Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

850 is already down to where the models say it will be.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=15#

[ThunderSleetDreams]

For those along and east of 35, look at the upstream Temps across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas...not nearly as much of a push as out in west Texas. Core of the cold will be out west, just don't think the cold advection is strong enough for a surprise this time around!!!

And the models continue to show this. Hate to say it but besides the early run mythical snow storms they have shown in the long range, the gfs especially, has been persistent in showing that happening and continues to do so. Looks like a pretty good January thaw for much of the southern half country is right around the corner and have no reason to believe otherwise.

January Thaw? Lol, no, the pattern keeps reloading through mid month.

[Lagreeneyes03]

For those along and east of 35, look at the upstream Temps across Oklahoma and eastern Kansas...not nearly as much of a push as out in west Texas. Core of the cold will be out west, just don't think the cold advection is strong enough for a surprise this time around!!!

And the models continue to show this. Hate to say it but besides the early run mythical snow storms they have shown in the long range, the gfs especially, has been persistent in showing that happening and continues to do so. Looks like a pretty good January thaw for much of the southern half country is right around the corner and have no reason to believe otherwise.

A thaw when it never really froze..wondering if the long range forecasts of Jan-Feb being below normal temp and above in precip will bust. Just how strong is the Nino. Seems it's not having as much effect as previously thought.

[SouthernMet]

6z RGEM for early thursday morning : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=301.8182

SREF same time : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref ... p_MAX_3hr_

temps are going to be so crucial as freezing rain doesn't do a whole lot with temps 32-31, any colder and we could be talking serious problems thursday morning, i'll keep a close eye because a difference in 2 degrees could make a huge difference in impacts imo.

[SouthernMet]

NWS San Angelo to issue Winter Weather Advisory, warns of possible upgrade if trends continue. DFW will leave the burden to a later shift.

Edit : Winter Storm Warning Issued for Midland/Odessa/Big Spring & West tx.
Winter Storm Watch up for Kerrville, Burnet & Fredricksburg.

imo all signs are pointing towards a WSW or Ice Storm Warning for areas west of a Gainesville/Mineral Wells line & WWA criteria for I-35.

[Ralph's Weather]

The models sure are consistent with showing the cold staying west of I-35. Hard to believe, but it may happen. At this point short range models and now-casting are the way to go.

[orangeblood]

Overnights Euro deterministic & almost all of its ensemble members now show around a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation for Dfw New Years morning...reversing the trend of a warmer solution

[Ralph's Weather]

Overnights Euro deterministic & almost all of its ensemble members now show around a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation for Dfw New Years morning...reversing the trend of a warmer solution

I think the freezing line will end up further east than the models show, but how far east is the question. Dallas will likely get some icing, areas east of the Metroplex are more questionable and the Tyler area is unlikely but not impossible.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Houston still rainy...?

Ya I don't think we will get anything more than a cold rain

Lol kingwood these models do horrible with shallow artic air, we were supposed get a cold rain in 2008 we say what happen

Not sure what happend,I didn't live here
in 2008

[Portastorm]

This might surprise some but I like EWX's thinking about this event and am now thinking the AUS metro area may end up a few degrees too warm for ZR/ZL. Gonna be close though and as we know, a few degrees can make a huge difference. Also agree with an earlier post about 32 not being so bad for ZR but a degree or two colder and then you've got real trouble.

Parts of west central, west and north Texas are definitely going to experience wintry weather.

[Tammie]

PORTA - Why north Texas? None of our local mets are giving us any hope of anything but rain.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Definitely not as cold this morning or forecasted this week as I thought it was going to be.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not that it is much but 36 and drizzle here around Tyler and Lindale. Just a few degrees and a bit of extra moisture away though not sure if it will happen.

[Snowman67]

At this point, it looks like the NWS was/is correct about the temps not getting nearly as cold as many of us thought.

[Snowman67]

Any of the recent model runs still showing another shot of arctic later in the forecast period? Seems like I recall that they backed off of that scenario yesterday.

[WacoWx]

In midland now. Was going to Carlsbad Caverns on the way to Ruidoso, but I'm now bypassing it with hopes of avoiding any ice. Anyone have any idea when I can expect heavier precip to begin? It's drizzling and 34 now.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm likely over a large part of TX NYE and NYD with travel impacts.

Mainly cold rain for most of SE TX.

Arctic cold front be driven by impressive 1055mb high pressure cell over MT this morning continues to ooze its ways southward under unfavorable WSW flow aloft. Dense cold air mass damming against the higher elevations of the southern Rockies is helping to force the cold air south across west TX and it will gradually spread eastward across the rest of the state today. Temperatures today will warm slightly into the mid 50’s prior to the onset of cold air advection and then begin to fall this afternoon as the arctic air begins to filter into the region. Upstream temperatures over CO are very cold in the 1’s and this air mass will continue to surge down into WC and NW TX today.

NYE:
Cold arctic air mass will be in place with warm nose on WSW flow aloft above the surface cold pool. This will certainly create a thick deck of clouds allowing for very little if any warming on Wednesday. Still think the best course of action is to undercut guidance numbers by up to 5 degrees and go with near steady temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s not the upper 40’s. Strong upper level storm system over the US west coast begins its track toward TX on NYE with lift starting to increase NYE night over the top of the surface cold dome. An extensive review of forecasted surface low temperatures and dewpoints/wet bulb suggest most of SE TX will remain liquid. Forecast profiles show a strong warm nose above the arctic cold dome favoring only freezing rain if the surface temperature were to fall to freezing. Dewpoints in the upper 20’s for College Station and Huntsville late NYE night/NYD with surface temperatures of 32-35 suggest onset of light precipitation in this region (far north and west) may be enough to lower the surface temperature to freezing and result in freezing rain/drizzle. This would be a very marginal ice threat given warm ground temperatures and temperatures in the 31-33 degree range…still some bridges and overpasses NW of a line from Columbus to Brenham to Huntsville could see some ice accumulation late NYE night into NYD. Still a lot of uncertainty in this part of the forecast.

Bigger problems appear along and west of I-35 northward into OK where sub freezing surface layer and higher QPF values support more significant ice accumulations. Hence A Winter Storm Watch is issued along and NW of a line from Del Rio to west of Georgetown and this watch may be extended eastward to include portions of the I-35 corridor late today or possibly an advisory. Travel impacts are likely in the Winter Storm Watch area NYE night and NYD.

NYD:
Cold and wet with only a very slow temperature recovery from morning lows in the mid 30’s. Coastal trough is forced off the lower TX coast due to incoming storm system from the west. Widespread lift from the coastal trough lifting northward toward the coast will result in numerous showers all day with temperatures slowly warming into the upper 30’s. Think any potential freezing rain over the far north and west counties will be ended by mid morning with temperatures warming a few degrees above freezing. Should more cold air more into the region than expected then this could linger the freezing rain threat over those NW counties longer into Thursday.

Friday:
More cold and wet with the upper level system approaching from the west. Coastal trough will lift toward the coast and then move toward LA with widespread rain and elevated thunderstorms likely. Does not look like surface warm front will move inland much if at all keeping much of the region in the cold sector. Expect temperatures to slowly warm into the upper 40’s under widespread rain.

Saturday:
Upper level system moves across the state with rain continuing early. Latest model runs have shown a little bit slower of a system and this could linger rain into Saturday afternoon with continued cool temperatures.

Upper level system will exit east Saturday night allowing a dry and cool air mass to filter in for next Sunday with sunny skies hopefully returning.

Rainfall amounts over the next 2-3 days will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. Grounds are wet from recent rainfall and additional widespread rainfall as is being suggested will likely result in rises on area rivers.

[TexasF6]

The cold air is moving south. I just checked out the SPC's mesoscale features. The 1054-56HPC is still moving south from Montana. Since when does dense Arctic air not bull Southward??????? This is nuts.

[TexasF6]

Don't look now, but that HP is so strong its pulling the low pressure system further south based on WV imagery. What does this mean???? For the cold air??? If the storm ejects further south?? Then what? Wxman? Porta?

[Tig70]

Temp has dropped about 5 degrees in the last 2 hours here in Lubbock (25 now). Drizzle has already started, which seems quite a bit earlier than most were expecting.