Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WeatherNewbie]

The problem forecasters face is if they even mention freezing precip in their forecast, the general public overreacts. And then if it does not verify, the forecaster gets crucified even if they were properly cautionary in the probabilities in their forecast. Us weather enthusiasts love Cavanaugh's discussions, but he could never put out a forecast like that for general consumption. Most would not read it, and those that do would just focus on the mention of freezing precip and hold him to it. It reminds me of one of my favorite movie quotes. "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals..."

Along those lines though, if the forecast shows a low of 32 and some light rain 6PM NYE then by 2AM it is 29 with light freezing rain there will also be a huge backlash. It is a very tough call that will have to be made in less than 36 hours. If things stay as they are I would issue a winter storm watch tonight for a large portion of the state for NYE evening through Friday morning just in case.

For whatever reason, they seem to get slammed harder for false positives (predicting ice when there ends up being none) than they do for false negatives (oh no, we got surprised by the ice). Thus, the generally conservative forecasts.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the main threat from this system, unfortunately, will be freezing rain. Also, both the EURO and GFS have flipped on repeated shots of cold air after this week. Both models now put the mean trough position in the NE, with above normal heights in the southern plains and south. This variability in the pattern should come as no surprise as there is no dominant feature controlling the weather pattern. I would expect this variability to continue the rest of the winter. BTW, According to Ryan Maue, December is going to finish well above normal for the contiguous 48:"December has been warm over CONUS, almost 2°C above 30-yr normal".








Take my forecast with a grain salt as I be no meterologist.

[SouthernMet]

18z nam & latest SREF say not so fast! Bring in precip a lot later than recent trends.

[TexasF6]

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/currents/ ... mp/us.html

From HAMwx

[Yukon Cornelius]

They seem to have taken Wichita County out of the Special Weather Statement that was originally issued for this area.

[SouthernMet]

Winter Storm Watch up for a large portion of west texas, for ice accumulations.

Unbelievable how quiet it is in on here.

[iorange55]

Winter Storm Watch up for a large portion of west texas, for ice accumulations.

Unbelievable how quiet it is in on here.

Honestly, I'd comment more but I feel like work has sucked the weather knowledge out of me. There was a time when I knew all the sites for every single model, but now I can't even keep track of the main models.

Like others have been saying, it's extremely likely that the temps will be colder than what the models are currently showing. Will the precip be here in time to cause a lot of trouble? I hope not. I enjoy winter weather, but I'd rather not have another ice storm.

Give us some snow! I need another 12 inches in my backyard. That last sentence would look strange taken out of context.

[gpsnowman]

Winter Storm Watch up for a large portion of west texas, for ice accumulations.

Unbelievable how quiet it is in on here.

Maybe this will be one of those instances where all the watches, advisories etc. start west and slowly move east as the event nears.

[dhweather]

For whatever reason, they seem to get slammed harder for false positives (predicting ice when there ends up being none) than they do for false negatives (oh no, we got surprised by the ice). Thus, the generally conservative forecasts.

That's because the public, in general, grossly overreact to the hint of winter weather. They get mad because they go buy all of the milk and bread in all of the stores then nothing happens.

They should be thankful a major ice/winter event did not happen, but they choose to react differently. Predicting wintry weather in Texas is one of the hardest things mets (or anyone else) has to do. So many things have to be just right for it to happen. Literally 1-2 degrees difference makes a forecast a "bust". It is unrealistic to expect that, IMHO.

[gpsnowman]

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/current/a ... 00x405.jpg
This according weather.com.
Looks like leading edge approaching the Panhandle.

[TheProfessor]

I just got back from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, and they seem to be thinking that The cold front will only make it to the Texas-Mexico border and then pulled back north as a warm front because of the low pressure.

[davidiowx]

I just got back from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, and they seem to be thinking that The cold front will only make it to the Texas-Mexico border and then pulled back north as a warm front because of the low pressure.

Interesting. That could happen I suppose. IIRC, Wxman57 was saying the other day the front will push well into the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan. I guess we will see as the event unfolds. I have no idea how far south it gets but those are some brutally cold temps up in the Dakotas and Montana area and they are already entering the panhandle.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah it seems that the models are underestimating the front, which would usually send it further south then predicted.

[aggiecutter]

I was just looking at some area NWS forecast for this week. The forecast for Dallas only has one night this week with sub-freezing temperatures. It'll be interesting to see if this verifies.

[TheProfessor]

That 12z CMC has a 1051mb high in Kansas

[gpsnowman]

Ok. Just watched a local weather report on the 4 o'clock news. I found the forecast a bit odd. According to the report the arctic front reaches the area around 1am. Clears all of North Texas by 4am leaving us with cloudy skies, a stiff north wind and a 7am temp at 32 degrees. What I find odd is by afternoon the temp hits 40 degrees. I find it hard to believe that an arctic front reaching all the way deep into Mexico, a stiff north wind and cloudy skies would allow the temp to climb that high. Am I missing something? Maybe someone with more weather smarts than me could explain this. Or maybe it is was has been said by many, the models are not handling this well at all.
Also, the same media outlet earlier today mentioned a high of 45 on Tuesday this morning, so it is trending down.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is only 8 in Denver right now with snow, they are not supposed to reach 0 tomorrow. Only made it into the mid 40s here when upper 50s were forecasted a couple days ago, the sun never broke out here.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ok. Just watched a local weather report on the 4 o'clock news. I found the forecast a bit odd. According to the report the arctic front reaches the area around 1am. Clears all of North Texas by 4am leaving us with cloudy skies, a stiff north wind and a 7am temp at 32 degrees. What I find odd is by afternoon the temp hits 40 degrees. I find it hard to believe that an arctic front reaching all the way deep into Mexico, a stiff north wind and cloudy skies would allow the temp to climb that high. Am I missing something? Maybe someone with more weather smarts than me could explain this. Or maybe it is was has been said by many, the models are not handling this well at all.
Also, the same media outlet earlier today mentioned a high of 45 on Tuesday this morning, so it is trending down.

I don't see the temp rising after the front passes tomorrow.

[iorange55]

Ok. Just watched a local weather report on the 4 o'clock news. I found the forecast a bit odd. According to the report the arctic front reaches the area around 1am. Clears all of North Texas by 4am leaving us with cloudy skies, a stiff north wind and a 7am temp at 32 degrees. What I find odd is by afternoon the temp hits 40 degrees. I find it hard to believe that an arctic front reaching all the way deep into Mexico, a stiff north wind and cloudy skies would allow the temp to climb that high. Am I missing something? Maybe someone with more weather smarts than me could explain this. Or maybe it is was has been said by many, the models are not handling this well at all.
Also, the same media outlet earlier today mentioned a high of 45 on Tuesday this morning, so it is trending down.

I also find it amusing that they keep saying "arctic front" and "Be prepared, folks! It's going to be cold!" But then they show their forecast, and temps barely make it below freezing.

Doesn't sound like an arctic front to me.

[gpsnowman]

Totally agree Ralphs weather, and iorange55. The daytime temp might stabilize at some point but not reaching 40. And it is strange to see all of the "arctic blast" headlines but the temps not reflecting one.