also agree with you that this storm system still has a lot "in play" with respect to what might happen. Good luck on your forecast.

#1714 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:56 am

From the staff's standpoint, such an explicit forecast that varies so widely from professional sources should carry our disclaimer:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NWS products.

msstateguy83 wrote:THIS FORECAST IS NOT ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG PLEASE FOR THE VERY LATEST ON THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL TV,RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...

A WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN, NORTHWESTERN TX.. LATEST MODEL GUIDENCE GOES WITH MY PREV THINKING TAKING THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THEN EARLYER FORECAST, THESE AMOUNTS WOULD POSSIBLY HAVE TO BE REVISED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IF TRENDS KEEP UP.

AS OF RIGHTNOW THE MOST SERRIOUS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS A LINE FROM I-44 FROM SW OKLAHOMA CITY TO LAWTON TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS,TX. IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE MOST HEAVY SNOW I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE DRIFTS TO UP TO 2.5 TO 3 FEET.

THIS SITUATION IS VERY RAPIDLY UNFOLDING, I URGE ANYONE IN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM THAT COULD CRIPPLE TRAVEL AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS EVE

#1715 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:02 am

I would also add please do not use all caps to make your forecasts look like something out of the NWS. Even I was confused for a second until I saw the typos. Thank you.

#1716 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:16 am

So what happened to all the -40F weather up in Edmonton last week? Is it still coming down just not as cold?

serenata09 · #1717 Postby **serenata09** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:52 am

Amarillo reporting freezing fog. :cold:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 01.819&e=0

#1718 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:53 am

The 12z GFS is running ... looks like the DFW area, based on this run, might see some light snow on Christmas Eve and that areas like Wichita Falls and Vernon could see several inches of snow from wraparound moisture.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

Edit update: This run shows the upper level energy moving from Lubbock to DFW and then exiting the start with a sharp NE turn into SE Oklahoma.

#1719 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:55 am

Portastorm wrote:The 12z GFS is running ... looks like the DFW area, based on this run, might see some light snow on Christmas Eve and that areas like Wichita Falls and Vernon could see several inches of snow from wraparound moisture.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

Since last night's 0z runs everything has gradually been shifting south and east.

serenata09 · #1720 Postby **serenata09** » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:00 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING IN THE WEST. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...OR WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LATEST NAM
RUN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODELS AND
MAKE NEEDED CHANGES IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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