Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

WPC starting to up things but still appears very skeptical.

[bubba hotep]

Silly NAM!

http://i63.tinypic.com/newe4i.jpg

And still going strong at the end of the run. However, the freezing line appears to be precariously close to DFW.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS with another step towards the Euro

Fresh 12z run



vs 00z

[Ntxw]

Canadian now has snow for DFW.

We can probably now start looking at totals and increasing qpf given we are only a few days away.

Looks like the snow drought may soon come to an end. Also January has not seen greater than 1" since 2002-2003. Greater than 2" you'd have to go back to 1985 officially at the airport.

[bubba hotep]

12z models so far (remember to take snowfall maps with a grain of salt but this is the best we can do)

[South Texas Storms]

Remember to not use the snowfall maps including sleet as the ice really shows much higher snow totals.

On the GFS and NAM Tropical Tidbits maps, use the "Total Positive Snow-Depth Change" for a more accurate depiction of the model's snowfall forecast.

I don't think the Canadian and ICON models have this same issue as the American models.

[northjaxpro]

I don't want to jinx everyone out there , but I have been monitoring the evolution of this upcoming system over on the Deep South thread since last weekend.

I can say with increasing confidence that DFW metro stands a rather decent chance of seeing wintry precip later this week. Actually, you all over there have really entertained me during this snowless streak DFW has experienced. The humor many of you share on this thread is priceless.

I am rooting for you all out in the DFW area to see Mother Nature finally bring an end to this snowless streak. But, I will miss the humorous banter about this if it does indeed ends later this week.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow:
Remember to not use the snowfall maps including sleet as the ice really shows much higher snow totals.

On the GFS and NAM Tropical Tidbits maps, use the "Total Positive Snow-Depth Change" for a more accurate depiction of the model's snowfall forecast.

I don't think the Canadian and ICON models have this same issue as the American models.

That is why I said to take them with a "grain of salt." Given the difficulty of forecasting snow and the potential for mesoscale banding, it is basically pointless to try and pin down totals this far out on a somewhat marginal event. However, the maps are a good proxy for areas that might receive winter wx from this system.

[bubba hotep]

I don't want to jinx everyone out there , but I have been monitoring the evolution of this upcoming system over on the Deep South thread since last weekend.

I can say with increasing confidence that DFW metro stands a rather decent chance of seeing wintry precip later this week. Actually, you all over there have really entertained me during this snowless strrak DFW has experienced. The humor many of you share on this thread is priceless.

I am rooting for you all out in the DFW area to see Mother Nature finally bring an end to this snowless streak. But, I will miss the humorous banter about this.

Don't worry! Whatever this system delivers will not be enough to satisfy and we will never be happy to see Houston or Austin get snow when we are not included lol

[Portastorm]

Hey bubba, we’re pulling for y’all! I hope you Metroplexers get a nice snowfall out of this event although it still”feels” too early to get excited.

I’m honestly expecting, at best (or worst), a cold rain here and maybe some of my fave - freezing drizzle.

[Ralph's Weather]

If we can get Canadian model temps and NAM moisture then we arereally in business. I really expect areas west of I35 or north of I20 and areas 50 or so miles SE of that line to be sub freezing all day Wed. There is some good cold air up.north which is only reinforced by the upper low. Eastern areas of this zone may warm to mid 30s mid morning before the upper low gets closer before falling back after lunch. Add to that the expected be yet not depicted strength of the STJ and we could see something pretty substantial

[Yukon Cornelius]

Silly NAM!

http://i63.tinypic.com/newe4i.jpg

However, I do think the NAM correctly predicted the placement at least of our last two winter weather events up here. The totals were nowhere close to what it was showing but the areas that it was showing would see snow saw it in some form.

[bubba hotep]

Through 42hrs the Euro looks about the same, maybe a bit deeper with the system as it digs into the SW.

[bubba hotep]

Through 60hrs, system is a bit slower and deeper in the SW. Northern Stream vort is a bit stronger and moisture return is a bit better.

[Brent]

Euro looks warmer? The snow line is dangerously close to the metro and areas NW and up in Oklahoma get way more snow this run

[Cerlin]

Euro looks warmer? The snow line is dangerously close to the metro and areas NW and up in Oklahoma get way more snow this run

I figured this would happen—let’s hope it’s an outlier.

[Ntxw]

Euro looks warmer? The snow line is dangerously close to the metro and areas NW and up in Oklahoma get way more snow this run

Euro is more amplified is why. It increases coverage and qpf with a slightly more northerly track.

[bubba hotep]

Euro looks warmer? The snow line is dangerously close to the metro and areas NW and up in Oklahoma get way more snow this run

Yep, a lot warmer by like 5 degrees at the surface. System is slower and deeper allowing for more return flow of warm moist air and then when it finally kicks out to the NE is stays NW of DFW... crash and burn.

[Brent]

Not great

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro looks warmer? The snow line is dangerously close to the metro and areas NW and up in Oklahoma get way more snow this run

Euro is more amplified is why. It increases coverage and qpf with a slightly more northerly track.

Yep I was a bit concerned about this after looking at the other globals with many deepening out west too much. Ideally we would like it to be weaker which would allow it to stay further south.