Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

According to the 6Z GFS, the Austin vicinity will have roughly 66 consecutive hours of freezing and below temperatures from Christmas Eve through December 28th, with freezing precipitation of some sort nearly the whole day Christmas Eve. It puts down roughly six inches of snow along the I35 corridor. I'll just put that one image since it doesn't take up as much space as multiple maps at one time.
This would give the northern half of Texas a white Christmas morning!

I'm...dreaming...of a white........Christmas....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_41.png

Take note as to what it says atop that graphic "Includes Sleet". That also means freezing rain. That's not a snow depth graphic when the precip will more likely be freezing rain and sleet.

[Ntxw]

It's good to have the snow miser around for this . If the alter ego heat miser were present we'd be hearing...long range...no cold air in Canada...blah blah blah bah humbug...

Most of the cold air available in the NHEM is spilling to North America for once and not Asia! Some to Northern Africa. What cold there is, is aimed for us! Thank you Pacific Ocean!



Yes yes..he will make us pay dearly for it come summer..sigh..

[iorange55]

I have a good feeling about this event. I don't have as much knowledge as some of the other posters, but I've been on this forum a long time. It's not often we see setups like this. Most of the time, if we're going on about a possible winter storm on here, it's usually because the op model guidance is showing it. And then we start looking at all the other factors, and a lot of the time, they don't support such a storm. But we still hang on to the model runs hoping they're seeing something we're not.

It's different with this storm. All the players are on the field, and we don't have to live or die by every model run, 'cause we know they'll be playing catch up.

And yeah, I remember that monster snowstorm we had several years ago. Every forecaster was downplaying that event before it happened. No one believed it would actually snow that much here, because why would that? It doesn't happen often, so if they're looking at model runs, and they see one calling for a disastrous ice storm, and the other calling for cold & dry weather...they're going to side with the cold & dry for now because our history shows it's the safer bet. Plus, we're still 6-10 days away...let's see what happens when we move into next week.

[bubba hotep]

Over the next few days we will be moving into the range that the models have been dropping the cutoff solutions and trending back towards the low frequency background state. They keep wanting to shakeup the pattern beyond D8 - 10 but keep failing to bring that forward. We have seen 2 or 3 solid longer range events at DFW (2"+ precipitation) with considerable ensemble support fall apart as we start approaching D7.

According to the MJO forecast, the shakeup could be occurring this time around....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

The climo dependent Euro is now basically killing the MJO off before moving into Phase 8. I don't think that is necessarily a big deal for DFW unless the energy dumping into the SW retrogrades or totally shears out.

[Ntxw]

I have a good feeling about this event. I don't have as much knowledge as some of the other posters, but I've been on this forum a long time. It's not often we see setups like this. Most of the time, if we're going on about a possible winter storm on here, it's usually because the op model guidance is showing it. And then we start looking at all the other factors, and a lot of the time, they don't support such a storm. But we still hang on to the model runs hoping they're seeing something we're not.

It's different with this storm. All the players are on the field, and we don't have to live or die by every model run, 'cause we know they'll be playing catch up.

And yeah, I remember that monster snowstorm we had several years ago. Every forecaster was downplaying that event before it happened. No one believed it would actually snow that much here, because why would that? It doesn't happen often, so if they're looking at model runs, and they see one calling for a disastrous ice storm, and the other calling for cold & dry weather...they're going to side with the cold & dry for now because our history shows it's the safer bet. Plus, we're still 6-10 days away...let's see what happens when we move into next week.

This shake up has been talked about since the beginning of December. It's been around to be discussed for nearly two weeks. Then the unimaginable happened, it snowed in Austin. It will be one of the great coups for storm2k after eons of warmth.

[weatherdude1108]

According to the 6Z GFS, the Austin vicinity will have roughly 66 consecutive hours of freezing and below temperatures from Christmas Eve through December 28th, with freezing precipitation of some sort nearly the whole day Christmas Eve. It puts down roughly six inches of snow along the I35 corridor. I'll just put that one image since it doesn't take up as much space as multiple maps at one time.
This would give the northern half of Texas a white Christmas morning!

I'm...dreaming...of a white........Christmas....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_41.png

Take note as to what it says atop that graphic "Includes Sleet". That also means freezing rain. That's not a snow depth graphic when the precip will more likely be freezing rain and sleet.

Yeah, I had noticed that little "includes sleet" blurb. In my mind after seeing that blurb, I was wishful thinking "not freezing rain", I guess because I hope it isn't freezing rain, because in my experience, sleet is more manageable and easier to navigate through. It bounces off of things, and snow lends more traction for walking and driving.

The caveat is when sleet and snow melt and refreeze at night on the roadways. Then all bets are off and it may as well be freezing rain.

[MississippiWx]

Over the next few days we will be moving into the range that the models have been dropping the cutoff solutions and trending back towards the low frequency background state. They keep wanting to shakeup the pattern beyond D8 - 10 but keep failing to bring that forward. We have seen 2 or 3 solid longer range events at DFW (2"+ precipitation) with considerable ensemble support fall apart as we start approaching D7.

According to the MJO forecast, the shakeup could be occurring this time around....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

The climo dependent Euro is now basically killing the MJO off before moving into Phase 8. I don't think that is necessarily a big deal for DFW unless the energy dumping into the SW retrogrades or totally shears out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

The ECMWF is usually more trustworthy in MJO-world. Hopefully, the trend towards the circle of death doesn't continue. Like you said, it may be trending there due to climo.

[MississippiWx]

According to the MJO forecast, the shakeup could be occurring this time around....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

The climo dependent Euro is now basically killing the MJO off before moving into Phase 8. I don't think that is necessarily a big deal for DFW unless the energy dumping into the SW retrogrades or totally shears out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

The ECMWF is usually more trustworthy in MJO-world. Hopefully, the trend towards the circle of death doesn't continue. Like you said, it may be trending there due to climo.

Edit: Just look how it basically hits a wall in Phase 8 and goes to the circle of death. Kind of screams climo to me..."this isn't supposed to be this strong in this phase this time of year. I better kill it off."

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The climo dependent Euro is now basically killing the MJO off before moving into Phase 8. I don't think that is necessarily a big deal for DFW unless the energy dumping into the SW retrogrades or totally shears out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

The ECMWF is usually more trustworthy in MJO-world. Hopefully, the trend towards the circle of death doesn't continue. Like you said, it may be trending there due to climo.

Edit: Just look how it basically hits a wall in Phase 8 and goes to the circle of death. Kind of screams climo to me..."this isn't supposed to be this strong in this phase this time of year. I better kill it off."

Exactly.

[spencer817]

12z very similar on timing and strength of the front, as well as placement of precip when compared to 06z, maybe some consistency coming soon.

[sphelps8681]

What does the circle of death refer to?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Hoooo boy, it just screams ice storm

[Portastorm]

According to the 6Z GFS, the Austin vicinity will have roughly 66 consecutive hours of freezing and below temperatures from Christmas Eve through December 28th, with freezing precipitation of some sort nearly the whole day Christmas Eve. It puts down roughly six inches of snow along the I35 corridor. I'll just put that one image since it doesn't take up as much space as multiple maps at one time.
This would give the northern half of Texas a white Christmas morning!

I'm...dreaming...of a white........Christmas....

The fact that we are in the bullseye zone now ... some 7-8 days prior to an event ... usually means we won't get anything.

I'm all for sleet and snow but you can keep your freezing rain. What good would a winter weather event do ANYONE on this forum if you don't have power and the Internet to share it with everyone else?!

[spencer817]

12z very similar on timing and strength of the front, as well as placement of precip when compared to 06z, maybe some consistency coming soon.

Big ice storm developing w of DFW hour 180.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks like another big storm run

[Brent]

oh I see the GFS came back to its senses

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Still digging at 180

[stormlover2013]

guys you don't want that to pan out, that's a very very bad ice storm and miserable weather!!

[spencer817]

12z very similar on timing and strength of the front, as well as placement of precip when compared to 06z, maybe some consistency coming soon.

Big ice storm developing w of DFW hour 180.

Has the same theme of "too warm in DFW at first" that 06z had, then 06z brought the frozen precip later on...2 runs in a row, interesting...

[Ralph's Weather]

It appears to me that a lot depends on how strong the surface high becomes in regards to how quickly the freezing line pushes south. Maybe the fact that this is December and not Feb will help keep us a tad warmer as the snowpack on the Plains is not fully developed. Though right now we are right at winter solstice so the lack of sunlight may offset the lack of snowpack to the north.