Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

I have no idea where this even came from, lol. Wasn't the timeframe I was watching.

Tuesday Night...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain or snow. Lows in the mid 30s.

Wednesday...Cooler...cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain or snow in the morning. Highs in the mid 40s.

[timNms]

From NWS Jackson, MS discussion 2/20/2010

SREF IS INDICATING INCREASING PROBS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENT...AS COLD AIR AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN TROUGH IS POOLED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...AREA OF
POTENTIAL SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING UPWARDS
WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. /COHEN/

[Brent]

Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

[LaBreeze]

:eek: Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

Why forget Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Brent]

:eek: Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

Why forget Tuesday/Wednesday?

Because if that verifies it'll pale in comparison.

I'm not impressed with Tuesday/Wednesday at all east of TX, maybe flurries, but the better moisture is over the Gulf.

[LaBreeze]

:eek: Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

Why forget Tuesday/Wednesday?

Because if that verifies it'll pale in comparison.

I'm not impressed with Tuesday/Wednesday at all east of TX, maybe flurries, but the better moisture is over the Gulf.

Gotcha.

[Dean4Storms]

:eek: Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

It really wraps this one up as well. Could have shades of Superstorm 93!!

[Brent]

:eek: Forget Tuesday/Wednesday, holy crap!

It really wraps this one up as well. Could have shades of Superstorm 93!!

A TV station met here in Alabama actually posted that on his Facebook!

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

Might see some light snow on the coast next weekend...Does not seem to be anything major however...

[Ivanhater]

And again next Tuesday

[Ivanhater]

Saturday and next Tuesday still look interesting...

Saturday





Next Tuesday

[Brent]

Birmingham:

THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DIFFERENT
CREATURE. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE GULF LOW
GETTING CRANKED UP...AND IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WE WOULD (ASSUMING IT
IS CORRECT) BE VERY CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE DURING A
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL QPF EVENT. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR...
JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. BUT THIS IS STILL 7/8 DAYS AWAY. WE SHALL
SEE HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE.

[attallaman]

:ggreen:

Birmingham:

THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DIFFERENT
CREATURE. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE GULF LOW
GETTING CRANKED UP...AND IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WE WOULD (ASSUMING IT
IS CORRECT) BE VERY CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE DURING A
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL QPF EVENT. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR...
JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. BUT THIS IS STILL 7/8 DAYS AWAY. WE SHALL
SEE HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE.

What does that mean for the chance of snow here on my coast?

[MGC]

Getting a bit late in the season for snow down here attallaman...though I do recall flurries in late March back in the early 80's. Maybe when the eggnog is back in season......MGC

[Stormcenter]

Below is this afternoon's (2/22) NWS Long Term discussion out of New Orleans, LA.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOME
VERY WEAK RIDGING TO TAKE HOLD ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL OVERRIDE A MORE STABLE LAYER AT THE
SURFACE. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS
WARMER AIR OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAST MOVING...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS...STRONG FORCING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD RACE TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE PERIOD. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTRY WEATHER EXISTS HEADING INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOW...A REGION OF ENHANCED
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DECENT DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN ISSUE IS
TEMPERATURES...AS LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A VERY
STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH PULLS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. A BROAD REGION OF ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOME ISENTROPICALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF AND AMPLE LIFT IN
PLACE...ANOTHER STRONG GULF LOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD
BE IN THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.&&

Getting a bit late in the season for snow down here attallaman...though I do recall flurries in late March back in the early 80's. Maybe when the eggnog is back in season......MGC

[Brent]

:ggreen:

Birmingham:

THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DIFFERENT
CREATURE. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE GULF LOW
GETTING CRANKED UP...AND IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WE WOULD (ASSUMING IT
IS CORRECT) BE VERY CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE DURING A
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL QPF EVENT. THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR...
JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. BUT THIS IS STILL 7/8 DAYS AWAY. WE SHALL
SEE HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE.

What does that mean for the chance of snow here on my coast?

Too early to tell, nothing can be completely ruled out. The blizzard of 93 did cause accumulating snow in Mobile and Pensacola in Mid-March, but that was a very powerful record-breaking storm. IMO there will be snow somewhere in the south, it might be well inland, but it's just too soon to tell.

[Ntxw]

Euro has been pretty consistent wrapping up a storm along the south for several days now. Anyone north and west of the low has a very good chance of seeing snow. Subject to change of course especially the finer details!

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY SIMILAR WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER GULF LOW ON MONDAY. FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES INDICATE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC
WITH EITHER SYSTEM AND CHANGES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH LOW
WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER WE SEE ALL RAIN OR SOME
MIXED PRECIP. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN THE ALL LIQUID PRECIP
FORECAST FROM THE MID SHIFT AND CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY WATCH FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. /13

[Brent]

Hmmmm...