Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[ntxweatherwatcher]

FWD has a special 18Z Upper Air RAOBS coming in...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundi ... BS/FWD.gif

I am still new at reading these things, and I can't read this. Can anyone tells me what it means? Thanks!

[cheezyWXguy]

last few frames to me also seems like that has a more east-ward track now.. but its quite a bit further south then
forecast so this needs to be watched VERY closely thru the evening hrs as any further south to se track would have
a serious impact on the forecast for northern tx.

edit: yeah over nm region thats the upper low, its further south then first forecast and is now forecast to track
on a lubbock to dfw line then off to the ne into sern ok.. any further southern to southeastern move of it would put
all of north tx in the threat zone of the heavy snow.

well the spin is elongated sw to ne, back into arizona. If you look at the system as a whole, it appears to be moving se. however, yes the ne fringe of the circulation in NM right now is moving east.

[TexasStorm]

FWD has a special 18Z Upper Air RAOBS coming in...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundi ... BS/FWD.gif

The latest soundings actually do not support severe as much as the morning soundings did I was hoping for some good storms through here but the severe potential seems to be slowly going out the door.

[TrekkerCC]

I am still new at reading these things, and I can't read this. Can anyone tells me what it means? Thanks!

Basically, they are just assessing the surrounding upper-level environment for SVR weather potential. As TexasStorm noted above, it looks only marginal for SVR weather today. This sounding does not have anything to do with what could potentially happen tomorrow.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

I am still new at reading these things, and I can't read this. Can anyone tells me what it means? Thanks!

Basically, they are just assessing the surrounding upper-level environment for SVR weather potential. As TexasStorm noted above, it looks only marginal for SVR weather today. This sounding does not have anything to do with what could potentially happen tomorrow.

Thank you!

[Texas Snowman]

As for what could happen tomorrow, FW NWS graphic shows low tracking north of Commanche around 2 a.m., Fort Worth around 8 a.m., and east of McAlister around 2 p.m.

North of that low, graphic shows rain/snow potential.

I'm beginning to believe that the Red River counties from Sherman/Denison westward may be under the gun for some accumulating snow tomorrow if the low does indeed track southward toward the Metroplex.

[msstateguy83]

if it takes a track down near comanche then yeah dfw will be under the gun and i would disagree with the forecast
disc they had out earlyer about 'little to no accumulations' but we will see... if it tracks that far south dfw proper
could be looking at a couple inches and just nw up along 287 from decatur, bowie and up towards the falls it could
be down right ugly.

[gofrogs]

I guess well see i still think the biggest potetniall is this weekend into next week, something is brewing believe me, the gfs lost the storm for the most part but that is stereotypical of the GFS to loose a storm in the 7 day range and only to bring it in later. Even the weather channel is seeing the potential, and its hard to get them on board for any snow in the dallas fort worth metreoplex.

[msstateguy83]

tornado watch has been issued from a paris to bryan,tx line until 9pm

[Ntxw]

I guess well see i still think the biggest potetniall is this weekend into next week, something is brewing believe me, the gfs lost the storm for the most part but that is stereotypical of the GFS to loose a storm in the 7 day range and only to bring it in later. Even the weather channel is seeing the potential, and its hard to get them on board for any snow in the dallas fort worth metreoplex.

I have that feeling about next week also. It's just having any snow for Christmas would be nice even if it isn't on the ground.

[TexasStorm]

tornado watch has been issued from a paris to bryan,tx line until 9pm

There is actually a tornado warned cell just south of Tyler right now! Just rotation spotted in the storm, nothing on the ground.

[Texas Snowman]

OUN online weather briefing confirms that the low is stronger and moving slower than forecast.

And it seems to many of us that the low has also been generally moving somewhat further south than forecast.

With all of that in play, if a burst of moderate to heavy snow does occur in portions of Oklahoma and the low continues to track on the slow side, then I'm thinking it seems very reasonable to believe that OKC will definitely get a big ticket white Christmas snow event tomorrow. Maybe one that will be talked about for years and years. That's all hypothetical and unofficial, of course.

And if all of the above occurs and the exit route of the low pressure is closer to Texarkana than to east/central Oklahoma as currently forecast, then it seems reasonable that the white Christmas fun could include a good chunk of southern Oklahoma and perhaps even portions of North Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

OK, I'm not trying to hype this thing up or anything, but at least snow is on the mind of local forecasters on both sides of the Red River as Christmas approaches.

Here are links to White Christmas events at DFW and OUN:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=whitechristmas

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-okc-christmasday

My favorite was the 1841 white Christmas in Dallas where soldiers were tracking a bear near White Rock Lake in 6 inches of snow. Christmas snow and a bear in what is now Big D! Wow!

[PineyWoods]

There is actually a tornado warned cell just south of Tyler right now! Just rotation spotted in the storm, nothing on the ground.

Here in Tyler it has been raining off and on most of the day, but I believe that particular storm is maybe closer to Jacksonville, Tx about 30 miles south of Tyler.

Enjoying reading the possible winter weather scenarios. Thanks eveyone.

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, can't remember EVER seeing a Winter Storm Watch and a Tornado Watch butting up together on a map like they are in Oklahoma right now...

[Texas Snowman]

OUN weather graphic for Christmas Eve is now showing accumulating snow for nearly all of the state of Oklahoma now, including 1-3" in the southern Red River counties from Wichita Falls to Durant.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=6

Here's the corresponding text: "Weather Synopsis...Mild weather will persist today across southeast Oklahoma ahead of a slowly advancing cold front... while cooler temperatures will prevail to the north of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will affect southern and eastern Oklahoma. This afternoon... severe storms will be possible over part of southeast Oklahoma. From late today into Thursday, the colder air will spread southward causing a change to snow. Accumulating snow, with areas of blowing/drifting snow, will most likely affect much of Oklahoma and portions of north Texas. As the storm begins to shift to the east on Christmas Eve, blustery north winds will bring in the coldest air yet this season."

[msstateguy83]

[ntxweatherwatcher]

What about in DFW, any wintery precip here?

[Texas Snowman]

This is totally and completely unofficial, of course, but it looks to my unofficial weather eye like traveling difficulties may be in store for those traveling the I-35 corridor tomorrow anywhere north of Marietta, Okla.

Question would then become do those difficulties make it south of the Red River to places like Gainesville, Denton, and the I-20 corridor of DFW?

Edit: The answer to that question will be determined by the strength, speed, and trajectory of the low as it passes through some portion of North Texas.

Right now the official word out of the DFW NWS is no significant problems. We shall see if that changes overnight.

[msstateguy83]

i would agree with that from thackerville, marietta region in sc ok up north on i-35
and also west of i-35 over up and down i-44 basically from tulsa to okc, lawton to
wichita falls i would say is gonna wind up being a mess. but that is just my opinion
the key is this upper level low we have been talking about the further south it
is the better chances of winter precip in north tx, so alot of eyes will be watching
it as we go thru out the evening hrs.