Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

Cooling off VERY quickly tonight...already down to 37F. By the way, we got down to 27F this morning...coldest night in over three, four weeks.

Anthony

[andycottle]

Anthony...I to had a low of 27 here this morning in Woodinville. And like you, it`s also been roughly 3 weeks since we had a temp of 30 degrees or colder for a morning low.

Currently clear skies with a temp of 41, DP 32, humidity 70% and baro 30.06 and steady as of 5:40pm. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Just to keep me honest... actuals in red.

TT's forecast (Sea-Tac):

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-42 Hi-51 Lo-39 Partly Cloudy
Friday - Rain developing Hi-47 Lo-40 Hi-50 Lo-41 Showers/Sun Breaks
Saturday - Showers Hi-44 Lo-37 Hi-44 Lo-35 Cloudy
Sunday - Showers Hi-42 Lo-35 Hi-43 Lo-37 Showers
Monday - Showers / Sun Breaks Hi-42 Lo-30 Hi-46 Lo-35 Partly Cloudy
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-48 Lo-32 Hi-48 Lo-31 Sunny
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy Hi-50 Low-36
Thursday - Partly Cloudy Hi-54 Lo-38
Friday - Mostly Sunny Hi-59 Lo-40



Another day updated... not bad hey. That forecast was made LAST week

[R-Dub]

Tonight should be a degree or two colder, I am thinking 25 for my low tonight/tomarrow morning.

2/8/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:12:47 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 33.4
Humidity (%) 93.2
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.26
Dew Point: 31.6 ºF

Looks like Double T was right on once again, though (and I know everyone will think I am nuts for still believing this) I still think we will have a shot of cold sometime next week. There will be cold air lurking just to our north, so anything can happen! We are still a week out, so the models can just as easily change in our favor.

I know I am nuts

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... I guess anything is possible. But its a really long shot.

The model of choice... the ECMWF... in its latest run does not have the cold air to our north but rather to our east next week. As in Minnesota. That is 1,600 miles away AND downwind.

[img]http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_168.gif [/img]

[andycottle]

I will go one degree colder than Randy and say my over night low will be 24, though that might be hard to come by if we some high cloudyness at times tonight.. -- Andy

PS: Viewing the daily PNA and NAO outlook tonight....looks like the PNA takes a slight dip to -2 by middle of the month, while the NAO goes to a positive +3 or so by that time frame.

BTW...we have clear skies with temp of 35 and DP 34 with baro 30.09 and steady as of 7:55pm.

[TT-SEA]

I might just be a little warm on my predicted low tonight.

Last week... I expected more high clouds by tonight. So my forecast of 36 degrees at Sea-Tac is probably 4 or 5 degrees too warm.

But I should be pretty close with 50 degrees tomorrow.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You were mostly right about everything, but I was right when I said there would be lows in the low to mid 20s. Last night Maple Falls got down to 20, Arlington 23, Covington, 25, McChord AFB 25. I DISTINCTLY remember you said the upper 20s would be the coldest.

I don't think I ever saw you post your low temp last night.

By the way...the dew point was 1 degree lower this evening than yesterday, so the lows should be a little bit lower in some spots.

[R-Dub]

I am so tired tonight, I am going to crash!
Have a great night everyone!!

2/8/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:20:13 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 33.1
Humidity (%) 92.4
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.25
Dew Point: 32.7 ºF

[W13]

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Congrats Brian and all who are mantaining this thread running.The storm2k stats show that this thread ranks #5 as one of the most active topics and #5 as one of the most viewed.Keep it going guys.

Wow, it sure is good to hear that we are one of the most successful threads on Storm2K!

[W13]

Currently already down to 33 F as of 8:26 PM

My prediction tonight is that the temperature for my area will be a degree or two colder than last night (we got down to 24 F), so around 21-24 F is my guess for tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... radiational cooling is really tough to predict. I have been almost perfect for my temperatures at Sea-Tac. But tomorrow morning I will be a tad high.

I was out early this morning for work driving from North Bend to Kirkland and then across the 520 bridge to downtown and then finally to Renton. You could tell most areas in the metro area were slightly above freezing and frost was very localized.

You are highlighting cold spots outside of the Seattle area. Maple Falls is not even close to being an area I covered. That is east of Bellingham!!! The stations in the metro area like Sea-Tac, Bellevue, and Sandpoint were in the low 30's.

My low was 28.8 degrees here. Not being in a valley keeps us warmer in a situation like this than places like Covington.

[andycottle]

Tim...the complete oppisite(sorry for bad spelling ) is true for me here in Woodinville. Down in the Woodinville valley, temp is usually 5 to 7 degrees warmer than up at the top of Hollywood Hill area....which is where I`m at. -- Andy

[W13]

Now down to 30 F as of 8:45 PM

[W13]

Tim...the complete oppisite(sorry for bad spelling ) is true for me here in Woodinville. Down in the Woodinville valley, temp is usually 5 to 7 degrees warmer than up at the top of Hollywood Hill area....which is where I`m at. -- Andy

The exact same thing happens with the Kent Valley. I live on the east Hill of Kent and we are ALWAYS are 5 degrees+ colder than the Kent Valley.

[snow_wizzard]

Very interesting...the new 0Z is back to showing some cold outflow from BC. Needless to say, with the extreme uncertainty the models are displaying on this, it is too early to jump to any conclusions. We are talking less than 5 days out, however, so it's starting to look more likely. The key is in the surface pressure maps on this.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_144m.htm

This shows Fraser outflow on Monday no matter how you slice it. Thickness 534, strong NE wind gradient. TT could be in trouble this time.

[W13]

Very interesting...the new 0Z is back to showing some cold outflow from BC. Needless to say, with the extreme uncertainty the models are displaying on this, it is too early to jump to any conclusions. We are talking less than 5 days out, however, so it's starting to look more likely. The key is in the surface pressure maps on this.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_144m.htm

This shows Fraser outflow on Monday no matter how you slice it. Thickness 534, strong NE wind gradient. TT could be in trouble this time.

Yes, just what I was hoping for! Also, between the 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z runs of the GFS Model, the 0z has the most tendency to be the most correct out of all four of those runs.

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

I wouldn't jump the gun just yet. Models have shown NO run-to-run consistency for many days now. This is the first run to show arctic air back over Western Washington...1 of 6. Don't get your hopes up too high. They can easily be squashed.

Anthony

A cold 31F with no wind.

[andycottle]

34 degrees here as of 9:07pm with DP also at 34. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Guys... here we go again.

The same GFS shows 850mb temps here on Monday around -3C and at the same time arctic air is plunging into the Midwest. This is on the GFS which is too cold anyways.

If that low in the Pacific Ocean stays farther west then it will not be as warm... maybe only around 50 degrees.

This is a tougher scenario... because that low is cut off from the jet stream. Nonetheless... we are NOT talking about a big storm with lowland snow or very cold weather.

We are splitting hairs.

Either its sunny and 50 degrees with slightly chilly mornings (localized frost) or cloudy and 55 degrees with lows in the 40's (assuming the low gets closer and southerly flow takes over).