Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

iam gonna put it POINT BLANK... expect drastic forecast changes thru the evening as both trends of nam/gfs are showing further south track, that combined with sat imagery of the upper low.. heavyer snow now likely across southwest ok, northwest tx.. with a good couple inches very close to the metroplex by tomorrow.

[iorange55]

18z gfs is showing serious cold sticking with us thru the weekend into next week...

Also is showing a nice little storm for us on Tuesday

[Texas Snowman]

iam gonna put it POINT BLANK... expect drastic forecast changes thru the evening as both trends of nam/gfs are showing further south track, that combined with sat imagery of the upper low.. heavyer snow now likely across southwest ok, northwest tx.. with a good couple inches very close to the metroplex by tomorrow.

You may be right, certainly some interesting radar presentations in SE New Mexico and SW Texas.

Even so, I would expect DFW NWS to be very cautious and to not create any snowstorm paranoia unless they are absolutely certain about snow falling on one of the heaviest travel days of the year.

While all of us weather geeks are pumped about the possibility of a Christmas Eve snow event, just the mention of any possible snow event would cause many to reconsider 12/24 travel plans.

And if such an event DIDN'T materialize and a Christmas Eve trip to grandma's house got scrubbed because of the forecast, well....

I guess what I'm saying is that DFW, which I've always thought is cautious about snow/ice forecasts anyway, will not risk crying wolf here until they are absolutely certain.

[msstateguy83]

very good point tx snowman. tuff position to be in airing on the side of caution v.s. it happening or not. i agree they likely want more time to sit, look over stuff before making any final decisions on such a busy travel weekend.

[ColdFusion]

Agreed. I am actually shocked that wfaa would go out on a limb like that so soon.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

i might ruffle some feathers again about being so blunt with my forecast but
after looking at both the nam/gfs i would say along i-20 across the metroplex
including dallas 1-2 inches by tomorrow afternoon. i would go up to 4 inches
for areas denton, plano, gainesville,sherman-denison and over towards bowie.
then nw of there towards my area iam thinking anywhere from 5-8 inches
around the wichita falls, lawton areas and a wide area of say 3-6 across
central, southwestern, southcentral ok.

I know this is asking alot, but what is the timeframe do you think the winter precip will start? I am asking because my husband has to work in Plano, which is about an 45 min to hour long drive from Bedford, which is by the airport.

[msstateguy83]

lubbock weather service has put the area as far south as childress in an upgraded winter
storm warning now saying up to 6 inches of snow.

[Ntxw]

very good point tx snowman. tuff position to be in airing on the side of caution v.s. it happening or not. i agree they likely want more time to sit, look over stuff before making any final decisions on such a busy travel weekend.

As much as I don't want to believe it, should all of this pan out this way you would be one of the first I actually noticed who went out on a limb a few days back. At that time I thought you were simply out of your mind (no offense) when you put that snowfall map with 6+ in Ok and far N TX. But should it happen (looks more and more likely) credit should be given where it is due.

[iorange55]

very good point tx snowman. tuff position to be in airing on the side of caution v.s. it happening or not. i agree they likely want more time to sit, look over stuff before making any final decisions on such a busy travel weekend.

As much as I don't want to believe it, should all of this pan out this way you would be one of the first I actually noticed who went out on a limb a few days back. At that time I thought you were simply out of your mind (no offense) when you put that snowfall map with 6+ in Ok and far N TX. But should it happen (looks more and more likely) credit should be given where it is due.

Good point I called it a little absurd but I also pointed out he could be right, my whole point was that going that on a limb that early is really risky, and could disappoint A LOT of folks. I remember 5-6 years ago when I was younger, and looked towards the weather on tv for the answers, and I would always get so excited, just to be really disappointed later.

[Texas Snowman]

The snowfall plot for North Texas thickens...will the upper low move far enough south to give us a rare, virtual once in a lifetime white Christmas?


"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING: PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAVE
BEGUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND THIS SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

[Texas Snowman]

very good point tx snowman. tuff position to be in airing on the side of caution v.s. it happening or not. i agree they likely want more time to sit, look over stuff before making any final decisions on such a busy travel weekend.

As much as I don't want to believe it, should all of this pan out this way you would be one of the first I actually noticed who went out on a limb a few days back. At that time I thought you were simply out of your mind (no offense) when you put that snowfall map with 6+ in Ok and far N TX. But should it happen (looks more and more likely) credit should be given where it is due.

Agreed, kudos Msstateguy83. Whatever happens in North Texas, looks like you had it nailed for Oklahoma!

[msstateguy83]

its all on the front ntxweatherwatcher being on the quick side i would say after 1-2 am on the later end not until mid morning tomorrow. it depends how quickly the front pokes thru the region but i will tell you all one thing we went from 55 here to 47 in just the last few mins here in the falls as we are heading towards sunset. but overall just looking at temps and frontal area its still plenty warm near dallas-fortworth around 69-70 so i would say depending on the mind of the front after 2 am most likely later then that even.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

its all on the front ntxweatherwatcher being on the quick side i would say after 1-2 am on the later end not until mid morning tomorrow. it depends how quickly the front pokes thru the region but i will tell you all one thing we went from 55 here to 47 in just the last few mins here in the falls as we are heading towards sunset. but overall just looking at temps and frontal area its still plenty warm near dallas-fortworth around 69-70 so i would say depending on the mind of the front after 2 am most likely later then that even.

Thanks msstateguy83, I just hope that his work closes for weather if this comes to fruition. His 45-1 hour commute could turn into a few hours long commute. Not to mention the hazard of driving on slick roads on the tollway!

[Texas Snowman]

its all on the front ntxweatherwatcher being on the quick side i would say after 1-2 am on the later end not until mid morning tomorrow. it depends how quickly the front pokes thru the region but i will tell you all one thing we went from 55 here to 47 in just the last few mins here in the falls as we are heading towards sunset. but overall just looking at temps and frontal area its still plenty warm near dallas-fortworth around 69-70 so i would say depending on the mind of the front after 2 am most likely later then that even.

71 in Sherman/Denison. 43 now at Will Rogers in OKC and 34 in Gage, Okla.

[Texas Snowman]

Not to interupt the snowstorm talk, but just noticed this...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR HARRISON
COUNTY...

AT 454 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLETON...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LONGVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

[Portastorm]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

[Texas Snowman]

Not to interupt the snowstorm talk, but just noticed this...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR HARRISON
COUNTY...

AT 454 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLETON...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LONGVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

Anyone know if that tornado actually went through Longview? It was located eight miles NE and moving NE, so if it has been down for any length of time, it might have done some damage there...

[iorange55]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

While your notice was warranted earlier, it's not now. No one is freaking out, and the most he said for DFW was one to two inches. Even Wfaa says one inch. I would advise her not to freak out about her husband considering it probably won't even stick on roads at first, so I'm sure his travel plans will be just fine. But looking at the latest input from the model it definitely shows precip while below freezing in DFW, so an inch is not really too crazy right now.

[Texas Snowman]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

For the record, I've never said that it was going to snow in DFW. I'm not even drinking the Bing Crosby Kool-Aid yet for Grayson County where I live, other than a dusting.

But, WFAA is the one that has gone out on a limb saying an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces in Big D and 1-3" of snow north of Denton/McKinney line. Winter Weather Advisories are just to the west and northwest of DFW by about 100 miles and winter storm warnings aren't much further away to the north. Even DFW NWS AFD mentioned that track of low will be critical on snowfall expectations.

Either way this goes, it's going to be close in my unofficial opinion.

[Portastorm]

Gang, I haven't seen one model run yet that suggests anything more than a dusting of snow (and that was "worst case") for the DFW area. I understand the excitement generated by the uncertainty of the upper low track and some of the "further south" trends but let's try and stay as realistic as possible here and not freak out folks who have travel plans or have family making travel plans for DFW.

While your notice was warranted earlier, it's not now. No one is freaking out, and the most he said for DFW was one to two inches. Even Wfaa says one inch. I would advise her not to freak out about her husband considering it probably won't even stick on roads at first, so I'm sure his travel plans will be just fine. But looking at the latest input from the model it definitely shows precip while below freezing in DFW, so an inch is not really too crazy right now.

Really? Please tell me which model is showing an inch of frozen precip in the DFW area? I may have missed it. But I have looked at the 18z GFS and NAM and didn't see that. And, for the record, WFAA's website indicates a forecast of "one inch or less on grassy surfaces." There is no mention whatsoever of road issues, etc.