Texas Winter 2014-2015

[SouthernMet]

Yeah, just like the Nam/cmc, but SREF has trended warmer & warmer fwiw, even the last run, so it might be a few degrees to warm.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm is the SREF using temps as currently progged, could it be off several degrees as well?

I honestly don't know how the SREF derives its dataset. Maybe one of our pro mets knows. But the SREF is a short range, ensemble model so theoretically it gathers info quicker than the globals and shows a composite model run of what a number of individual model runs show. But it is fallible. I've seen it bust before on more than one occasion for a winter event. It's just one of the tools we can look at.

[SouthernMet]

True Porta, but SREF has been VERY accurate with simulated precip, which is what concerns me.

[gboudx]

Excerpt from Steve McCauley:

Wednesday night into Thursday is still the problem forecast. Widespread precipitation will be moving in, and its timing will determine whether we see any sleet or freezing rain here in the Metroplex. For now, it appears that the wintry mix is most likely across the western half of north Texas (generally west of a line from Gainesville-Fort Worth-Waco) and then turning to all rain Thursday afternoon.
Unfortunately, chaos levels are HIGH with this event which means confidence in this specific outlook this far in advance is LOW, so expect this forecast to change. But we have plenty of time to watch. For now we see through glass darkly

As I'm posting this, we're driving through Central La back to Rockwall. Glad we'll make it before any frozen precip starts. But guess I'll need to rush to the store for bread and milk.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Like I said looks like mainly a north Texas threat probably

[Yukon Cornelius]

What is it looking like, precipitation wise for the Burkburnett/Wichita Falls area?

[SouthernMet]

There are now some sref ensembles that keep north tx at or below freezing THURSDAY, with the CMC.. NAM is 33-34 for DFW, could easily be a few degrees off..

[srainhoutx]

The current barometric sea level pressure readings from NE and E of Edmonton, Canada down to Great Falls, MT are reading in the 1054mb range. That extends further N in Alberta. Yellowknife in the NW Territories is reading 1047mb.

[SouthernMet]

Confidence is growing in light freezing rain accumulations before the sleet... : http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Please note, there is an area from Gainesville- Gatesville line (including Fort Worth & Denton) where there is a potential of .25" of ice, which is ice storm warning criteria.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Was going to add pics but so long since posted, have to refresh on "how to" . Below link to WPC specifically wanted to point out the ice probabilities. Fairly low for >.10 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml. surely subject to change



sorry southern met see you beat me to it.

[Portastorm]

I'm looking at a rough (low-res) version of the Euro per the Penn State E-wall site but the 12z run looks a bit colder for Wed-Thur in Texas than the 0z run. Some of you may have better access to higher resolution versions. Let us know what you're seeing.

[srainhoutx]

I'm looking at a rough (low-res) version of the Euro per the Penn State E-wall site but the 12z run looks a bit colder for Wed-Thur in Texas than the 0z run. Some of you may have better access to higher resolution versions. Let us know what you're seeing.

The Euro drops a piece of energy SW as the main upper low/trough moves E. It is a bit more progressive than previous runs and the overall trend today via the operational and shorter term meso guidance is to progress things a bit faster than the past several days. I tend to think by tomorrow we will have a more realistic solution as to how that very cold upper low/trough finally is somewhat resolved via the guidance. It always seems to be that way down here when we have some sort of Winter Weather event, doesn't it?

[TexasF6]

Porta, EURO is putting a 1/2 inch of snow right along I-35 down Western Travis and Willco county lines, run from today thru Jan 3rd. Cannot repost due to wxbell yadda yadda.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Porta, EURO is putting a 1/2 inch of snow right along I-35 down Western Travis and Willco county lines, run from today thru Jan 3rd. Cannot repost due to wxbell yadda yadda.

Sounds like a blizzard to me!

[PauleinHouston]

Bush Airport stayed between 39-40 all day yesterday with continuous light rain/drizzle. GFS is forecasting WARMER conditions on Thursday behind the Arctic front (low 40s and rain). Hard to believe. Looking beyond this week, the GFS has 2 other 1050+mb highs dropping south toward Texas, one makes it to Texas at nearly 1050mb. I'm afraid I won't like the next 2-3 weeks weather-wise.

On a side note, I get to choose something from the website "mymilestoneawards.com" for being with the company 30+ years. One of the items listed is Oregon Scientific's Ultra Professional Weather Station (below). It lists for around $600. Anyone have any thoughts on it? Looks decent. And the cost (free to me) is good. And since I am clearly the ultra-professional meteorologist, it seems to fit.

Looks quite similar to the Davis VP Pro 6152C that I have. Only thing wish I had gotten was the fan aspirated radiation shield...get some mid-day erroneous readings for high temps during Summer. Shy of that, looks like a comparable/great unit!

[Texas Snowman]

Wow!!!

A few of these dates will get your attention here in Texas...

"@BigJoeBastardi: RT @RyanMaue: Previous 1060 mb + high pressure cells (since 1958) over Wyoming:
Jan 9-10 1962
Dec 24, 1983
Feb 3, 1989
Feb 17, 1989
Dec 22, 1989."

[RedRiverRefuge]

Nws fwd finally issues statement regarding possible winter weather

[RedRiverRefuge]

000
WWUS84 KFWD 291817
SPSFWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1217 PM CST MON DEC 29 2014

...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE COLD
SURFACE AIR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS GENERALLY INCLUDES AN AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO WACO TO TEMPLE. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE CAN RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY.

$$

[Shoshana]

KXAN has been forecasting a "wintery mix" for later this week since last night. Their graphic has the rain east of I35 and the mix west. They're *usually* pretty accurate, although the weather doesn't always respect that I35 boundary

We're a couple of miles east of I35. I'll see what happens!

[ndale]

KXAN has been forecasting a "wintery mix" for later this week since last night. Their graphic has the rain east of I35 and the mix west. They're *usually* pretty accurate, although the weather doesn't always respect that I35 boundary

We're a couple of miles east of I35. I'll see what happens!

Shoshanna by looking at some point forecast from EWX it looks like right now they have the freezing rain stopping at Round Rock and those of us in Pflugerville forecast for cold rain.