Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

it looks like oun is just going with winter weather advisory critiaria even for areas of the winter
storm watch... just coming down i will get details and get back.

[Texas Snowman]

Winter storm warnings for Oklahoma generally north of I-44 and winter weather advisory for the rest of the OUN forecast area. Winter Storm watches still up in NE Oklahoma , so nearly the entire state of Oklahoma is expecting accumulating snow tomorrow.

[msstateguy83]

i will add there are ALOT of factors here we are detail with, frontal position, the track of the low and some 'dry slotting' concerns across portions of the area which could limit the snow amounts, just looking at the wrf i saw some concerns on there with 'dry pockets'
looking over the latest the winter wx advisory is from midnight - tomorrow afternoon for snow up to 3 inches in the advisory area including nw tx, sw, central some of sc ok.


edit: my mistake winter storm warn for central ok..

[msstateguy83]

is it just me or does others agree with me this has the stuff there to be far worse then just a couple inches over a large portion of ok and far nw tx?

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
LOTS GOING ON TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...INITIALLY EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH
TEXAS AND TRANSITIONS NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND BACK INTO THE
INTERSTATE 35 AREA. AGAIN...HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT BUT BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A TORNADO.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST...REACHING SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
LATE MORNING. THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG...AND WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SOME SNOW IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WE DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION.
AGAIN...SHOULD THE UPPER LOW TRACK END UP FARTHER SOUTH...THE
SNOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE ALONG WITH IT. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OUT INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

PER THE 12Z GFS...THIS SYSTEM HAS 500MB HEIGHTS...STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...MORE THAN 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE AVERAGES.
THESE STRONG SYSTEMS ARE RARE...AND THUS THE ESTIMATES OF A
COUPLE OF FEET OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE STRONG WINDS
IN TEXAS...AND THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED
BY UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not trying to "wishcast" anything here because I don't see the snowstorm of the century setting up for North Texas, but I did find this wording interesting in the Ft. Worth AFD...

"SHOULD THE UPPER LOW TRACK END UP FARTHER SOUTH...THE
SNOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE ALONG WITH IT."

That would seem to me to indicate that they have some uncertainty and that perhaps an even more southerly track is possible in their minds.

[msstateguy83]

i just looked @ the 18z nam and it putting out some heavy precip near me in the am - around noon tomorrow
with temps right around 32. almost 1" liquid form.

[Texas Snowman]

I think one thing that will need to be monitored in Oklahoma for sure tomorrow will be the visibility issues with the wind and falling snow.

Ft. Worth AFD said sustained near 30 mph here.

If there is moderate to heavy snow in Oklahoma as forecast, could be whiteout conditions, maybe even blizzard like conditions.

EDIT: From the OUN Winter Storm Warning Information:

MAIN IMPACT: NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AND ACCUMULATION UP TO 5 INCHES IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND 8 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

[Texas Snowman]

Afternoon forecast update from KXII-TV met Steve LaNore (Sherman/Denison/Ardmore):

"Get ready for a winter wallop on Christmas Eve.

An arctic front will blast through overnight with much colder air pouring through Texoma. Since an upper low is expected to lag behind the front, it is expected to provide lift to generate snow over portions of our area. Snowfall amounts look to be more substantial than forecasted yesterday, ranging from just a dusting over the southeast to perhaps 4” in the north and west.

Very strong northwesterly winds and even heavier snow over central and northern Oklahoma will make travel very difficult tomorrow the further north you go. A Wind Advisory has already been posted for the Texas counties in the KXII viewing area. Winds tomorrow in the cold air may gust over 40mph!

Dangerously low wind chills from zero to ten degrees are quite likely during the day Thursday. The sun should return Christmas Day as the storm moves away. Winds will ease too, but it will stay very cold through the weekend.

Another upper trough next week may have enough cold air to work with for another potential snow event.

Here are the numbers:

Tonight: Cloudy, windy, colder…..Lows 35-50
Christmas Eve: 90% Rain/Snow, Very Windy …..Falling Temps to 20s late afternoon
Christmas Day: Partly Cloudy, Windy …. 23/37"

[Texas Snowman]

Another afternoon tidbit from KXII-TV met Steve LaNore:

"UPDATE: 3:10p.m. Wed 23 Dec 2009

The situation has changed somewhat as the upper low is coming in a bit further south. This boosts the snowfall potential especially over the northern half of Texoma (as mentioned in the first discussion from Monday). Since this system will tend to "wobble" about a bit, snowfall is also possible ion the Texas side of the river, but in general the chances for significant snowcover will increase as you move northward. Near blizzard conditions are possible in the Tulsa area, and possibly Oklahoma City as well, Thursday."

[TrekkerCC]

Am I seeing things or are the dewpoints dropping faster than the models are projecting (drier air is filtering in more quickly). According to the RUC 18z run, Addison airport should have a dewpoint around 62F, but the dewpoint is currently 54F right now (3PM observation). This might mean that the threat of severe weather might be diminishing in the immediate North Texas area.

[msstateguy83]

look @ this...



edit: i believe this will be in line with the low track much further to the south, which could lead to higher
amounts near sw ok into nw tx close to say like lawton, w.falls areas.. if this trend keeps up i would expect
oun to upgrade winter wx advisory for the w.falls area to winter storm warn.. but time will tell..

[iorange55]

Ugh I'd drive up north to see it but its Christmas Eve. I think I just want to not look at any weather things and just see what happens tomorrow. I hate how we always barely miss the past few years either just north, west, south.



come on monther nature.



However the new 18 gfs shows the best possibility of snow yet for us



24 hrs




30 hrs

[Texas Snowman]

Ugh I'd drive up north to see it but its Christmas Eve. I think I just want to not look at any weather things and just see what happens tomorrow. I hate how we always barely miss the past few years either just north, west, south.



come on monther nature.

Know what you mean, know what you mean.

I mean when Victoria, Texas gets a 13" white Christmas and Corpus a 5" white Christmas in this decade, I think it's only fair that we up here in the North Texas area get some kind of Christmas snow once in a lifetime!!!!

Right now, in my neck of the woods, I'm not expecting much more than a dusting here in the Texoma region south of the Red River. But 3-5" on Christmas morning, now that would be a dream come true!

[Texas Snowman]

One thing seems certain, there looks to be plenty of snowcover in the Great Plains for future cold air masses to travel southward over.

Whatever happens tomorrow, next week towards New Years could be pretty interesting and cold.

[Texas Snowman]

If you live in Oklahoma, according to this KOCO.com map, Bing is crooning about a white Christmas and Doris Day and Frank Sinatra are singing "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!"

That's SO VERY CLOSE to my North Texas backyard, surely some snow will spill over Lake Texoma and onto my lawn!?! Please?!?

[Texas Snowman]

From WFAA.com, updated at 4:01 p.m.:

"THURSDAY - Morning rain, mixing with and changing to snow. Accumulation one inch or less on grassy surfaces. One to three inches north of a Denton-McKinney line. High: 44 falling to 34 by late afternoon with wind chills in the 10's and 20s. Winds: NW 25-35, G."

[iorange55]

From WFAA.com, updated at 4:01 p.m.:

"THURSDAY - Morning rain, mixing with and changing to snow. Accumulation one inch or less on grassy surfaces. One to three inches north of a Denton-McKinney line. High: 44 falling to 34 by late afternoon with wind chills in the 10's and 20s. Winds: NW 25-35, G."

So the one inch would be for Dallas? I'LL TAKE IT. i ain't greedy

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

i might ruffle some feathers again about being so blunt with my forecast but
after looking at both the nam/gfs i would say along i-20 across the metroplex
including dallas 1-2 inches by tomorrow afternoon. i would go up to 4 inches
for areas denton, plano, gainesville,sherman-denison and over towards bowie.
then nw of there towards my area iam thinking anywhere from 5-8 inches
around the wichita falls, lawton areas and a wide area of say 3-6 across
central, southwestern, southcentral ok.

[msstateguy83]

18z gfs is showing serious cold sticking with us thru the weekend into next week...