Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

i also am studying meteorology thru an accredited university for the record, so i would not call my forecast that of just someone out of the blue that does not have a clue.

[Texas Snowman]

http://www.kltv.com/global/story.asp?s=11723140

Pics of the Longview tornado...

[gofrogs]

how is the low behaving right know and is it moving south still the more south the better as we all know and next week around tues day wendsday and thursday looks for interesting for texas i e my part in the dfw area fort worth to be exaxt.

[msstateguy83]

[msstateguy83]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 232334 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
PROBLEMATIC TAF FORECAST FOR THE AREA AIRPORTS. COLD FRONT
STRETCHES ALONG A SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO WICHITA FALLS TO MIDLAND
LINE. THE COLD FRONT HAS HAD A SLOW PUSH AS A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE DFW METRO AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SLOWLY
APPROACHING. THINKING THE NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE IT AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH A FEW HOURS LATER. THE FRONT WILL MAKE INTO
WACO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AND FEEL THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL JUST CARRY A CB
GROUP FOR DFW AND VCTS FOR WACO. RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AS BEST LIFT ARRIVES TO THE REGION...BUT THINKING
THE WINDOW FOR THUNDER WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE VERY STRONG FROM THE WNW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
OVER 40 KNOTS. THIS WNW COMPONENT WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE N-S
RUNWAYS AND HOLIDAY TRAVEL TOMORROW.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 IN A REGION OF ASCENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND INTO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW AROUND 9 AM. WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL
AND MAY INCLUDE SNOW IN THE METRO TAFS IN THE 9PM UPDATE.

85/NH

[iorange55]

and the plot thickens, huh?. It'll be interesting. Time to take a break from the computer for awhile will check back later tonight when the 00z comes out.

[ColdFusion]

WFAA goes further out on the limb.....

"We have everything in our forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours," said News 8 Chief Meteorologist Pete Delkus.

"Things are going to change by midnight tonight," Delkus said. "I expect that cold front — a very powerful system — to move in. That will bring with it showers, even some thunderstorms, some straight-line wind damage a possibility late this evening into the early overnight."

We'll see rain by midnight, but by 6 a.m. Thursday, the precipitation will begin to change to snow and even sleet, a wintry mix.

"We are indeed looking at snow in our forecast at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning," Delkus said. "By noon tomorrow, all snow across the area."

Dallas and Fort Worth residents could see up to an inch of snow on Christmas Eve, with up to two inches in Collin and Denton counties.

[Ntxw]

Question, IF any snow does fall for the metroplex, what are the odds it will stick around for Christmas morning?

[msstateguy83]

that really all depends on temps but it could stick around depending on how much really falls.
i would have higher levels of confidence up to the north and west but we will see, the next
few hours of watching sat imagery of the upper low, temps will say everything. ou short term
forecast mentions rain starting by around 9 pm in the western zones and now looks like all snow
in the ou zone areas by midnight.

[msstateguy83]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-240300-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
655 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT... JUST EAST OF ATOKA AND DURANT EARLY THIS EVENING...
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OUT OF ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES BY 9 PM. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING NEAR THE FRONT... BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

MOST OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID EVENING. RADAR INDICATES RAIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SPREADING SLOWLY EAST... AHEAD
OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING IN WEST TEXAS... AND IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN
CHANGING TO SNOW IN THAT AREA BY MID EVENING. AS THE PRECIPITATION
SPREADS EAST... RAIN MAY BEGIN IN PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING... MOST
LIKELY AFTER 9 PM. WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL... ANY RAIN
IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. BUT UNTIL 9
PM... TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED

[gboudx]

http://www.kltv.com/global/story.asp?s=11723140

Pics of the Longview tornado...

Wholly smokes. We just drove through East Texas(including Longview) on I-20 this afternoon on our way back to Rockwall. Good thing we left from Nawlins as early as I wanted to miss that weather. *patsselfonback*

[natlib]

Good ole Texas weather. It was 74 and sunny in San Angelo at 5pm. We are now at 50 with rain and 40 mph wind. After midnight we have a chance of light sleet and snow.

[Ntxw]

0z Nam so far seems to shift the low yet further south and east.

Axis of heavier snowfall seems to shift further south to along the red river up to OKC. I wouldn't be surprised (based on this run) that Dfw sees more than a dusting. Perhaps possibly flurries down to Waco?

[cwp419]

DFW is going to see accumulating snow...this happens every time with forecasters in the South who, for the most part, don't put snow in the forecast until the very last second...even when the writing is all over the wall(like it is this time). This happened almost everytime it snowed when I was in North Texas. I wish they would stop this idiocy

[Ntxw]

DFW is going to see accumulating snow...this happens every time with forecasters in the South who, for the most part, don't put snow in the forecast until the very last second...even when the writing is all over the wall(like it is this time). This happened almost everytime it snowed when I was in North Texas. I wish they would stop this idiocy

Definitely looking more and more likely.

[iorange55]

I'm going to remain calm, but the 00z nam does excite me

18 hrs




24 hrs

[Portastorm]

0z Nam so far seems to shift the low yet further south and east.

Axis of heavier snowfall seems to shift further south to along the red river up to OKC. I wouldn't be surprised (based on this run) that Dfw sees more than a dusting. Perhaps possibly flurries down to Waco?

For the most part I agree with you ... the 0z NAM has more precip over the DFW area when 850mb temps would be conducive for snow/sleet. Definitely the kind of trend you want to see. I don't think the precip is showing that far south though (for Waco). Maybe a few flurries for the outlet malls in Hillsboro.

[Ntxw]

I'm going to remain calm, but the 00z nam does excite me

18 hrs




24 hrs

Not to mention the winds, lets see how this pans out.

Edit: Think it's about time to get the bread and milk?
Edit 2: For what it's worth, the CMC has been showing this for the past day or so and has the bulk of precip even further south.

[TrekkerCC]

While this is not a forecast and just a interpretation of the models, I rather put this in anyway for safety sake:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Column is totally frozen to the surface in the afternoon (around 21z or 3pm), according to NAM 00z model soundings, at Dallas Love Field. A change-over to snow earlier is possible if the NAM and possibly the GFS are too warm with their atmospheric temperature projections. Of course, the reverse is true, if the models are too optimistic with their forecasts of the upper-atmosphere, then a change-over to snow might not occur and we might just end up with a cold rain.

[Ntxw]

The dynamics of this storm is just amazing. How many times can you say Okc (and potientially Dallas) sees snow meanwhile Chicago is getting freezing rain and sleet?

Edit: Fyi, Lubbock is now reporting 34 degrees F with light snow\fog mist