Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Made it back to Austin. 71 and banister is shut down eastbound currently. Car is covered in ice. Everything facing forward is locked in ice. Made it safe though. Temp I had in my car was 34 here in Austin. Not sure if this is accurate though. Any word on that? Thanks for everything guys. Try again tomorrow.

[ravyrn]

00Z GFS also jumping onto the late Monday-early Tuesday southern precip event. I call it precip because the temps may be questionable.

Yeah, temps will certainly be of value. I just did 4 meteograms for some family members trying to make it home just north of Dallas. 18z GFS says there will be a period of 36-39 temps tomorrow for much of the metroplex. Hopefully some time to thaw out tomorrow afternoon, though roads would be treacherous again Monday morning as temps dip back below freezing w/ melted moisture on the roads still.

ravyn, I just don't buy the 36 to 39F temperatures in DFW. GFS (and other models) likes to erode the arctic cold dome very much too quickly in the past and it might be doing the same thing here. I expect temperatures to approach freezing, maybe get slightly above freezing, but not enough to significantly melt the ice on Sunday. We have a substantial ice pack that has not eroded due to our cold temperatures that should keep a check on the temperatures. Plus we have another arctic air intrusion coming from the north on Monday. I expect we should be very cold for much of next week.

You make a valid point. I'm very interested to see what tomorrow's highs turn up across the metroplex. All the 18z meteograms I did throughout the metroplex say temps will get 5+ degrees above freezing each afternoon for the rest of the week. Waiting on 0z data to plot new ones.

EDIT: It is worth noting the meteograms I did are for S Dal, Dallas Proper, N Dal, and Frisco. I didn't plot any FW meteograms so I can't comment on forecasted temps for westside of the metroplex in the Fort Worth and Denton areas.

[ravyrn]

GFS 0z a couple degrees colder for the metroplex. Here's meteogram for Frisco from 0z.



If anyone wants meteograms made, just request the area, and I'll post for you.

[katheria]

nevermind lol i wanna learn to make my own

[ravyrn]

In the meteograms, I'm not seeing the front that's supposed to come through on Monday. Can someone more seasoned than I please share your thoughts on this? Tuesday's lows on the meteograms are only a few degrees colder than Monday's. Does the heart of the next surge not make it as far south?

[ravyrn]

nevermind lol i wanna learn to make my own

Wxman57 has an excellent tutorial for making them. The tutorial doesn't include 850mb temps, but he shared with me the excel spreadsheet that includes them, and can e-mail you the template for it if you want. I think I also have the NAM template for it as well, though I haven't messed with it yet, since it's the NAM and all

[TrekkerCC]

nevermind lol i wanna learn to make my own

Wxman57 has an excellent tutorial for making them. The tutorial doesn't include 850mb temps, but he shared with me the excel spreadsheet that includes them, and can e-mail you the template for it if you want. I think I also have the NAM template for it as well, though I haven't messed with it yet, since it's the NAM and all

NAM might actually be more accurate in these cases - higher resolution model, so NAM will actually handle these shallow arctic air masses better. NAM, for instance, picked up the faster frontal movement (through it was still off from reality).

[JDawg512]

Made it back to Austin. 71 and banister is shut down eastbound currently. Car is covered in ice. Everything facing forward is locked in ice. Made it safe though. Temp I had in my car was 34 here in Austin. Not sure if this is accurate though. Any word on that? Thanks for everything guys. Try again tomorrow.

I live a block over from Banister just a couple of blocks south of 290/71. There was a fatality accident, still fuzzy on the details but it's not good.

[somethingfunny]

What happened to the McFarland Signature? Suddenly we're expecting the Monday cold front to do no more than stall the temperature rebound, before temperatures continue to rise through the week?

[somethingfunny]

Whoa, I just got an unexpected dusting of snow.

[vbhoutex]

Update from Jeff:
NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 600am Sunday morning for the following counties:

 

Brazos, Grimes, Austin, Washington, Colorado, and Burleson

 

Temperatures this evening have cooled below freezing and light rain/drizzle is being reported across these areas resulting in light freezing rain and drizzle. College Station has reported light freezing rain and 30 degrees in the last hour and law enforcement has indicated a thin layer of ice on bridges along I-10 west of Columbus. Even have had ice resulting accidents just north of Victoria this evening. The temperatures having only reached 32-34 degrees over these counties this afternoon, pavement has cooled to near freezing and ice formation on bridges and overpasses will be possible tonight. Expect ice accumulations to be less than .05 of an inch and more likely in the trace to .01 of an inch range, but even a very thin layer of ice on a bridge can be extremely dangerous especially when the bridge looks dry. Residents should exercise extreme caution on any bridges and overpasses in the advisory area tonight into early Sunday morning.

Temperatures in Harris County remain in the 34-37 range and will only cool a couple of degrees tonight. Do not expect any ice formation in Harris County.

Temperatures will warm above freezing after sunrise on Sunday with any ice accumulation quickly melting.

I was watching this last night into the early am. When I headed to bed we had a steady mist and 35.1f at my place. Many accidents were being reported to our W and NW along with road closures. When I got up this morning it was 37.3f with no precip falling so we apparently had an early "warm up". There is light rain falling in some areas of the metro, but not at my house on the West side. Will we get above 40f today? They say yes. May have to peel off a layer if it gets too "hot". LOL!!

[gpsnowman]

A swing and a miss from some of the local DFW mets regarding the overnight low temps this morning. A couple called for a low near twenty and it actually warmed a couple degrees. Currently 28 now. I took a step out this morning and the with the light mist and fog it is quite a sight. No wind at all. Just frozen and gray. No vehicular traffic makes it very quiet out. I agree with Somethingfunny. What McFarland Signature? I guess I don't understand what exactly that is. My understanding is sharp and prolonged cold that would start Monday. It is going to be cold but only to prevent a quick warm up. Am I missing something?

[Big O]

0z European ensemble mean and control runs in 10-15 day period show reestablishment of ridging on west coast and into Alaska, and deep trough across central and eastern US. Cross-polar flow present, and if they verify, it is possible that renewed and possibly colder air (as we are deeper into fall/winter) would invade the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. There are also some indications that the southern stream/jet will get going, and if so, there could be P-type issues for portions of the south, including, but not limited to, Texas.

_________________
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[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Just how many hours below freezing could we be seeing here in North Texas?
I've been hearing about 1983 and 1989 but those outbreaks were extreme.

That's probably too extreme for this first outbreak of cold. Something more like Christmas week last year or maybe a Feb 2011 (if there is snow cover) if things line up right. Beyond that is still to be determined.

If you can recall, December 1989 had an outbreak of cold before the big one about the first two weeks, it did not all come at once. In it's own right that was a strong cold snap on it's own. The coming cold is comparable to that first one.

I'm sure Portastorm knows exactly what I'm talking about . I'm sure the fine mets down in PWC hq is frantically making plans to head out into the north pacific ocean!

[Ntxw]

Getting some flurry action here, saw when I was trying to scrape ice off the windshield

[gboudx]

The kids are already asking about school tomorrow. I can only speak for my area in Rockwall but even though the roads are passable, I wouldn't say they're completely safe. Unless there's a big thaw today with little refreeze tonight, I think they're looking at another makeup day.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, so far this morning in Grayson County, I have a DPS trooper friend saying its as bad or worse than yesterday; a friend who wrecked his truck; another friend who says w/out 4WD you will be in a ditch; and pictures of multiple vehicles off the road on 75.

[Portastorm]

Well, so far this morning in Grayson County, I have a DPS trooper friend saying its as bad or worse than yesterday; a friend who wrecked his truck; another friend who says w/out 4WD you will be in a ditch; and pictures of multiple vehicles off the road on 75.

Snowman, between your great local reporting and things I have seen on Twitter and a few other forums ... it seems like Grayson County is one of the worst hit areas from this storm. I feel for y'all. Must seem like you're literally encased in ice.

[katheria]

well its officially above freezing at the school next door.
we are at a wonderful 32.7 °F.....

i may venture out this afternoon....maybe

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, a couple of fun weather factoids from the backyard of the PWC:

* Yesterday's max temp of 31 degrees was the earliest (season wise) max temp below freezing in recorded history for KATT (Austin-Camp Mabry) and KAUS (Bergstrom airport)

* Both KAUS and KATT were at or below freezing for 38 consecutive hours (I can tell you that NO computer model or meteogram showed that happening!)

And, it looks like the Austin area may get a repeat of what we experienced last night coming Monday night/Tuesday morning:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

TXZ171>173-188>194-205>209-220>225-090000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
BASTROP-LEE-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...
GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
1047 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

LATE TONIGHT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL BRING PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO ELMENDORF TO BIG
WELLS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA SO
ICING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOW TO BOERNE TO DIME BOX. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA
AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. CURRENTLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA TO HAVE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES
AND FLYOVERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.