Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

One thing I'd like to point out is that the GFS is still consistently the warm outlier even to the FV3.

18z GEFS caves to the Euro, solid mean 1-2 inches of snow across North Texas into the Hill Country (with some much heavier individual members....would expect Ops to beginning trending towards Euro within the next few runs!!!!

Have any visuals for these members? Or know where i can find them?

[Brent]

GEFS still has a long way to go

[Yukon Cornelius]

This must be strictly a NE TX chance. My forecast has partly sunny on Wednesday.

[orangeblood]

GEFS still has a long way to go

http://i65.tinypic.com/w8kffq.jpg

Not sure how that site is depicting its data but the paid site I look at doesn’t look anything close to that (18 of 22 members showing some sort of accumulation across North Central Texas)...moisture is there on the 18Z GEFS and so is the frozen precipitation it appears, pretty drastic trend from previous runs

[Brent]

GEFS still has a long way to go

http://i65.tinypic.com/w8kffq.jpg

Not sure how that site is depicting its data but the paid site I look at doesn’t look anything close to that (18 of 22 members showing some sort of accumulation across North Central Texas)...moisture is there on the 18Z GEFS and so is the frozen precipitation it appears, pretty drastic trend from previous runs

Now this does look somewhat better but yeah I'm not sure because theres a mean map that looks way better lol

[bubba hotep]

Looking at the meteograms from the 18z GEFS, it looks like about half the members show precipitation at DFW airport while the GFS and FV3 are bone dry.

[bubba hotep]

21z SREF is interesting with some of the members bringing precipitation into DFW as early as 12z on the 2nd (end of the run). Also, some members have temps in the low 20s.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM as far as it gets for the time frame looks like a major storm in the works, on the run.

[bubba hotep]

Just a wee bit of difference between the American models:

00z 12k NAM - Bam!



18z GFS - a lot weaker



18z FV3 - ????

[bubba hotep]

00z 12k NAM just getting started, this would be a huge TX Winter Storm, if it went out to 102hrs

[orangeblood]

0z NAM as far as it gets for the time frame looks like a major storm in the works, on the run.

As is typically expected...models going towards KING EURO

[Cpv17]

Just a wee bit of difference between the American models:

00z 12k NAM - Bam!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018123000/namconus_z500a_us_53.png

18z GFS - a lot weaker

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122918/gfs_z500a_us_16.png

18z FV3 - ????

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122918/fv3p_z500a_us_16.png

Wow

[Jarodm12]

OMG OMG OMG! I've b en watching the models and I haven't said anything but this is starting to look legit !I'm in Durant I can't wait ! With temps in the 20s everything that falls will stick! Is this really happening ? WSW tomorrow? This ce out of no where , I hope the rest of the winter is like this because we've got about 10 weeks left ! Stay frosty everyone!

[bubba hotep]

Predicting what the GFS will do is always a fools errand but here goes, it caves to the Euro at 00z. Then we will see FWD introduce winter mix into the grids with the overnight packages, if the Euro holds.

[Jarodm12]

Predicting what the GFS will do is always a fools errand but here goes, it caves to the Euro at 00z. Then we will see FWD introduce winter mix into the grids with the overnight packages, if the Euro holds.

What's the likelihood the euro would totally change course this close to the event?

[Ntxw]

Predicting what the GFS will do is always a fools errand but here goes, it caves to the Euro at 00z. Then we will see FWD introduce winter mix into the grids with the overnight packages, if the Euro holds.

I'll make a similar guess and I think the GFS will cave. If not tonight it will at least take a step to the Euro. You don't bet against Euro/Ukmet combo.

As for the Euro there is still room there for more improvements towards a more impactful event.

[Jarodm12]

NTXW which way does the euro seem to be trending ?

[Ntxw]

NTXW which way does the euro seem to be trending ?

The past several days have trended more towards a sig event.

One thing I am starting to see is if the storm may create more overrunning than anticipated well ahead of its passage while we have below freezing surface temperatures.

[bubba hotep]

Predicting what the GFS will do is always a fools errand but here goes, it caves to the Euro at 00z. Then we will see FWD introduce winter mix into the grids with the overnight packages, if the Euro holds.

What's the likelihood the euro would totally change course this close to the event?

Nothing is a lock at this range. I've made a few post highlighting some of the smaller differences in the models and how they impact the outcome. There are still a lot of Euro EPS members that show no storm. Usually, at this range we are worried about temps but I think moisture return is probably one of the key things to watch. Obviously, a lot a of factors play into how quickly and to what extent we see moisture return but it is a good proxy to watch.

[Brent]

Predicting what the GFS will do is always a fools errand but here goes, it caves to the Euro at 00z. Then we will see FWD introduce winter mix into the grids with the overnight packages, if the Euro holds.

What's the likelihood the euro would totally change course this close to the event?

Almost never does the euro cave once it gets consistent so i tend to doubt it will but anything's possible lol

At least this storm temps wont be an issue like the other threats so far