Texas Winter 2014-2015

[kingwood_tx1999]

Think there waiting for the models

[perk]

I don't hold out much hope that the models are gonna change that much,it's getting real close to crunch time.

[TexasF6]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/ ... p/nam.html

It's coming...

[WeatherNewbie]

Any science and especially this one is improved by experience. If the models do not appear to match what your experience tells you then you have to add your own input. It sure is easier to only answer to the people that use your forecasts in their day to day lives and not some bureaucrat though. If we see the temperature busts that we expect then people will be wanting answers from the pro mets and blaming computer models will not ease the public's questioning of pro mets.

Yeah, the thing about is that most of the mets you see on TV are under a lot of pressure, and not just from the viewers watching at home. When almost every model they have is forecasting warmer temps, it's probably extremely difficult for them to pull the trigger and go against it. Even if they see the potential for colder temps.

But when you add freezing rain into the mix...things start to change. If I were them, I would at least add in more conversation about this threat. An icy surprise around New Year's Eve is not something you want. Better safe than sorry.

Completely agree. This is a situation where warning of the threat and nothing happening is preferable to trusting that the models are exactly right and them having their typical warm bias with Arctic air masses and having a surprise .1" of ice at 2AM NYE night.

The problem forecasters face is if they even mention freezing precip in their forecast, the general public overreacts. And then if it does not verify, the forecaster gets crucified even if they were properly cautionary in the probabilities in their forecast. Us weather enthusiasts love Cavanaugh's discussions, but he could never put out a forecast like that for general consumption. Most would not read it, and those that do would just focus on the mention of freezing precip and hold him to it. It reminds me of one of my favorite movie quotes. "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals..."

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has temperatures 34-32 from Wednesday Evening to New Years Morning with light Rain in the Austin area...

[Ralph's Weather]

The problem forecasters face is if they even mention freezing precip in their forecast, the general public overreacts. And then if it does not verify, the forecaster gets crucified even if they were properly cautionary in the probabilities in their forecast. Us weather enthusiasts love Cavanaugh's discussions, but he could never put out a forecast like that for general consumption. Most would not read it, and those that do would just focus on the mention of freezing precip and hold him to it. It reminds me of one of my favorite movie quotes. "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals..."

Along those lines though, if the forecast shows a low of 32 and some light rain 6PM NYE then by 2AM it is 29 with light freezing rain there will also be a huge backlash. It is a very tough call that will have to be made in less than 36 hours. If things stay as they are I would issue a winter storm watch tonight for a large portion of the state for NYE evening through Friday morning just in case.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Honestly, im not even watching the models for temps at this point, only for precip and what the upper air pattern looks like

[davidiowx]

Honestly, im not even watching the models for temps at this point, only for precip and what the upper air pattern looks like

Are you that confident it will be below freezing in our area? The models are obviously not showing that and I do think it will be colder than what is forecasted. Just curious if you see anything that gives you a good reason to believe it will be below freezing the Houston area outside of the massive HP heading this way.

[Portastorm]

Quick case in point on why I continue to believe the GFS is underestimating temps with the Arctic airmass coming. Right now, Goodland, KS, is sitting 16 degrees. The 0z and even the most recent 12z GFS runs show Goodland to be at 22 degrees at this hour. So, it's 6 degrees off and the real brunt of the Arctic airmass hasn't even reached them yet!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Honestly, im not even watching the models for temps at this point, only for precip and what the upper air pattern looks like

Are you that confident it will be below freezing in our area? The models are obviously not showing that and I do think it will be colder than what is forecasted. Just curious if you see anything that gives you a good reason to believe it will be below freezing the Houston area outside of the massive HP heading this way.

Below freezing? I dont know. I think houston area will be 30-32 west of 59, a bit warmer towards the coast. This is a complete guess on my part though.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Honestly, im not even watching the models for temps at this point, only for precip and what the upper air pattern looks like

Are you that confident it will be below freezing in our area? The models are obviously not showing that and I do think it will be colder than what is forecasted. Just curious if you see anything that gives you a good reason to believe it will be below freezing the Houston area outside of the massive HP heading this way.

Below freezing? I dont know. I think houston area will be 30-32 west of 59, a bit warmer towards the coast. This is a complete guess on my part though.

What about north of 59..say kingwood or porter

[Tammie]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/apparenttemp/nam.html

It's coming...

TEXASF6, how often is that site updated?

[perk]

Quick case in point on why I continue to believe the GFS is underestimating temps with the Arctic airmass coming. Right now, Goodland, KS, is sitting 16 degrees. The 0z and even the most recent 12z GFS runs show Goodland to be at 22 degrees at this hour. So, it's 6 degrees off and the real brunt of the Arctic airmass hasn't even reached them yet!

Portastorm are we possibly gonna witness a monumental bust regarding temps with this artic outbreak coming.

[TexasF6]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/apparenttemp/nam.html

It's coming...

TEXASF6, how often is that site updated?

That's the freshest update! I'll check the site regularly thru the event.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z CMC, unfortunately, looks bad for parts of northern Texas (showing a lot of freezing/frozen precip).

[ronyan]

Denver looks colder than progged, only at 12F right now.

[Longhornmaniac8]

The nest 12 hours are going to be spent watching how much temperatures to our north have busted. That will give us an idea of what we can expect here.

[SouthernMet]

The 12Z CMC, unfortunately, looks bad for parts of northern Texas (showing a lot of freezing/frozen precip).

I was just about to post about that. That backs up what I have been saying, looks like a sleet event Thursday morning..

[Portastorm]

Quick case in point on why I continue to believe the GFS is underestimating temps with the Arctic airmass coming. Right now, Goodland, KS, is sitting 16 degrees. The 0z and even the most recent 12z GFS runs show Goodland to be at 22 degrees at this hour. So, it's 6 degrees off and the real brunt of the Arctic airmass hasn't even reached them yet!

Portastorm are we possibly gonna witness a monumental bust regarding temps with this artic outbreak coming.

I don't know if I'd say it'll be a "monumental bust" ... but I do think the GFS numbers are off (too warm) by at least 5-7 degrees for what we will see on Wednesday and maybe into Thursday. And FWIW, the latest (9z) SREF keeps the frozen precip north and west of Austin but looks to clobber parts of North Texas west of the Metroplex.

The 12z Crazy Canadian (CMC) continues to show two separate periods of precip for Texas and does show a wintry precip impact for the Metroplex and parts of the Hill Country. Areas along and east of I-35 just look like a cold rain.

[ndale]

Portastorm is the SREF using temps as currently progged, could it be off several degrees as well?