Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[cycloneye]

You can check the latest about how ENSO is doing by going here

By the way,the January CPC update is up.

[Ntxw]

Thanks guys for all the graphics, links, and information on La Nina! Interesting stuff.

GFS/Canadian/Euro and ensembles all depict a big cool down after Monday's storm in the plains. How much is always in question this far out but could mean a couple of freezes for many in Texas.

[austinrunner]

12Z GFS develops one "monster high" (defined as > 1050 mb), in the Yukon around 12 January, with surface temperatures right underneath the high of a relatively mild -30 to -35F. Where does it go? Mostly north of the Canadian border as it weakens through the end of the forecast period, with a small chunk coming through Texas (briefly) around 19 January.

HM says the south overall will remain warm the rest of the winter, although there will be periods of cold behind storm systems. He thinks the battleground between warm and cold will be in the southern part of the central plains, with a ridge protecting the south from the bulk of the cold air. The good news from this is that a active storm track should develop bringing much needed rain to parts of Texas.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... -way/59894

His storm track is from the extreme northern Texas panhandle through northern Oklahoma and then east. I don't see "much needed rain" in Texas from that pattern except for Amarillo and points north.

[austinrunner]

... but it seems very telling that it's been over a week of values below 10

Why is it "telling?"

[aggiecutter]

HM says the south overall will remain warm the rest of the winter, although there will be periods of cold behind storm systems. He thinks the battleground between warm and cold will be in the southern part of the central plains, with a ridge protecting the south from the bulk of the cold air. The good news from this is that a active storm track should develop bringing much needed rain to parts of Texas.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... -way/59894

His storm track is from the extreme northern Texas panhandle through northern Oklahoma and then east. I don't see "much needed rain" in Texas from that pattern except for Amarillo and points north.

As each low pulls out of the southern plains, there will be a trailing cold front across Texas that will lift the warm moist air being drawn north from the GOM. The models certainly see it:

12z GFS 16 day rainfall forecast:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

... but it seems very telling that it's been over a week of values below 10

Why is it "telling?"

The 30 day index will catch on to the daily ones.

[Ntxw]

Maybe he means that barring a major spike, it validifies the idea that the La Nina has already peaked and that the next update in 30 days SOI values might be significantly lower than anticipated. That's what I got out of that

Edit: Euro has potential snow falling along I-20 West, points from Abilene over to Midland Monday. Natlib should keep a lookout!

[wxman57]

I think Wxman57s silence this morning is due to the fact that balmy bike weather is nearing an end!

Problem is that this better cycling weather started the day I went back to work. By the way, the 00Z Euro ensembles still have the AO and NAO positive for the next few weeks, though it forecast the AO to get near zero next week. As with the GFS, the Euro does indicate surface temps dropping well below normal in western Canada by the 15th. However, it, like the GFS, keeps those cold temps bottled up in Canada through January.

[austinrunner]

As each low pulls out of the southern plains, there will be a trailing cold front across Texas that will lift the warm moist air being drawn north from the GOM. The models certainly see it:

12z GFS 16 day rainfall forecast:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That graphic shows a grand total of 1 inch of rain where I live over the next 16 days. Far from what we need. The dailies predict around .5 inches on Monday and about .5 inches the following Monday. Otherwise, dry.

[austinrunner]

The 30 day index will catch on to the daily ones.

Maybe, maybe not. That's why the 30-day index is the relevant or "telling" one.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As each low pulls out of the southern plains, there will be a trailing cold front across Texas that will lift the warm moist air being drawn north from the GOM. The models certainly see it:

12z GFS 16 day rainfall forecast:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

That graphic shows a grand total of 1 inch of rain where I live over the next 16 days. Far from what we need. The dailies predict around .5 inches on Monday and about .5 inches the following Monday. Otherwise, dry.

Easy Negative Nancy!!! 1 inch in two days aint bad!!!

[Ntxw]

It is currently warmer in Rapid City, South Dakota than in Dallas lol. That is remarkable for January! I've heard of chinook winds being able to warm up the high plains but that is ridiculous!!!

Newton's third law of motion "For every action there is an equally opposite reaction". - Hopefully they won't pay for it in the end drastically lol

[SFS97]

Storm2k got a shout out from Robert Wilonsky at Dallas Observer http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2012/01/will_it_ever_get_really_cold_i.php

[gpsnowman]

Steve Macauley tweeted he is looking at the potential for a snow band for DFW early next week! Also, CBS 11 has a forecasted high next Thursday at 40 with a low of 35. If I knew how to post them, I would. Hey, at least it is something.

[gboudx]

Steve Macauley tweeted he is looking at the potential for a snow band for DFW early next week! Also, CBS 11 has a forecasted high next Thursday at 40 with a low of 35. If I knew how to post them, I would. Hey, at least it is something.

It's probably auto-updated, but here's the direct link to the image.

[Texas Snowman]

Bastardi tweeting again. This time it is of interest to those in the Valley:

@BigJoeBastardi: "BTW lower rio grande valley has to watch out for next cold shot later next week too. Thur or Fri nite threat there, fla on weekend."

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Any thoughts on the 18Z NAM? This run is showing snow for western Oklahoma..

[cycloneye]

Storm2k got a shout out from Robert Wilonsky at Dallas Observer http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2012/01/will_it_ever_get_really_cold_i.php

That is very great to see. It confirms that this weather community site is one of the best around the net,if not #1.

[Ntxw]

Any thoughts on the 18Z NAM? This run is showing snow for western Oklahoma..

The 18z NAM resembles what the JMA and last night's Canadian had. However, it is at the very end of it's run which isn't the best to rely on. We're just now entering it's zone so give it a few more runs to make a verdict

[weatherdude1108]

Next Wednesday night cold front is what the afternoon discussion for Central Texas says. Highs in the 50s Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 PM CST THU JAN 5 2012

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS STILL
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/CMC. WE WILL ROLL WITH THE ECMWF
TIMING. THUS EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING
ON MONDAY...ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AOA SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S.