Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Yukon Cornelius]

This has been the strangest winter I've ever seen it's not even snowing where it should be. I don't know what is to come in February but I'll believe it when I see it as far as a better winter pattern

I agree. I can deal with no snow since that is the norm but outside of fall it hasn’t even been really that cold this year. Just another hyped up non performing winter.

Honestly it's not even about Texas there are many many places in the country way below normal on snow and cold going back to what gpsnowman said

In some ways I can't believe met winter is over half over now... It just hasn't felt like a normal winter to me and now March is closer than December 1

100%. It seems like the majority of the US is still searching for winter. I have a friend that lives N of Boston and he said that this year doesn’t even have a winter. 70s in New England shouldn’t even be a thing.

[TheProfessor]

This winter certainly reminds me of the 2011-2012 winter(including me being sick all the time.). I have some friends speculating that spring 2012 could be an analog this year. Though ENSO doesn't quite line up, they're thinking that the -PNA patter could persist into the spring, which would be big trouble if true. I'm sure most North Texans who were living there at the time remember that spring very well. The CPC's spring forecasts are also interesting. They seem to be favoring a Souteast Ridge and a Soutwest ridge with a Central U.S trough in between. It would appear that they are favoring more Dixie Alley outbreaks this year instead of Tornado Alley outbreaks(though note even if they're 100% right that wouldn't be a permanent pattern and there would surely be outbreaks in the plains). It's definitely something interesting to watch. If CPC is right, however, I'm very concerned about flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

[TheProfessor]

I've been going back through the 2009-2010 thread again and I have to say. I think there's a good chance a lot of us don't see anything like that again in our life times. The amount of storms that happened very good dynamics set up over the Metroplex that year was insane. If there were any slight differences in those storms the season takes a drastically different turn. That's not to say there won't be any winters where you see 10-20 inches of snow. I just think when that does happen it will mostly be from 1 to 2 storms that drop a ton of snow. And even though you can equate most of that snow in the 2009-2010 to one storm, there were multiple storms that year where things had to line up perfectly for DFW to see measurable snow and for there to have been at least 4 different storms to do it is just crazy.

[orangeblood]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

[northjaxpro]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

Unfortunately, this is not good. It is the worst case scenario for the rest of winter for sure. Everything that can go wrong seemingly has for winter-time lovers this season, except for those out over the Western U.S. It has been unbelievable the lack of winter east of the Mississippi River basin.

[harp]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

[b]


Unfortunately, this is not good. It is the worst case scenario for the rest of winter for sure. Everything that can go wrong seemingly has for winter-time lovers this season, except for those out over the Western U.S. It has been unbelievable the lack of winter east of the Mississippi River basin.

I almost wish I had not read this.....

[wxman57]

These in-between winters are worthless. Too cold for me, too warm for most of you.

[dhweather]

I think this years severe weather season could be quite volatile unfortunately. Late cold fronts and an active SJS with that warm moist air may bring an active tornado season for the U.S

Maybe so, but last years severe weather season was as big of a dud as the preceding winter was. If I remember correctly, Gary England had tweeted in late April about that being the latest OUN had gone without issuing one tornado warning? We did get some activity in late May.

[WinterMax]

Same here, these 45 to 50 degree days are too cold for me, can't seem to get rid of the chill like I could when I was much younger. Wouldn't mind some snow, but if not, give 70-75 degree weather

[bubba hotep]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

On the bright side, that should keep Texas wet.

[Haris]

It’ll never snow here like it used to in the 1900s apparently so let’s just move on to severe weather season.

[orangeblood]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

On the bright side, that should keep Texas wet.

https://i.ibb.co/ydfZwTV/wet.png

no doubt...going to be very difficult to get it cold enough at the surface with Canada so warm/Arctic Air cut off from the main jet. However, 500 mb heights look fairly low over the next 2-3 weeks across the southern US, if we can get a system deep enough, wrap around fun could happen akin to last week.

[bubba hotep]

As has been discussed earlier, the MJO dynamic might be the death knell of the 2019-20 Winter...the Phase 5-6 Pop couldn't have happened at a worse time, it is currently scouring out any semblance of Arctic Air in North America. And to make matters worse, all forecast models are showing the MJO stuck in the same warm 4-5-6 phases. We need a good 1-2-3 pop this time of year to get this back on the cold track, not looking good ladies and gentlemen!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

On the bright side, that should keep Texas wet.

https://i.ibb.co/ydfZwTV/wet.png

no doubt...going to be very difficult to get it cold enough at the surface with Canada so warm/Arctic Air cut off from the main jet. However, 500 mb heights look fairly low over the next 2-3 weeks across the southern US, if we can get a system deep enough, wrap around fun could happen akin to last week.

D10 Euro is hearing what you are saying



Also, nice rains for a lot of Texas

[srainhoutx]

These in-between winters are worthless. Too cold for me, too warm for most of you.

It was 18 here in the Smokey Mountains this morning with snow squalls and the ground/pavement covered. Light snow showers have continued all day and I struggled to reach a high of 23 this afternoon. Looks like another snowy evening up here at 3500 ft.

[869MB]

On the bright side, that should keep Texas wet.

https://i.ibb.co/ydfZwTV/wet.png

no doubt...going to be very difficult to get it cold enough at the surface with Canada so warm/Arctic Air cut off from the main jet. However, 500 mb heights look fairly low over the next 2-3 weeks across the southern US, if we can get a system deep enough, wrap around fun could happen akin to last week.

D10 Euro is hearing what you are saying

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020012012/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

Also, nice rains for a lot of Texas

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_precip_inch/1579521600/1580385600-5U3K4iWDlPo.png

If this wetter weather pattern can continue over most of the state of Texas through early March, then maybe the dryline won't have a tendency to punch as far east this spring - of course with other factors coming into play as well.

[Ralph's Weather]

I've been traveling all weekend and today, looked at FB just now and see a local met in Tyler talking about snow mixing in Wed morning. Dang it now gotta look into that before sleep.

[Texas Snow]

I've been traveling all weekend and today, looked at FB just now and see a local met in Tyler talking about snow mixing in Wed morning. Dang it now gotta look into that before sleep.

Yep Far E & NE Texas have a punchers chance.

[Ralph's Weather]

I've been traveling all weekend and today, looked at FB just now and see a local met in Tyler talking about snow mixing in Wed morning. Dang it now gotta look into that before sleep.

Yep Far E & NE Texas have a punchers chance.

I see that. Interesting. Likely would fall before daybreak and not stick sadly. I need sleep not a 3am alarm but can't miss snow Haha.

[Ralph's Weather]

Borderline but could see coating of snow tomorrow early in E TX.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro with an additional 4.5" of rain at DFW, that would put DFW just short of the January rainfall record.