Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Portastorm]

and their ensembles have been suggesting upper air amplification along the US west coast with high pressure ridging deep into the northern latitudes and some degree of high latitude blocking


Why can't these guys just use English instead of some weird kind of Magical Mystery words?

Here's your translation: It's probably going to be colder than normal in much of the US east of the Rockies. How's that? Simple enough for you?

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z GEM and even 6Z GFS showing some light snow on Monday. GEM has high near freezing likely as it has a bit heavier precip. GFS has highs in upper 30s and near 40.

[DonWrk]

Is 20% chance rain/snow a good bet for OKC on Saturday? Plan on taking a load of cattle up I-35 on Saturday morning and would like some input.

[wxman57]

Is 20% chance rain/snow a good bet for OKC on Saturday? Plan on taking a load of cattle up I-35 on Saturday morning and would like some input.

20% chance may be about right, but any precip (rain or snow) would be extremely light - too light to impede traffic at all.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With this type of upper pattern, the air should be much colder than what the models are showing. Can anyone else confirm? An HP from near Siberia, passing through the arctic and entering the US at only 1040MB seems a bit low to me.

Last night researched the Reanalysis of everytime it snowed in Houston. Lots of interesting diff types of patterns and one of them is the type we will be seeing over the next few weeks. My concern is that the models arent showing enough cold for us yet! Fingers crossed.

[Portastorm]

Saw an interesting factoid in the latest SCIPP newsletter last night: the temperature in Houston has dropped below 19 degrees F 50 times in the past 122 years. But none of those instances occurred during one of the 20 strongest El Ninos recorded.

[stormlover2013]

all this model watching, gives everyone a headache......overall pattern next week favors cold but will there be any disturbances who knows that will be the telling story, EURO and CMC has been most consistent but who knows they could be wrong..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow:

Saw an interesting factoid in the latest SCIPP newsletter last night: the temperature in Houston has dropped below 19 degrees F 50 times in the past 122 years. But none of those instances occurred during one of the 20 strongest El Ninos recorded.

Ive been alive for two of them i think. 1996 and 1989. '96 i remember quite well. It was a bright and sunny day and we still didnt cross freezing for over two days. Typically we need a weak La nina for those big massive highs.

[Ntxw]

Did Houston not get into the teens during 1965-1966 or 1972-1973? I know DFW got to the single digits, very unusual for strong Nino's, but it's tough digging up Houston numbers.

[Ntxw]

At 5h the 12z GFS looks way different than the 0z at 240 which looked miles away from 12z yesterday at 252 lol (all three representing the same time period)

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian looks interesting for North/NE Texas Sat and Sun

[Tireman4]

Did Houston not get into the teens during 1965-1966 or 1972-1973? I know DFW got to the single digits, very unusual for strong Nino's, but it's tough digging up Houston numbers.

Do not forget 1983 was way below 19 in Houston...and to answer your question (for 72-73), I do not think so. I was alive (first grade..LOL...well I was alive 65-66, but an infant..LOL) and I remember the upper 20's

[orangeblood]

At 5h the 12z GFS looks way different than the 0z at 240 which looked miles away from 12z yesterday at 252 lol (all three representing the same time period)

The main culprit for all of this appears to be it's handling of the MJO, which it continues to spin around in Phase 7 while most other models bring it thru Phase 8 into 1.

[Ntxw]

Did Houston not get into the teens during 1965-1966 or 1972-1973? I know DFW got to the single digits, very unusual for strong Nino's, but it's tough digging up Houston numbers.

Do not forget 1983 was way below 19 in Houston...and to answer your question (for 72-73), I do not think so. I was alive (first grade..LOL...well I was alive 65-66, but an infant..LOL) and I remember the upper 20's

1983 was December though, winter of 1983-1984 in a weak Nina. The super Nino was 1982-1983

[Tireman4]

Did Houston not get into the teens during 1965-1966 or 1972-1973? I know DFW got to the single digits, very unusual for strong Nino's, but it's tough digging up Houston numbers.

Do not forget 1983 was way below 19 in Houston...and to answer your question (for 72-73), I do not think so. I was alive (first grade..LOL...well I was alive 65-66, but an infant..LOL) and I remember the upper 20's

1983 was December though, winter of 1983-1984 in a weak Nina. The super Nino was 1982-1983

Humm....I think this will turn out to be a very interesting Winter/Spring.

[hriverajr]

Until I see really cold air on the Canadian border and if it begins to move more south or to the east, then I will be more interested. Until then bah. Not going to look at a model all day.

[Tireman4]

Until I see really cold air on the Canadian border and if it begins to move more south or to the east, then I will be more interested. Until then bah. Not going to look at a model all day.

Well heck sir, I would not either. It is bi-polar ( speaking of that, I miss the Bi-Polar Wxman 57. He was a real hoot. One for the ages. For the noobies around here, he was making forecasts..contradicting himself...it was just amazing. The man is born showman..LOL), schizophrenic and just downright on crack.

[Ntxw]

Bipolar wxman57 can be seen here. March 2014. What a winter that was!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=116197

[Tireman4]

Snowfall possible in the Panhandle today ..


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
TRAVERSE W TX AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS
TODAY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. GREATEST AND HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS AT KAMA BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TYPE. HAVE GONE WITH
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT KAMA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION THREAT DIMINISHES MARKEDLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVER SO SLOWLY APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
OUT AHEAD OF IT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. LATEST TRAJECTORY OF PRECIP IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED...THIS COULD CHANGE HOW PRECIP IS DISTRIBUTED LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE U.S/MEXICO BORDER SO THINK OTHER THAN A
TEMPORARY TREND...PRECIP WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN ON TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY JUST THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION TO THIS STRUGGLE...PTYPE
COULD ALSO BE DIFFICULT TODAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THOUGH
SOME WET BULB COOLING WILL STILL LIKELY OCCUR...HAVE LIMITED
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO AREAS WITH HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS I THINK THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AS OF NOW...HAVE ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF INCH TO AN INCH
FROM AMARILLO SOUTHWESTWARD...THOUGH THIS COULD EASILY SHIFT EITHER
DIRECTION DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE LINGERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND A SMALL AREA OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S SO PTYPE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC...AND
WHEN IT BECOMES DISLODGED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME WANT TO DEVELOP A SMALL CLOSED LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PANHANDLES AND DRY SLOT THE
AREA...OTHERS KEEP IT AS AN OPEN WAVE. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH A
DRIER FORECAST AND LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
EARLY THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOSTLY JUST THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
MUCH COLDER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE PANHANDLES...AND WHEN A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SMALL CLOSED
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THIS TIME WITH ACCUMULATIONS
FAVORING MAINLY THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND VARY AGAIN ON THE TRAJECTORY AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE
TROUGH/WAVE TRAVERSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

[Ntxw]

Euro is definitely trying to head towards the Canadian for Sat-Sun. What was bone dry is now a fairly vigorious system crossing coastal Texas and precip along the Red River with 850s approaching 0C or less. 546dm heights digging into the eastern half of the state, so likely some CAA.