Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TrekkerCC]

So what happened to all the -40F weather up in Edmonton last week? Is it still coming down just not as cold?

It is not quite as cold in Western Canada as it was last week. However, the cold front is slowly advancing eastward. Still looks to be on track to be through our area tonight. Here is a link to the current surface temperatures and winds.

http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/surface/tg/us

[TrekkerCC]

The 12z GFS is running ... looks like the DFW area, based on this run, might see some light snow on Christmas Eve and that areas like Wichita Falls and Vernon could see several inches of snow from wraparound moisture.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml

Edit update: This run shows the upper level energy moving from Lubbock to DFW and then exiting the start with a sharp NE turn into SE Oklahoma.

Forecast soundings for the GFS 12z run (30-36hrs) seems to indicate at least for the northern suburbs a changeover to all snow. Forecast soundings for the NAM 12z run (30-36hr) for the area are a bit warmer than the GFS soundings. Looks to be a potent upper-level disturbance coming through. I think a light snow event could be possible for the North Texas area. It does look ever more promising that we will have snow flurries or light snow tomorrow, but I'm still not sold on this event yet.

BTW - you can play around with the forecast soundings yourself here: http://weather.niu.edu/machine/textfcstsound.html

The temperatures will be in C, so remember your freezing mark is 0C. Also, you will need to put in aviation codes for sites: KADS (Addison Airport), KDFW (DFW Airport), KAFW (Ft Worth Alliance Airport), and KDAL (Dallas Love) should allow you to get a sampling of sites around the DFW area. Also, these forecast soundings will show the atmosphere from the surface to very high up in the atmosphere. It samples the atmosphere at different fixed pressure levels. This website provides you details about the attitude of these fixed measures (slices) of the atmosphere: http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/details.html .

[Portastorm]

Great little resource there, TrekkerCC. Thanks a lot!

[Ntxw]

I am amazed, less than 48 hours out and still so many discrepancies

[msstateguy83]

per latest sat imagery i still think a even further south jog of the upper level low is possible, this is gonna literally
come right down to the wire with who gets how much snow and where but the more and more time goes along i
think the chances of snow in the south are going up dramatically.

edit: iam not sold on the event as far as dallas proper BUT with what the latest runs put out and
as i said latest sat trends there might have to be a serious adjustment of the snow totals
later by the respected nws offices if this keeps up.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

per latest sat imagery i still think a even further south jog of the upper level low is possible, this is gonna literally
come right down to the wire with who gets how much snow and where but the more and more time goes along i
think the chances of snow in the south are going up dramatically.

edit: iam not sold on the event as far as dallas proper BUT with what the latest runs put out and
as i said latest sat trends there might have to be a serious adjustment of the snow totals
later by the respected nws offices if this keeps up.

If we get snow here in the DFW metro, I don't think much will stick as it is close to 70 degrees today! What do you think for travel issues?

[msstateguy83]

rightnow i would have to agree with ground temps in the dfw area, it would take a very heavy
snow burst i think for any serious accums in the dfw metroplex proper. now just northwest say bowie
decatur and nw could be in line for some of the heavy snow and could be problems up that way. its a
very rapidly changing wx event. but i would expect travel i-35 north into oklahoma to be almost a non
starter for tomorrow but stay tuned as this could also impact north tx.

[Texas2Florida]

per latest sat imagery i still think a even further south jog of the upper level low is possible, this is gonna literally
come right down to the wire with who gets how much snow and where but the more and more time goes along i
think the chances of snow in the south are going up dramatically.

edit: iam not sold on the event as far as dallas proper BUT with what the latest runs put out and
as i said latest sat trends there might have to be a serious adjustment of the snow totals
later by the respected nws offices if this keeps up.

If we get snow here in the DFW metro, I don't think much will stick as it is close to 70 degrees today! What do you think for travel issues?

If you are traveling by plane, DFW airport will be a nightmare! A little bit of cold and moisture brings the place to a standstill. The ground has been 70 for about 2 days but before that was really cold, so road traffic could go either way I think.

[msstateguy83]

if we have the heavy snow bursts over n.tx there will be nothing road temps can do b/c it will pile up
so quickly ground temps wont matter. i also have to agree with prev post really it could go either way.
but seriously if you take a look @ the latest sat imagery if this low keeps on its s to se-ward track this
could very much put the winter precip chances way up for all of north tx including most all of the metroplex
so just stay tuned in the coming hours as the forecast will likely be changed some.

[msstateguy83]

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=TLX

latest 12z gfs puts almost a foot of snow as far s as lawton in sw ok..
it keeps pushing this further, further south!

[msstateguy83]

per koco nws to issue a winter storm warning now for sw ok including lawton & wichita falls

[CaptinCrunch]

TXZ021>044-240600-
/O.NEW.KLUB.WW.Y.0008.091223T2100Z-091224T1800Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...
SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...
O`DONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
1056 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN ALONG
THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EASTWARD TO
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 FROM PLAINVIEW
TO PADUCAH. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG NORTH WINDS THURSDAY MORNING MAY CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE THE SNOWFALL ENDS
BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

I am not traveling by plane, however, I have family in the Springtown area. it sounds like the furthur west and north you go it could be trouble!

[msstateguy83]

closely eyeing the latest sat images, STILL has a s to s-erly track to it.. =)


http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SWR/WV/&NUMBLOOP=9

[Nederlander]

Could be my eyes playing tricks.. but almost looks due east to me..

EDIT: I could be looking at the wrong thing.. Are we looking at the spin over northern NM? or something else

[srainhoutx]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
145 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

VALID DEC 23/1200 UTC THRU DEC 27/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


FINAL 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF


MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.


...TROF APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON SAT...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD LATE SAT THE NAM IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS IN BRINGING MID LVL ENERGY TO THE PAC NW COAST. THE GFS/NAM
ARE MORE SIMILAR WITH WEAK ENERGY REACHING CA AND VICINITY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
OVERALL SHRTWV DURING THE PAST 12-24 HRS... BUT THE FACT THAT THE
00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC RUNS AND 09Z SREF/06Z-12Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW A SHRTWV ORIENTATION SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
GFS OFFERS A DECENT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE GFS SCENARIO IS
MORE LIKELY. STRENGTH OF THE WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANY ENERGY REACHING THE WEST COAST SHOULD EITHER FLOW FARTHER
SWD THAN THE NAM AS IT UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE OR ELSE BE DEFLECTED
AROUND THE WRN PART OF THE RIDGE. 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL RUNS
HAVE BROUGHT THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY FARTHER SWD THAN THE
DOMINANT CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE BY LATE SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE SLOWER/SWD AS WELL BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE
UKMET/CMC. PREFERRING TO WAIT FOR FURTHER CONFIRMATION ON A SOLN
AS SLOW/CLOSED AS THE UKMET/CMC... WILL RECOMMEND A GFS/ECMWF
COMPROMISE.


...DEEPENING STORM TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...

PREFERENCE: SFC... CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF/12Z GEFS MEAN THRU F30 MID
THU FOLLOWED BY A NAM AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE... ALOFT NAM
AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE THRU THE PERIOD

BY THU THE GFS SHOWS EARLIER DEEPENING AND FARTHER WWD TRACK OF
THE EVOLVING SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE NAM. THE GFS/NAM CONVERGE
DEPTH-WISE BY F48 EARLY FRI WITH THE GFS POSITIONING THE LOW SWD
OF THE NAM. AFTER EARLY FRI THE NAM PULLS THE SFC LOW FARTHER WWD
THAN THE GFS... WITH THE NAM REMAINING WWD OF THE GFS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST. SFC DIFFS CORRESPOND TO THE GFS BECOMING
DEEPER THAN THE NAM WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LVL SYSTEM CROSSING
THE SRN PLAINS ON THU... AND TRACKING THE CORE OF UPSTREAM ALBERTA
CLOSED LOW ENERGY FARTHER SWD/SEWD THAN THE NAM.

REMAINING MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
MEANINGFUL SPREAD IN DETAILS OF SYSTEM EVOLUTION. WHAT CONSENSUS
EXISTS... NOW INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN... INDICATES
THAT THE GFS MAY BE EXCESSIVELY DEEP WITH ITS MID LVL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO MO... RESULTING IN A
DEEPER/WWD GFS SFC LOW THU INTO THU NIGHT. THE UKMET/GEFS MEAN DO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THE SFC LOW TO TRACK WWD OF THE NAM IN THIS
TIME FRAME THOUGH. MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN MAY BRING THE
ALBERTA CLOSED LOW ALOFT TOO FAR SWD INTO THE PLAINS. SLOWER GFS
TREND OVER THE PAST DAY WITH THIS FEATURE OFFERS ADDED SUPPORT FOR
THE NON-GFS CONSENSUS. ON THE OTHER HAND BEST CONSENSUS INDICATES
THAT THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAK AT THE SFC AS OF F24 EARLY
THU... BUT COMPARES BETTER BY LATER IN THE DAY. THEN THE NAM IS
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD ESPECIALLY AROUND LATE FRI.
EXACTLY HOW FAR WWD THE SFC LOW TRACKS WILL DEPEND ON LOW
CONFIDENCE SHRTWV DETAILS TYPICALLY NOT WELL RESOLVED 2-3 DAYS OUT
IN TIME... SO PARTIAL WEIGHTING OF THE NAM COULD BE WARRANTED.
WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING CNTRL/ERN AREAS SOME
NAM RUNS HAD TRACKS ON THE EXTREME WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE
WITH VERIFICATION ON AVERAGE SUGGESTING A SOLN PARTIALLY BUT NOT
COMPLETELY TO THE NAM COULD OFFER THE BEST TRACK DURING THE TIME
THAT THE NAM IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF GUIDANCE. THE GFS LEANS TO THE
ERN SIDE OF THE SOLN SPREAD BY SAT.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SFC LOW DURING THU INTO
EARLY FRI... AND TRENDS WWD OF THE 00Z RUN AROUND LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. THIS ADJUSTMENT STILL LEAVES THE NAM AS THE FARTHEST WWD
SOLN AT THAT TIME BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS NWD OF THE GFS WITH THE
ALBERTA UPPER LOW TRACKING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS. STRENGTH OF
UPSTREAM FLOW LEAVES SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF TREND
THU-THU NIGHT... AND THE UPPER LOW MAY BE A LITTLE DEEP FRI-SAT...
BUT AS A WHOLE MOST 12Z ECMWF ATTRIBUTES ARE SUFFICIENTLY
REASONABLE TO GIVE PARTIAL WEIGHTING.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THRU THE SRN PLAINS THRU F30 MID THU...
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS THAT IS DEEPER THAN THE NAM BUT
WEAKER THAN THE GFS FAVORS A SOLN CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN
GLBL/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER NOTE THAT THE GEFS MEAN IS FARTHER
SWD THAN OPERATIONAL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE GFS WITH THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE CANADIAN GLBL SFC
TRACK IS ON THE SERN EDGE OF GUIDANCE BY LATE THU... BUT THE 12Z
ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE AS WELL. FROM LATE THU ONWARD WILL
RECOMMEND A NAM AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF BLEND WEIGHTED EVENLY AMONG
THOSE THREE SOURCES AS THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF MAJORITY
GUIDANCE CLUSTERING WHILE MAINTAINING OPERATIONAL MODEL DETAILS
THAT GET SMOOTHED OUT SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS NAM
AND 12Z/00Z ECMWF BLEND IS RECOMMENDED ALOFT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


...WAVE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST FRI ONWARD...

PREFERENCE: 12Z/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE

THE NAM BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE NWD PROGRESSION OF
THE WAVE... AS THE NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS WITH THE
UPSTREAM TROF AND SLOWER WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF LEADING HGT
FALLS. MOST OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM EXTREMES. THE 00Z/12Z CANADIAN GLBL RUNS
ARE BOTH ABOUT AS FAST AS THE GFS THRU F72 EARLY SAT BUT THE 12Z
CMC TRENDS SLOWER THEREAFTER AND THE UKMET FALLS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. PREFER AN AVERAGE OF THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS AS
A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN WHICH ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ECMWF HANDLING OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.


...UPPER LOW DEPARTING FROM NEW ENGLAND...

THE GFS/NAM AND OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS SHOW ONLY MINOR TIMING
DIFFS WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

RAUSCH

[msstateguy83]

last few frames to me also seems like that has a more east-ward track now.. but its quite a bit further south then
forecast so this needs to be watched VERY closely thru the evening hrs as any further south to se track would have
a serious impact on the forecast for northern tx.

edit: yeah over nm region thats the upper low, its further south then first forecast and is now forecast to track
on a lubbock to dfw line then off to the ne into sern ok.. any further southern to southeastern move of it would put
all of north tx in the threat zone of the heavy snow.

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you one thing ... if the 12z Euro verifies ... the next seven days are going to be cold and stormy for Texas and the Southern Plains!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009122312!!/

[srainhoutx]

FWD has a special 18Z Upper Air RAOBS coming in...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundi ... BS/FWD.gif

[Ntxw]

Snow, no snow, snow, no snow, almost 24 hours within time frame and I still don't know what to tell my relatives driving to visit.