Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

I know you guys are really focusing on this Wednesday event, but the FV3 might be on to the middle of January stuff when the real winter is supposed to begin...

[Cpv17]

What’s the chances of some of this making its way into Houston?

The Euro doesn’t really look all that great for the Houston area. Last nights Euro run looked better. The low was deeper and further south. I was not impressed with this last run of the Euro. The low is too far north for my liking.

[bubba hotep]

Trend at H5 looks good on the 18z 12k NAM and it is breaking out frozen precipitation across the state by the end of the run.



Reminder, this is the end of the 12k NAM so take it with a grain of salt but at H5 we notice some changes from 12z.

18z



vs. 12z



Our system in the SW is more consolidated and less influenced by the Northern Stream. Now onto the 18z GFS, we need a fold to the Euro.

[Ntxw]

NAM really drives the cold like the Euro. DFW may not get much above freezing on Weds if that is the case.

[bubba hotep]

NAM really drives the cold like the Euro. DFW may not get much above freezing on Weds if that is the case.

And look how cold the air is just to our north!

[Cpv17]

Trend at H5 looks good on the 18z 12k NAM and it is breaking out frozen precipitation across the state by the end of the run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018122918/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

Reminder, this is the end of the 12k NAM so take it with a grain of salt but at H5 we notice some changes from 12z.

18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018122918/namconus_z500a_us_51.png

vs. 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018122912/namconus_z500a_us_53.png

Our system in the SW is more consolidated and less influenced by the Northern Stream. Now onto the 18z GFS, we need a fold to the Euro.

That’s a nice trend for sure!! That baby needs to dig a tad bit further south and west so I can get in on the fun too lol

[Cpv17]

The low is so weak on the GFS. It basically is falling apart as it enters west TX.

[Texas Snow]

Relevant portions of AFDFWD

Strong cold air advection to start 2019 will result in well below
normal temperatures with highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s
in the northwest to the upper 40s in the southeast. It will feel
even colder with a breezy north wind through the day. The wind
will decrease a bit Tuesday night, allowing temperatures to fall
below freezing across nearly all zones. The northwest zones will
experience optimal radiational cooling with clearing skies and
lows in the 20s.

The forecast gets a bit more complicated as we approach sunrise
Wednesday with regards to the upper pattern. The ECMWF solution
continues to amplify a deep closed low over southern New Mexico,
the GFS is much weaker and keeps the upper low farther west, and
the Canadian solution keeps the upper trough open and
progressive. The reason this is so problematic is that the
position of the upper low is critical to the amount and location
of the moisture return as we head into Wednesday morning and since
surface temperatures will be near or below freezing, any
precipitation could be of the freezing variety. For now, have
opted to stay closer to the drier GFS and Canadian solution and
only mention a light rain/light freezing rain mix, especially
south of a Canton, Waco, Lampasas line. Since surface temperatures
should remain above 30 degrees during the morning hours where the
precipitation occurs, very little if any impacts are expected. By
Wednesday afternoon all surface temperatures will warm above
freezing and rain chances will increase with increasing large
scale lift.

Rain chances should decrease from west to east Wednesday
night/Thursday with increasing large scale subsidence behind the
departing upper system. However, some very light snow may
accompany the core of the upper low overnight Wednesday/Thursday
morning as it moves toward the northeast. We will continue to
monitor the evolution of this system since even a slight
deviation in track and strength of the upper low will affect how
much and what type of precipitation North and Central Texas sees.

[bubba hotep]

Relevant portions of AFDFWD

Strong cold air advection to start 2019 will result in well below
normal temperatures with highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s
in the northwest to the upper 40s in the southeast. It will feel
even colder with a breezy north wind through the day. The wind
will decrease a bit Tuesday night, allowing temperatures to fall
below freezing across nearly all zones. The northwest zones will
experience optimal radiational cooling with clearing skies and
lows in the 20s.

The forecast gets a bit more complicated as we approach sunrise
Wednesday with regards to the upper pattern. The ECMWF solution
continues to amplify a deep closed low over southern New Mexico,
the GFS is much weaker and keeps the upper low farther west, and
the Canadian solution keeps the upper trough open and
progressive. The reason this is so problematic is that the
position of the upper low is critical to the amount and location
of the moisture return as we head into Wednesday morning and since
surface temperatures will be near or below freezing, any
precipitation could be of the freezing variety. For now, have
opted to stay closer to the drier GFS and Canadian solution and
only mention a light rain/light freezing rain mix, especially
south of a Canton, Waco, Lampasas line. Since surface temperatures
should remain above 30 degrees during the morning hours where the
precipitation occurs, very little if any impacts are expected. By
Wednesday afternoon all surface temperatures will warm above
freezing and rain chances will increase with increasing large
scale lift.

Rain chances should decrease from west to east Wednesday
night/Thursday with increasing large scale subsidence behind the
departing upper system. However, some very light snow may
accompany the core of the upper low overnight Wednesday/Thursday
morning as it moves toward the northeast. We will continue to
monitor the evolution of this system since even a slight
deviation in track and strength of the upper low will affect how
much and what type of precipitation North and Central Texas sees.

Sounds like they are basically ignoring the Euro and EPS at this point. The point forecast for the areas that the Euro hits hard looks to be 20% of light rain in the afternoon. Not really even a hedge towards the Euro in this package.

[Cpv17]

Relevant portions of AFDFWD

Strong cold air advection to start 2019 will result in well below
normal temperatures with highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s
in the northwest to the upper 40s in the southeast. It will feel
even colder with a breezy north wind through the day. The wind
will decrease a bit Tuesday night, allowing temperatures to fall
below freezing across nearly all zones. The northwest zones will
experience optimal radiational cooling with clearing skies and
lows in the 20s.

The forecast gets a bit more complicated as we approach sunrise
Wednesday with regards to the upper pattern. The ECMWF solution
continues to amplify a deep closed low over southern New Mexico,
the GFS is much weaker and keeps the upper low farther west, and
the Canadian solution keeps the upper trough open and
progressive. The reason this is so problematic is that the
position of the upper low is critical to the amount and location
of the moisture return as we head into Wednesday morning and since
surface temperatures will be near or below freezing, any
precipitation could be of the freezing variety. For now, have
opted to stay closer to the drier GFS and Canadian solution and
only mention a light rain/light freezing rain mix, especially
south of a Canton, Waco, Lampasas line. Since surface temperatures
should remain above 30 degrees during the morning hours where the
precipitation occurs, very little if any impacts are expected. By
Wednesday afternoon all surface temperatures will warm above
freezing and rain chances will increase with increasing large
scale lift.

Rain chances should decrease from west to east Wednesday
night/Thursday with increasing large scale subsidence behind the
departing upper system. However, some very light snow may
accompany the core of the upper low overnight Wednesday/Thursday
morning as it moves toward the northeast. We will continue to
monitor the evolution of this system since even a slight
deviation in track and strength of the upper low will affect how
much and what type of precipitation North and Central Texas sees.

Sounds like they are basically ignoring the Euro and EPS at this point. The point forecast for the areas that the Euro hits hard looks to be 20% of light rain in the afternoon. Not really even a hedge towards the Euro in this package.

Well the GFS and FV3 don’t have any precip anywhere near DFW.

[Ntxw]

It will be interesting if there is still divergence between the GFS group vs Euro/Ukmet bunch. We're talking about within 5 days and Euro showing warning criteria that warrants watches if it pans out. Tough forecast until one caves. 0z will be yet another critical watch, many staying up for the Euro

[Ntxw]

One thing I'd like to point out is that the GFS is still consistently the warm outlier even to the FV3.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Did someone wrestle the winter weather controller away form a certain heatmiser from Houston? I swore he was taunting us on here winter in Texas was going to be MIA until mid Jan?

[Cpv17]

Well the FV3 is trending weaker as well.

[northjaxpro]

18Z Operational GFS drops not only wintry precip solution for TX, but for the entire Mid-South region. It shears out the shortwave energy and it also stays suppressed across LA, MS and east across the Gulf Coast region over 114 hour period . Also, as Ntxw referenced, the GFS is warmer than EURO this run.

[Ntxw]

Did someone wrestle the winter weather controller away form a certain heatmiser from Houston? I swore he was taunting us on here winter in Texas was going to be MIA until mid Jan?

I warned the board not to let him trick you guys! He watches models with heated glasses

[Texas Snow]

Did someone wrestle the winter weather controller away form a certain heatmiser from Houston? I swore he was taunting us on here winter in Texas was going to be MIA until mid Jan?

Shhhhh...I am currently in Houston visiting my brother and working some secret cold spells to negate his effects as long as I can.

Hopefully I can lock it down to a wintry solution before heading back to play in the fresh powder to come

[Portastorm]

Did someone wrestle the winter weather controller away form a certain heatmiser from Houston? I swore he was taunting us on here winter in Texas was going to be MIA until mid Jan?

I warned the board not to let him trick you guys! He watches models with heated glasses

Let’s not poke the bear! I’m afraid we’ll find the 0z Euro overnight showing 70 degrees for Wednesday.

[Texas Snow]

Hmmm, not sure what to think about this. Other than it’s a start...

[orangeblood]

One thing I'd like to point out is that the GFS is still consistently the warm outlier even to the FV3.

18z GEFS caves to the Euro, solid mean 1-2 inches of snow across North Texas into the Hill Country (with some much heavier individual members....would expect Ops to beginning trending towards Euro within the next few runs!!!!