Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Gotwood]

CMC coming in cold again looks like snow again for Texas.

[jaguars_22]

Christmas 2004 miracle coming!!!! Corpus to Victoria to Houston…

[Stratton23]

CMC brings a mixed wintry bag as well as a couple rounds of precipitation

[Ntxw]

CMC brings a mixed wintry bag as well as a couple rounds of precipitation

It hangs the trough in the Baja.

[Harp.1]

CMC actually good for my area

[Cpv17]

CMC brings a mixed wintry bag as well as a couple rounds of precipitation

It hangs the trough in the Baja.

Timing is everything.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

00z GFS
big snowstorm for houston

Also shows San Antonio getting clocked too. The entire I-10 corridor from Junction to the TX/LA border would be a total mess from 162 hour mark to 180 hour mark.

[Harp.1]

Euro??

[Cpv17]

Euro??

Coming soon.

[Brandon8181]

Euro??

Its running now.

[SnowintheFalls]

So is snow off the table entirely for north Texas? South Texas and potentially Oklahoma to up north seem to be the primary discussion.

[Stratton23]

Euro has a Rain/snow mix in houston, houston gets an inch or so of snow, not bad considering the 12z run had absolutely nothing

[Brandon8181]

So is snow off the table entirely for north Texas? South Texas and potentially Oklahoma to up north seem to be the primary discussion.

I would say to early to tell. I believe we are seeing agreement in cooler temperatures and I think it is likely someone will see winter precip. I really think at this point it is just to early to tell exactly where with any reasonable confidence. Models have been really flip floppy on exact location truthfully.

[Cpv17]

Euro has a Rain/snow mix in houston, houston gets an inch or so of snow, not bad considering the 12z run had absolutely nothing

At this point about all we can look for is trends and that seems to be one in the right direction.

[Throckmorton]

Austin Camp Mabry just had its warmest calendar year on record, which includes 119 years of data. 2024's average temperature of 72.8° shattered the previous record of 72.3°, which was set in 2023.

The local climate has warmed by 4.6° F (2.6° C) since 1898, and that warming has been accellerating. The ten warmest years on record have all been since 1999.

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Austin Camp Mabry also just had its third–warmest December on record.

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The amount of climate warming at locations in Texas and Oklahoma since the year indicated (LOESS curve method, in °F):

.4.7°...1892...Amarillo
.4.6°...1898...Austin
.4.4°...1887...El Paso
.4.3°...1888...Corpus Christi
.4.0°...1916...Lubbock
.3.8°...1878...Brownsville
.3.7°...1931...Midland / Odessa
.3.5°...1899...Dallas / Fort Worth
.3.4°...1886...Abilene
.3.4°...1898...Houston
.3.2°...1886...San Antonio
.3.1°...1870...Galveston
.3.1°...1931...San Angelo
.2.9°...1898...Tyler
.2.7°...1891...Oklahoma City
.2.6°...1906...Tulsa
.2.3°...1890...College Station
.1.7°...1910...Beaumont / Port Arthur
.1.3°...1906...Victoria
.0.6°...1902...Waco
-1.2°...1924...Wichita Falls

[Lagreeneyes03]

So is snow off the table entirely for north Texas? South Texas and potentially Oklahoma to up north seem to be the primary discussion.

That makes me absolutely livid. No freaking way dude...

[Throckmorton]

From Judah Cohen's blog of December 30th:

The battle continues and in the Impacts section I discuss the competing influences of a strong polar vortex (PV) and high latitude blocking on the upcoming weather in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). But the high-latitude blocking comeback continues this week and may be getting the upper hand. So far this winter it is all about the PV stretching and then relaxing over and over again in quick succession. There is currently a Canadian Warming. As we start the New Year we are back to a stretched PV. But what comes next?

Plain Language Summary

We have an upcoming rare occurrence of two overlapping response to two modes of PV variability impacting different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. First a Canadian warming has spawned a Greenland high pressure that will deliver colder and snowier weather for Europe in early January (Figures 6 and 7). Then a stretched PV will spawn Alaskan high pressure that will deliver colder and snowier weather for the Eastern US in early January (Figures 6 and 7). What comes next is highly uncertain and I share my latest thoughts but buckle up, it promises to be a wild ride.

Impacts

The PV continues to transition to different phases or modes at breakneck speed. In December it was stretched PV events quickly followed by a snap back to a strong PV and then the whole cycle repeating itself. Then the PV added a new trick right at the end of December, a Canadian warming. Then this will transition to yet another stretched PV in early January. The current Canadian warming and the stretched PV can both be seen in the latest PV animation in Figure i.

The upcoming stretched PV will be by far the most impressive of the season. With these events I have included energy diagnostics to illustrate wave reflection. During wave reflection, wave energy goes up over Asia, bouncing off the stratospheric PV and then downward over North America. The downward wave energy amplifies the ridge-trough wave over North America and determines the strength or amplitude of the North American wave and the axis or position (see Figure ii). This wave reflection event is quite robust and seems to me one of the best examples that I can recall, and I do think that is contributing to the severity of the cold air outbreak predicted for the Eastern US for the second week of January. This is also likely helping to overcome some shortcomings with this stretched PV (as in producing extreme winter weather) including a lack of antecedent cold air in both Siberia and the North American Arctic, well below normal North American snow cover extent and a PV that is normal to strong. In other stretched PV events that resulted in severe winter weather the PV was weaker than normal, with February 2021, December 2022 and January 2024 as recent examples. But the event hasn’t happened yet and I do believe that extreme cold is as hard for the models to predict as Northeast snowstorms.

The resultant ridging with the wave reflection (arrows boomeranging off the Alaska ridging shown in orange shading) is around 120ºW and the resultant trough starting to take shape (blue shading where the arrows are pointed downward) is around 80ºW (see Figure iib). This is on the eastward envelope of strong wave reflection events and would favor the cold air being focused in the Eastern US rather than the Western or even Central US. The energy diagnostics in Figure ii are very volatile and can change from day to day so caution is needed when using them to forecast but this upcoming forecast of wave reflection has been unusually consistent. Stretched PVs are not only associated with extreme cold but also snowstorms and both are risks starting later this week for the next ten days or so in the Eastern US.

Stretched PVs deliver severe winter weather not only to North America but also East Asia. Some events are more severe in East Asia, some events are severe in both East Asis and North America, but this event will clearly be more severe in North America than East Asia. Still there will be a cold air outbreak and additional snowfall in East Asia as well at the end of next week. It will likely add to the already very impressive snow totals in Japan this winter (see tweet from Thierry Goose).

But given the rapidity of PV variability we are seeing the influences on the tropospheric circulation of two PV phases or modes co-existing simultaneously. The current Canadian warming spawned blocking high pressure over Northeastern Canada. Initially the weather models had the resultant high pressure quickly making its way towards Europe. This would have likely resulted in some colder for Europe but of short duration. In a reversal, the models are now predicting that the blocking high pressure will park itself over Greenland for much of the next two weeks (see Figure iii). I actually believe that this model forecast reversal is related to the ensuing stretched PV or wave reflection event. For the sake of simplicity, I will not explain my reasoning as it is a bit technical. The more stationary blocking high over Greenland will likely result in a more significant period of winter weather for Europe including both cold temperatures and snowfall (see Figures 6 and 7). Though for now, no sign of the extreme cold that is predicted for the Eastern US.

The longest lasting Greenland blocks are associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). That has not happened so it would be a good guess that the high-pressure block will eventually break away from Greenland once the wave reflection ends.

Whether January becomes a continuation of December or transitions to different PV variability is an open and important question. As far as I can tell the GFS ensembles are predicting incredibly enough another stretched PV that basically looks like one long stretched PV that would keep the Eastern US in the bullseye for severe winter weather. I cannot ever remember such an event happening. Never say never, but often when the models predict a phenomenon or event that is never observed or rarely seen, it is a good rule of thumb to be skeptical.

The Canadian model is predicting another stretched PV that would focus the cold in the Western US. However as long as the Greenland block remains in place, it would likely suppress a ridge popping in the Southeastern US that is very common with these events. Often when the cold becomes focused in the Western US, storms develop lee of the Rockies and cut through the Great Lakes bringing with it very mild weather to the Eastern US. However, if the Greenland block remains in place the storms are shunted to the south and it can remain relatively cold in the Eastern US. One great example of this is January 2011. And like in that month, the Canadian is basically predicting a rare coast-to-coast cold in the US mid-January.

I did tweet on Xmas day that our very much flawed PV strength model showing the strength of the PV going over a cliff at the end of the third week of January that would suggest an SSW. Our model is on an island onto itself. I see no credible model output that suggests an SSW anytime in January (ignoring the latest GFS operational model). So, I put out our model forecast mostly as an oddity and will be interesting to see if its forecast has any merit, even partially.

I have been including the European operational PV forecast in the blogs mostly as a contrarian opinion. And the most recent forecast is no exception. The PV at the end of forecast looks fairly contracted, more akin to a strong PV and would suggest to me a fairly mild pattern not only across the US but much of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (see Figure iv). But so far, I don’t see agreement from the European ensembles. All weekend the European ensembles were in the Canadian camp of a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Western US with a clear trend of milder temperatures in the Eastern US. However, to make everything just so much more complicated the most recent run has jumped over to the GFS camp that predicts a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Eastern US all the while keeping a troposphere that wants to focus the cold in the Western US.

I have personally found the forecasting this winter to be very challenging. I have not been alone as the weather models have struggled mightily. I do rely on the weather models doing well with their PV forecasts out to two weeks but this year they have clearly struggled and over the next two weeks the models offer almost every possible solution. From a strong PV to a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Eastern US and the Western US to even a weak PV on its way to an SSW (though I didn’t show it that is what I surmise from the latest GS operational). Another complicating factor is the poor forecast of high latitude blocking. This is a systemic flaw of the models but has important implications for both PV variability and the magnitude and location of severe winter weather.

As much as I would like to sit back and watch the weather like a sports fan and take in the unexpected plot twists and suspense, that is not why I started the blog. If we were playing “Let’s Make a Deal” my heart would definitely choose door number two (the Canadian which implies cold with snow). But my head says door number three (the European troposphere from today but the polar vortex from yesterday).

So here is my educated guess at what is coming next. Our analysis does say that a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Eastern US is most often followed by a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Western US. The next chapter of PV variability after the stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Eastern US will be a stretched PV that focuses the cold in the Western US. Wave reflection typically is on the order of days and not weeks, so this should release the blocking high form its tether to Greenland and send it on its way towards Europe. So, during the third week of January this will result in a transition to milder weather in both Europe and the Eastern US with cold weather becoming more entrenched in the Western US. But it also appears Siberia will turn colder at this time, so I don’t think winter weather in the Eastern US is done just yet like last winter.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[Wthrfan]

Austin Camp Mabry just had its warmest calendar year on record, which includes 119 years of data. 2024's average temperature of 72.8° shattered the previous record of 72.3°, which was set in 2023.

The local climate has warmed by 4.6° F (2.6° C) since 1898, and that warming has been accellerating. The ten warmest years on record have all been since

=====

Austin Camp Mabry also just had its third–warmest December on record.

=====

The amount of climate warming at locations in Texas and Oklahoma since the year indicated (LOESS curve method, in °F):

.4.7°...1892...Amarillo
.4.6°...1898...Austin
.4.4°...1887...El Paso
.4.3°...1888...Corpus Christi
.4.0°...1916...Lubbock
.3.8°...1878...Brownsville
.3.7°...1931...Midland / Odessa
.3.5°...1899...Dallas / Fort Worth
.3.4°...1886...Abilene
.3.4°...1898...Houston
.3.2°...1886...San Antonio
.3.1°...1870...Galveston
.3.1°...1931...San Angelo
.2.9°...1898...Tyler
.2.7°...1891...Oklahoma City
.2.6°...1906...Tulsa
.2.3°...1890...College Station
.1.7°...1910...Beaumont / Port Arthur
.1.3°...1906...Victoria
.0.6°...1902...Waco
-1.2°...1924...Wichita Falls

It’s sad and indisputable.

[Brent]

So is snow off the table entirely for north Texas? South Texas and potentially Oklahoma to up north seem to be the primary discussion.

That makes me absolutely livid. No freaking way dude...

Oh it's very possible if you run the GFS and it runs out to January 17th? Sunday is too far north and the storm next week is too far south here

It's gotten so bad I wanna drive to Missouri this weekend honestly 3rd despicable winter in a row here so far with our climo is frankly shocking. I don't know what else to do at this point. People kept telling me last year just wait too and well nothing ever happened. I'm not gonna waste the entire winter again on a maybe

[Cpv17]

No shortage of moisture on the 6z GFS, that’s for sure.