Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Bullseye is a bit north this run

[Ntxw]

Euro looks like another pretty good run. It would be hard for the NWS to disregard it.

Still room for more qpf and coverage as the Euro is amped.

[Ntxw]

This will be something to watch I'd like to emphasize again. If the cold beats the surging moisture (per Euro) an event like this with a good STJ can have very high ceilings despite seemingly harmless. It's happened before, instead of light rain or sleet the initial band itself dumps 2-3" of snow before the main system even arrives. The band the Euro shows occurs from Morning of the 2nd to midday.

The past several days have trended more towards a sig event.

One thing I am starting to see is if the storm may create more overrunning than anticipated well ahead of its passage while we have below freezing surface temperatures.

The simulated IR band of the Euro shows a STJ connection going on ahead of the system. The NAM will likely show some crazy totals soon I think since it is sensitive to these mesoscale and pooling moisture sources.

[Brent]

ice storm by early afternoon Wednesday in DFW and down close to the 35 corridor towards Austin on the 6z NAM only goes out to 18z Wednesday

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS is alone in its thought on the dominant northern stream. Every other global model I checked (8 or so of them) have a SW closed low dominating things. As others have noted the STJ could well play a big role in supporting significant precip early on Wed. The NAM is really showing this. Temps are likely to trend colder for the daytime on Wed. I doubt areas west of I-35 or north of I-20 get above freezing on Wed. I hope that there is not much of a warm nose or we coups have significant icing for some before the snow. The NAM is on the warm side of guidance right now.
The support for NE Texas getting much snow is now lost sadly as all models track the upper low from W TX into OK vs earlier runs tracking along I-20. With first trends NE TX is only in line for backside flurries as we will be ok the SW flank of the upper low late Wed. For my sake I am hoping that the storm tracks south of El Paso and ejects a bit more E vs NE. This would put us on the W flank late Wed which is where the real snow is gonna fall.

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS through Tue evening is trending towards a stronger SW low. But of course it ends up shearing it out. It does put some snow down though.

[Ralph's Weather]

I really should be asleep, but something ascot this storm seems special so I can't sleep. It looks to me that a track just a bit further south even just 100 miles south Tues night when it is along the NM/Mex border would invoke analogs to 2/11/2010. Very minor shifts among the various features could shift this from a nothing event to a widespread heavy snow event.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dallas forecast update has been updated to include 30% chance rain/freezing rain on Tuesday night, wintry mix on Wednesday, and snow Wednesday night. Not surprising since the euro, gfs, fv3, nam, and cmc all show at least light accumulations in Dfw.

Trends continue in our favor...

[gpsnowman]

Before we get any frozen fun next week, a cold rainy Sunday is on tap. Good day to stay indoors and watch some NFL and eat. Can't wait to see some good trends today.

[Ntxw]

Looks like GFS and FV3 folded at least based on 6z. All hail king Euro.

[weatherdude1108]

With models trending colder and wetter for the middle of the week parts of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau have a chance for freezing rain early Wednesday morning, through much of the day, and into the evening hours. While it is too soon to determine the impacts from this potential freezing rain, continue to monitor the forecast over the next several days.

[orangeblood]

Looks like GFS and FV3 folded at least based on 6z. All hail king Euro.

Yep, the gap between King Euro and the rest hasn’t changed much in years...once in a blue moon the GFS will get lucky but overall seems inferior and sometimes embarrassingly so!

[DFWLady]

ice storm by early afternoon Wednesday in DFW and down close to the 35 corridor towards Austin on the 6z NAM only goes out to 18z Wednesday



http://i64.tinypic.com/9strgk.png

Please let this verify!!!! DFW people need this lol! Our New Year's wishes will come true! I know DFWers will be happier than kids on Christmas! If this moves north I am packing up the car and going to find this white stuff everyone keeps talking about! Fingers crossed DFWers! Could it FINALLY be our turn?!!!!

As for today, woke up to a crisp 37 outside with rain in the forecast. I'll be staying inside under my blanket watching football all day! Go Cowboys! Happy Sunday everyone!

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM continues trend towards EURO with deeper cut-off and after looking over SREF temp projections, this could become quite an ugly ice storm for some...the Globals and even the NAM don’t seem cold enough

[Ntxw]

If this trend continues we'll probably see most of North Texas and counties West of I-35 in the hill country under winter storm watches pretty soon I would think.

[Jarodm12]

If this trend continues we'll probably see most of North Texas and counties West of I-35 in the hill country under winter storm watches pretty soon I would think.

Why wouldn't we see all of north Texas and southern Oklahoma under WSW?

[Ntxw]

If this trend continues we'll probably see most of North Texas and counties West of I-35 in the hill country under winter storm watches pretty soon I would think.

Why wouldn't we see all of north Texas and southern Oklahoma under WSW?

I took a guess based on model placement of best qpf and timing since it will start in those areas first. Adjacent Oklahoma too and Arkansas, only qpf there is not certain yet.

[bubba hotep]

For the Wednesday system, one of the things we need to watch is the Northern Steam wave. It was much stronger on the 00z Euro and eventually overruns the system coming out of New Mexico. On the 12z today, it is barely there and stays a lot farther north allowing our system to come out of New Mexico with more amplitude.

00z Euro with strong Northern Stream wave.

https://i.ibb.co/m6HdFM9/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2018122800-108-5436-457.png

12z Euro with just a ripple in the Northern Stream

https://i.ibb.co/9vk5z4L/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2018122812-96-5436-457.png

It's impressive how consistent the Euro has been since it dropped the dominate Northern Stream feature. The GFS and FV3 are still playing catch up trying to trend towards the Euro but they are still showing more Northern Stream interference.

[bubba hotep]

[Portastorm]

Silly NAM!