Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

That is with southerly flow and 850mb temps above +3C.

Could be upper 50's by next Tuesday.

Please... tell me you guys see the light on this one!! When the big cold wave hits in March I will be all over it.

Next week will be all about spring. Trust me.

[TT-SEA]

The following week will be warm as well.

Two weeks from now...

[R-Dub]

The downward trend with the temps have slowed up just as I have thought it would, will drop a little more through out the night, then drop several degrees at daybreak barring any atmospheric conditions mentioned on a previous post. Like Snowwiz says, I would not be suprised to see mid 20's. Though I will say 27 will be my low, and it will happen around 8:05AM tomarrow morning!!

2/7/05 LK Goodwin WA
9:11:04 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 32.5
Humidity (%) 97.1
Wind (mph) NE 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.23
Dew Point: 32.1 ºF

High today 42.9 degrees
Low so far today 32.5 degrees

[TT-SEA]

I realize that everyone is watching "24" right now.

But when its over... let all agree to end the cold weather talk for next week. Its just silly now. The arctic air will be in the Midwest and the East Coast. The GFS has trended so strongly the way I thought that now I will wager anyone who thinks there will arctic air next week. The trend has removed every ounce of doubt.

Lets not argue for a week... next Tuesday will be in the upper 50's no matter how much we debate it.

I promise that when the big change comes in March... I will be complete on board. I know its coming as well.

But definitely not in the next two weeks!!!

[R-Dub]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 910 PM PST MON FEB 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. &&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS GOING RATHER LIGHT AT THE SURFACE THIE EVENING...AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR MASS OVERHEAD...TEMPS ARE A-DROPPIN. READINGS THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH SEVERAL AREAS AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALREADY. FORECAST LOWS ARE AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS AND THAT SHOULD WORK OUT OK AS WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A BIT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO DEPRESS THE DEWPOINTS. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS SUN AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUE. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. CERNIGLIA &&

[R-Dub]

Sure I will give up on the cold talk..................For tonight anyway, I'm going to bed

I will wait to say one way or the other when I look at the model data, and PNA forecast before work in the morning.
I'll give my answer after that!!

Have a great night everyone!!

[W13]

W13 - the dewpoints are in the low 30's. The temperature cannot drop below the dewpoint. So... the air will have to dry out for that to happen. Its possible but you will not continue dropping 3-4 degrees an hour.

That would put you at 0 degrees at 4 a.m. and -12 by dawn!!

WeatherBug says we are at 32 F, but the thermometer in my truck says 29 F. Usually, my truck is the one who is right.

[W13]

The following week will be warm as well.

Two weeks from now...

I'm confused. When the GFS and other models showed Arctic Air for this Sunday and early next week, you said the models are not any good out poast Day 2. But yet when the models show warm, you hop right on board and say that it will be warm ... 2 weeks from now. I really don't get it.

[W13]

Wow, that sure was a fun night of basketball! We beat the best team in the league tonight, al though it was a low scoring game. The final score was 25-21, believe. Our defense was incredible, we held the opponent to only 2 points in the first quarter! Awesome game!

[TT-SEA]

W13- you really misunderstand... let me help you.

I have been tracking the GFS with the high pressure and warm weather coming Thursday and Friday for almost 10 days now. It has been perfect. I have been tracking the system for Saturday and it has been pretty consistent.

I do not disregard the GFS. Its 850mb temps are worthless when considering arctic air here... but I do not discount its upper air patterns.

Unless I have reason to do so.

Based on everything else... I know the 12Z run was wrong for early next week. Then the model trends perfectly the way I thought in the last two runs. Really quite dramatic.

I have a pretty good idea about whats coming and I knew the GFS was wrong about arctic air next week. Now it has come around.

I know wild weather is coming in March. If the GFS shows a tame pattern I will be highly skeptical.

[andrewr]

What makes you think that we will get wild weather in March?

[TT-SEA]

Here it is (I hope)...

This week (2/8-2/11)... tame and getting warmer. We all know that now... but I said the same thing last week and everyone laughed at me.

Weak system this weekend and cool but not cold (snow level 2,500 feet)

Next week (2/14-2/19)... even more tame. Slightly cool (upper 40's) and then much warmer (low 60's).

Following week (2/20-2/27)... still tame. Normal to much above normal temperatures.

Thats where my confidence ends. But I think the first week of March will start out nice and become very stormy. Rainy at first... maybe quite a bit of rain but then colder. I have very high confidence that Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass will end up with 100 inches of snow in March.

[TT-SEA]

Talk of arctic air and predictions of the "coldest weather all winter"... the "same temperatures as Montana"... "10-15" degrees below normal" for next week is just wrong.

[AnthonyC]

TT-SEA,

We get it already...NO snow or cold next week. Either you have too much time on your hands or you like repeating the same thing over and over. I think we ALL get what you're saying.

In any event, 24 was ALOT better tonight...kept me at the edge of my seat the entire hour. Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

After the GFS comes in with high pressure and warm weather next week... now we have the ECMWF.

So much for your arctic air on the 12Z run.

Look at next Monday now...

[TT-SEA]

Way too much time on my hands!!

Anyways... if I can end this tonight then we can save the debate for much later.

[~Brennan~]

I said 5-8 degrees below normal for seattle.... MAYBE READ IT AGAIN.... I said 10-15 degrees below normal for other places... Like bellingham and my area...

[TT-SEA]

I just hope you now see what I am talking about.

[TT-SEA]

Just to keep me honest... actuals in red.

TT's forecast (Sea-Tac):

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-42 Hi-51 Lo-39 Partly Cloudy
Friday - Rain developing Hi-47 Lo-40 Hi-50 Lo-41 Showers/Sun Breaks
Saturday - Showers Hi-44 Lo-37 Hi-44 Lo-35 Cloudy
Sunday - Showers Hi-42 Lo-35 Hi-43 Lo-37 Showers
Monday - Showers / Sun Breaks Hi-42 Lo-30 Hi-46 Lo-35 Partly Cloudy
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-48 Lo-32
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-50 Low-36
Thursday - Partly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-38
Friday - Mostly Sunny Hi-59 Lo-40



My forecast was too cold (yes me... too cold) on 3 of 5 days. I was too warm on one day and right on for one day.

So I am even under-forecasting the warmth. The rest of the week looks to be right on target.

Not bad. Better than the NWS.

[andycottle]

Good late evening folks...well, almost morning as it`s near 12am now. So...good morning! .

Looking at tonights 00z GFS....we stay pretty dry tomorrow through at least the 12th and then some shower activity for late in the upcoming weekend comes back into the picture. 850MB temps are still a tad cool and range from 0 to -3C, but warming to around +3C by the this weekend with heights near or 1500M. 500MB voricity heights through the work week are rather high and near or very close to 558DM range. Height drop slightly over the weekend. ECMWF and MM5 Model also showing some high heights. So for rest this week, I`ll going highs in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s and lowes in the 30`s with partly to mostly sunny skies. -- Andy