Texas Winter 2016-2017

[WeatherGuesser]

35 and blustery in Humble!

I hear they put a '-' in front of that in Nebraska this morning.

[Tireman4]

I leave town for a few days and somebody left the Arctic door open...

More to come young Jedi!

[Ntxw]

9:30 still in the teens. My therm is hovering between 17-18 and wind chill is still single digits

I'm starting to believe MOS low to mid teens tomorrow morning with less wind and clear. They nailed the 18 this morning

[wxman57]

I'm on the road just passing Lake Charles. It's cold here, too. Wife is driving. I'll be re-lighting the atmosphere pilot light when I get home. Got to get rid of this cold air...

[Portastorm]

I'm on the road just passing Lake Charles. It's cold here, too. Wife is driving. I'll be re-lighting the atmosphere pilot light when I get home. Got to get rid of this cold air...

Safe travels, my good man. We miss ya!

[Brent]

I leave town for a few days and somebody left the Arctic door open...

You should go on vacation more often

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has the Christmas system but it looks a bit different. It brings out the cutoff low (that was supposed to be midweek system but backpedaled). Looks like its going to be a wet run with the two jets phasing.

[Cerlin]

Temperatures around my area are lower than forecasted, we were only supposed to hit a low 19, but it's been 16 for a few hours in a row now.

[Brent]

Wet Christmas on the GFS. Snow in the Panhandle and western OK

Snow down to the Red River at 0z Christmas

Much less snow than the 0z. None south of the Red River basically, more than a couple inches is north of OKC even

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Got busy for a bit, lots of posts to catch up on but im done!

35 here at TPB weather center. Ahhhhhhh.

Buddy went hunting in San Saba last night. 81F when he got there around 530 PM, 24 at 11 PM at night. Said he almost died cleaning the Hog they shot lol. 16 now.


Ntx, so why is it SO COLD with whimpy HP? Have to do with the dewpoint being so low or the source of the cold air? Its cold out there but it feels EXTREMELY dry. This is Siberian air right? So why is the density so low yet its so cold?

[Ntxw]

Got busy for a bit, lots of posts to catch up on but im done!

35 here at TPB weather center. Ahhhhhhh.

Buddy went hunting in San Saba last night. 81F when he got there around 530 PM, 24 at 11 PM at night. Said he almost died cleaning the Hog they shot lol. 16 now.


Ntx, so why is it SO COLD with whimpy HP? Have to do with the dewpoint being so low or the source of the cold air? Its cold out there but it feels EXTREMELY dry. This is Siberian air right? So why is the density so low yet its so cold?

Its been frigid in Canada. I think the pattern with the trough digging into the southern rockies is a favorable one for delivering cold air to TX. Source region delivered it seems. Had the HP been stronger up north who knows how colder it would've been.

I am not as well versed with the set up and such weak HP delivering other than pointing how cold it is has been in north.

[TheProfessor]

I leave town for a few days and somebody left the Arctic door open...

Mmm Yeah Sorry about that, I kinda brought some Ohio air back home with me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah maybe because it has been so cold, high snow pack, Winter Solstice etc, just a great combination.

Just read the discussion for HGX, H85 temps are at 14C! That is crazy how shallow this air mass is.

[Ntxw]

12Z GFS reloads anomalous cold in Western Canada and another western trough days leading up the New Year

[srainhoutx]

12z GFS has the Christmas system but it looks a bit different. It brings out the cutoff low (that was supposed to be midweek system but backpedaled). Looks like its going to be a wet run with the two jets phasing.

The disturbance that will bring the Christmas weather is over Siberia and not expected to really organize until it exits the NW Pacific near Kamchatka around Tuesday/Wednesday. I expected a tremendous amount of volatility among the deterministic and ensemble guidance until later next week. There is a strong wave break coming in the upper atmosphere across the Northern Pacific. That said I will not be surprised to see a very potent Winter Storm with both warm and cold sector weather worries during the busy Christmas Holiday period.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yeah maybe because it has been so cold, high snow pack, Winter Solstice etc, just a great combination.

Just read the discussion for HGX, H85 temps are at 14C! That is crazy how shallow this air mass is.

Its been very shallow! Cold, dense air wins.

[jasons2k]

My house bottomed-out at 32.5 at 8:20 this morning. 36 now.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has the Christmas system but it looks a bit different. It brings out the cutoff low (that was supposed to be midweek system but backpedaled). Looks like its going to be a wet run with the two jets phasing.

The disturbance that will bring the Christmas weather is over Siberia and not expected to really organize until it exits the NW Pacific near Kamchatka around Tuesday/Wednesday. I expected a tremendous amount of volatility among the deterministic and ensemble guidance until later next week. There is a strong wave break coming in the upper atmosphere across the Northern Pacific. That said I will not be surprised to see a very potent Winter Storm with both warm and cold sector weather worries during the busy Christmas Holiday period.

I agree, high volatility between runs and between models. ECMWF has been victimized showing vastly different solutions run to run.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS has the Christmas system but it looks a bit different. It brings out the cutoff low (that was supposed to be midweek system but backpedaled). Looks like its going to be a wet run with the two jets phasing.

The disturbance that will bring the Christmas weather is over Siberia and not expected to really organize until it exits the NW Pacific near Kamchatka around Tuesday/Wednesday. I expected a tremendous amount of volatility among the deterministic and ensemble guidance until later next week. There is a strong wave break coming in the upper atmosphere across the Northern Pacific. That said I will not be surprised to see a very potent Winter Storm with both warm and cold sector weather worries during the busy Christmas Holiday period.

Totally agree. For grins this morning I was looking over the individual members of the GFS 0z ensembles. Beyond 120 hours it's comical how little agreement there was. As for me and my house, I'm following wxman57's advice of not trusting any model run right now beyond 3 days until further notice.

[Brent]

December 29th