Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the trends south and west may have begun. I hope everyone is ready for this. That cold is going to come fast and hard and even if you don't see a big snow storm I think Bernie is on to something with widespread 1-2" with the cold front.

[Iceresistance]

Does anyone have the Kuchera Ratio for the 12z ICON run?

[bubba hotep]

Yep, this was a huge 12hr OP run shift that is a significant outlier when compared to the 00z/06z Super ensemble suite.

GFS holds steady through day 5 with only minor changes. So 12z so far, ICON big shift, GFS meh.

That was definitely a shift west with the GFS in terms of a colder solution on the 12z run but again need to see if these are trends and not just snapshot going forward.

I was comparing 00z vs 12z through 120 hours. So, it was just minor shifting around. There were some bigger changes later in the run, so an overall positive trend vs. 00z.

[WinterMax]

A shift west would be helpful, because I was just having this gut feeling that the majority of arctic air would keep sliding east and basically in a few days Texas and Louisiana would just have a very light glancing blow. That was just a gut feeling looking at the recent GFS runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

I know I said this a couple times over in the tropics forums, but I’ve liked the icon’s track record over the last couple of years. I’m also pretty sure it handled last year’s ntx winter storm the best of any of the globals, and the Jan 2021 storm.

I wouldn’t put all my eggs its basket, but I have been pretty eagerly waiting for it to get within range.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm expecting the Euro to also shift west with its 12z run. Looks like after trending warmer the past few runs of the guidance, the expected colder trend has returned now.

[bubba hotep]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

That's a pretty big 24hr shift on the CMC

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Late Next Week:
Arrival of an arctic air mass is still looking likely late next week, but the intensity of this air mass remains in question. Recent model trends have shown more of a tendency to move the core of this air mass SE/ESE toward the Midwest and Great Lakes with more a glancing blow of the cold air across TX. It would still be cold, but nothing brutal or extreme if this verified. Global models tend to handle arctic air masses poorly especially in the plains, so not a lot of confidence on how cold it could get late next week in the southern plains and Texas.

For now will maintain freezes both the 24th and 25th for much of the area with lows in the 20’s, but this could trend up or down in the coming days. Highs likely around 40 both days with strong old air advection in place. Recent GFS runs show some moisture possible in the cold air next weekend, but other guidance is dry so will lean in that direction and keep snow/ice off the table for now unless there becomes support from other guidance and at least some run to run consistency with the GFS which has been throwing out widely varying solutions.

[Cpv17]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

That's a pretty big 24hr shift on the CMC

https://i.ibb.co/tQDXq4K/CMC12z1216.gif

Geez, you’re not lying.

[Portastorm]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

I know I said this a couple times over in the tropics forums, but I’ve liked the icon’s track record over the last couple of years. I’m also pretty sure it handled last year’s ntx winter storm the best of any of the globals, and the Jan 2021 storm.

I wouldn’t put all my eggs its basket, but I have been pretty eagerly waiting for it to get within range.

Cheezy, I'm with you on this. I used to laugh off the ICON. Then there's this private sector meteorologist here in Austin who was touting it (prior to the Feb 2021 Winter Apocalypse) and I admit I was giving him a hard time about it. Well, the ICON did really well with that period so I no longer dismiss it.

[txtwister78]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

That's a pretty big 24hr shift on the CMC

https://i.ibb.co/tQDXq4K/CMC12z1216.gif

Windshield wiper effect maximus but as we get closer and closer (I was thinking into the weekend last night) models should begin to lock in. Looks like the trend west with that trough and thus much colder air for our region has begun.

[txtwister78]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

I know I said this a couple times over in the tropics forums, but I’ve liked the icon’s track record over the last couple of years. I’m also pretty sure it handled last year’s ntx winter storm the best of any of the globals, and the Jan 2021 storm.

I wouldn’t put all my eggs its basket, but I have been pretty eagerly waiting for it to get within range.

Cheezy, I'm with you on this. I used to laugh off the ICON. Then there's this private sector meteorologist here in Austin who was touting it (prior to the Feb 2021 Winter Apocalypse) and I admit I was giving him a hard time about it. Well, the ICON did really well with that period so I no longer dismiss it.

It really did. It was one of the first I do believe to not only show the colder solution (and never really wavered) but also did fairly well picking up the winter precip signal in the medium range (which at the time I was shocked at bc it typically has a dry bias with it at that range).

[GeauxTigers]

Hey everyone! I'm going to be in Rogers, AR next week for Christmas with family. Will there be any winter excitement up in Northwest AR while I'm there?

[rwfromkansas]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

That's a pretty big 24hr shift on the CMC

https://i.ibb.co/tQDXq4K/CMC12z1216.gif

Wow. That is insane!

And it's just one model, but that the trend is so consistently west is intriguing.

[Iceresistance]

I may have asked this before, but does anyone have the Kuchera Ratio Snowfall for the 12z ICON model? I'm very curious about the snowfall ratio with snow in Below Zero Temperatures.

[orangeblood]

Coming into Hi Res range now...Extremely Cold Temps and HP are building just as advertised by the Globals into NW Canada. With the Negative EPO and flow directly out of the Arctic, we know this extremely cold/dense air is coming south. Once it dislodges from NW Canada, it almost always takes the path of least resistance which is directly down the Central Plains to GOM. Upper level forecasts should follow suit, once it pin points where this cold/dense air is headed.

[EnnisTx]

Seriously caught me off guard. Light sleet/graupel in Dallas.

[TheProfessor]

GFS is still draining that cold to the east too quickly, but definitely a step in the right direction. The question is how far west could this go? If we get a sharp cutter from Waco to Fayetteville, to Des Moines followed by a secondary storm in south Texas then everyone wins. Doubt we get that lucky though lol

[Ntxw]

Coming into Hi Res range now...Temps and HP are building just as advertised by the Globals into NW Canada. With the Negative EPO and flow directly out of the Arctic, we know this extremely cold/dense air is coming south. Once it dislodges from NW Canada, it almost always takes the path of least resistance which is directly down the Central Plains to GOM. Upper level forecasts should follow suit, once it pin points where this cold/dense air is headed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/alaska/t2m_f/1671192000/1671494400-pXntNPB5kfA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/alaska/mslp/1671192000/1671494400-gmv2DfpPro4.png

Surface analysis shows the big HP has crossed over from Siberia. Should strengthen as the -EPO goes poleward.

[EnnisTx]

Seriously caught me off guard. Light sleet/graupel in Dallas.