Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

The EURO flipped

[UTSARoadrunner4]

12z GFS

https://i.ibb.co/R2wzVK4/IMG-0091.png

https://i.ibb.co/tZsGqvw/IMG-0092.png

This would be a winter dream…or mess. Depends on how you view it. GFS has been on it for at least a couple of runs now.

[Stratton23]

Yep Euro caved, all three major global models + ICON have a winter weather event, the key difference being surface temperatures, but we all know global models do exceptionally poor at seeing surface cold, will be interesting to see the short range guidance when they come into range

[rwfromkansas]

Pivotal GFS shows 9 inches for me in DFW with Kuchera. Nice.

We are trying to decide if it's worth trying to go to KS tomorrow and either come back Sunday or miss school PD and drive back Monday. It's borderline since my family goes home Saturday evening after our party, and with timing likely the party would be canceled anyway. Tempting to see snow, but yikes.

It seems to be trending slightly north again, which would mean more ice. Still a good 4-6 inches up there, but not the foot showed last night.

[txtwister78]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

[orangeblood]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

I don't believe that's the source region, Arctic HP is originating north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. It's already in place now (1051 hPa) and will slowly moves south over the next few days

Current Location


Moves into northern Alberta this weekend then reinforces the HP in the central plains next week

[Ralph's Weather]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

The problem with cold directly north is that it suppresses everything. Yes as always it's a Goldilocks situation but this one looks better than most. An advantage this time is it's not one quick disturbance, it is a series of disturbances with cold air already in place and a steady moisture source.

[txtwister78]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

Not quite, Arctic HP is originating north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. It's already in place now and will slowly moves south over the next few days

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1735819200-zjUE2S6ECX8.png

Well yeah that's a current snapshot of the 500mb, however I was referring to the evolution of what the pattern looks like next week with the timing of the disturbance and what are pattern looks like then. Most of the arctic air per models is shown over the areas I mentioned. Perhaps some of it modifies as it moves south but the core definitely shifts east per latest EPS and GEFS

[orangeblood]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

Not quite, Arctic HP is originating north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. It's already in place now and will slowly moves south over the next few days

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1735819200-zjUE2S6ECX8.png

Well yeah that's a current snapshot of the 500mb, however I was referring to the evolution of what the pattern looks like next week with the timing of the disturbance and what are pattern looks like then. Most of the arctic air per models is shown over the areas I mentioned. Perhaps some of it modifies as it moves south but the core definitely shifts east per latest EPS and GEFS

The 2nd snapshot is the evolution of the HP origin. All of these HPs are originating north of Alaska and are heading directly down into the southern plains per almost all guidance, including ensembles. Models all appear to be getting colder including ensembles, I think the main question is how long it can stick around particularly if the system ejects out later in the week instead of mid week.

Here is the GEFS 2m Temp change from 06Z to 12Z

[Gotwood]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

Not quite, Arctic HP is originating north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. It's already in place now and will slowly moves south over the next few days

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1735819200-zjUE2S6ECX8.png

Well yeah that's a current snapshot of the 500mb, however I was referring to the evolution of what the pattern looks like next week with the timing of the disturbance and what are pattern looks like then. Most of the arctic air per models is shown over the areas I mentioned. Perhaps some of it modifies as it moves south but the core definitely shifts east per latest EPS and GEFS

I think like with most Arctic intrusions the models struggle with the cold. Sure the PNA is a tad positive but the AO is in absolute tank mode.

[Stratton23]

As far as see, Some big changes coming after this winter weather event per ensembles, any moderation looks to only last maybe a couple of days before we see a new alaskan ridge beginning to rebuild , GEFS is colder in the longer range again, EPS starting to lean that way, it actually takes the cut off shortwave and sets it up shop over the western US , keeping much of the western and central us below normal, point is, any talk you may hear of a january thaw looks to be pretty short liced at the most, in fact id argue the end of january going into middle february could feature more severe cold potential

[txtwister78]

The one thing models are showing more (at least to me) is the source region isn't where you want it to be for big cold down here. Look at where all your arctic cold is building per models (near the great lakes region) over Ontario. Again, doesn't mean you can't get just enough cold to overrun with precip with the help of a digging disturbance dropping/ejecting out to pull just enough cold down to setup a winter weather event but I wouldn't call that scenario a sure thing by any means. In fact, I would say it's marginal but definitely not zero. Surprise would be the better word for it.

The problem with cold directly north is that it suppresses everything. Yes as always it's a Goldilocks situation but this one looks better than most. An advantage this time is it's not one quick disturbance, it is a series of disturbances with cold air already in place and a steady moisture source.

Agree. It's not that we want an arctic blast direct because typically that does exactly what you describe in terms of suppression but also lowers your moisture levels significantly, however down here as we all know you need enough cold with the moisture all at the right time and so all those boxes have to be checked.

No question models are at least opening the door for the opportunity for a winter weather event but I still think temps are going to be borderline to where the disturbance (type/strength/timing) will matter the most in the end. Does that create enough of an upper level cold to give us snow or is it a cold rain, which by the way those are the best events anyway in terms of snowfall. Big burst of heavy wet snow.

[Iceresistance]

I know y'all are going to LOVE the 12z GFS


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeT.gif

[Ralph's Weather]

Agree. It's not that we want an arctic blast direct because typically that does exactly what you describe in terms of suppression but also lowers your moisture levels significantly, however down here as we all know you need enough cold with the moisture all at the right time and so all those boxes have to be checked.

No question models are at least opening the door for the opportunity for a winter weather event but I still think temps are going to be borderline to where the disturbance (type/strength/timing) will matter the most in the end. Does that create enough of an upper level cold to give us snow or is it a cold rain, which by the way those are the best events anyway in terms of snowfall. Big burst of heavy wet snow.

And this may be a case where you in SC TX moderate to above freezing but us in N and NE TX stay in the mid to upper 20s. Up here I just don't see a moderation to the mid 30s until maybe Friday, Thu at earliest if system ejects earlier than expected.

[Iceresistance]

Oh good lord, this is within 10 days!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png

[HockeyTx82]

Oh good lord, this is within 10 days!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png

Yup. The Kiss of Death.

I'm planning on busting out my summer gear now.

[Ntxw]

Some better trends today. As noted once you get under 144 (really under 120) then it's worth getting more involved with it. It just feels closer because we have been talking about forever (in itself a sign of potential) 200+ and 300+ hours...finally getting into range you can begin to get emotional over .

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh good lord, this is within 10 days!

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXNeI.png

6 days from onset and models are converging on best case scenario. Really only a couple days left before we can at least lock in that it will happen. Locations of best bands and such will have to wait until Monday though. Issues are how much moisture makes it into deepest cold and if temps moderate down south to above freezing.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro ENS now seeing the storm the GFS is depicting, much wetter compared to last nights runs.

0Z


12Z

[txtwister78]

Not quite, Arctic HP is originating north of Alaska in the Beaufort Sea. It's already in place now and will slowly moves south over the next few days

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1735819200/1735819200-zjUE2S6ECX8.png

Well yeah that's a current snapshot of the 500mb, however I was referring to the evolution of what the pattern looks like next week with the timing of the disturbance and what are pattern looks like then. Most of the arctic air per models is shown over the areas I mentioned. Perhaps some of it modifies as it moves south but the core definitely shifts east per latest EPS and GEFS

The 2nd snapshot is the evolution of the HP origin. All of these HPs are originating north of Alaska and are heading directly down into the southern plains per almost all guidance, including ensembles. Models all appear to be getting colder including ensembles, I think the main question is how long it can stick around particularly if the system ejects out later in the week instead of mid week.

Here is the GEFS 2m Temp change from 06Z to 12Z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_dprog/1735819200/1736326800-oo3WPX04hQU.png

I think some of that has to do with precipitation but by in large I don't see that map as a huge indicator/shift of a big temp change overall.

Agreed about how long it hangs around. Ensembles seem to indicate that we moderate a bit headed into late next wk.