Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

18z GFS had a massive trough taking over most of the US by around the 23rd with a ton of blocking in alaska and the arctic regions, not really much cold on the run, but definitely a setup to potentially significant cold , AI GFS the same thing, will see if the ensembles hold on this idea over the next week or so
Edit: 18z Euro Aifs came in significantly colder

My assumption is we need the blocking first with the Alaska change, it won't get cold overnight. But, that's a good sign.

[Ntxw]

The good news is that by this weekend Alaska will change from lower heights to higher heights. After that what happens with the ridge has implications on what kind of cold air mass will build and then eventually delivered if it comes down. It is nice to see at least that change happening that isn't two weeks down the road.

[Stratton23]

GFS has a monster 576 MB alaskan ridge, at least we know their will be a - EPO in place, one step of the puzzle is down, hopefully we can get more of a neutral PNA, though wouldnt mind a weak - PNA either

[Ntxw]

GFS has a monster 576 MB alaskan ridge, at least we know their will be a - EPO in place, one step of the puzzle is down, hopefully we can get more of a neutral PNA, though wouldnt mind a weak - PNA either

After the 20th the MJO will be in P7. That will be the step after to get more of the central conus cold.

[starsfan65]

GFS has a monster 576 MB alaskan ridge, at least we know their will be a - EPO in place, one step of the puzzle is down, hopefully we can get more of a neutral PNA, though wouldnt mind a weak - PNA either

After the 20th the MJO will be in P7. That will be the step after to get more of the central conus cold.

I hope it happens

[Cpv17]

That Texans defense is naaaasstttyyy!!

[Stratton23]

Yessir, cold weather couldnt save the steelers hahhaha

[Stratton23]

Will be interesting to see how the models respond to the MJO going into P7 rather soon on about a week or so, I will say though the ensembles tomight are trending even colder in western and central canada, thats a lot of cold thats starting to ooze south on tonights ensembles, we got a long ways to go, but P7 favors cold in the central US, id expect we probably will see some crazy runs in the days ahead, but im not getting excited until maybe next saturday or sunday, and if models/ ensembles are still showing this, then we have some reason to be excited

[Brent]

Well the OKC met "doesn't like what he sees in 2 weeks" and he's bragging about record highs again today so that's a good sign

The record is from 1996 though which had a pretty good winter shot very end of January and early February I guess. We had a high of 8 and low of -11 back then. 6 days below freezing in a row

We can only hope at this point haha

One thing seems likely... This is our last day near 70 for awhile for real it seems like

[orangeblood]

Really good look for the southern plains, PV in a great spot to deliver!! Duration is still uncertain but this could be a really potent arctic front in the 10-14 day range

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well the OKC met "doesn't like what he sees in 2 weeks" and he's bragging about record highs again today so that's a good sign

The record is from 1996 though which had a pretty good winter shot very end of January and early February I guess. We had a high of 8 and low of -11 back then. 6 days below freezing in a row

We can only hope at this point haha

One thing seems likely... This is our last day near 70 for awhile for real it seems like

Our local met is saying similar. Says that he sees big changes and cold air potentially coming towards the end of the month and into February.

[Brent]

Well the OKC met "doesn't like what he sees in 2 weeks" and he's bragging about record highs again today so that's a good sign

The record is from 1996 though which had a pretty good winter shot very end of January and early February I guess. We had a high of 8 and low of -11 back then. 6 days below freezing in a row

We can only hope at this point haha

One thing seems likely... This is our last day near 70 for awhile for real it seems like

Our local met is saying similar. Says that he sees big changes and cold air potentially coming towards the end of the month and into February.

The Euro had a winter storm setup around the weekend of the 24th 25th

[Lagreeneyes03]

Well the OKC met "doesn't like what he sees in 2 weeks" and he's bragging about record highs again today so that's a good sign

The record is from 1996 though which had a pretty good winter shot very end of January and early February I guess. We had a high of 8 and low of -11 back then. 6 days below freezing in a row

We can only hope at this point haha

One thing seems likely... This is our last day near 70 for awhile for real it seems like

I think this is a who's right who's wrong scenario. News mets were last night saying get ready for another warm up in Texas/Oklahoma after the 20th.

[Brent]

Well the OKC met "doesn't like what he sees in 2 weeks" and he's bragging about record highs again today so that's a good sign

The record is from 1996 though which had a pretty good winter shot very end of January and early February I guess. We had a high of 8 and low of -11 back then. 6 days below freezing in a row

We can only hope at this point haha

One thing seems likely... This is our last day near 70 for awhile for real it seems like

I think this is a who's right who's wrong scenario. News mets were last night saying get ready for another warm up in Texas/Oklahoma after the 20th.

Yeah to be fair there is still some above normal temperatures here but it's only a couple days during the week instead of the entire forecast now. The fronts seem to be focused on the weekends. Also the NWS mentioned the coldest air of the season for Sunday potentially

If we're still in la Nina temps are probably gonna be all over the place anyway

1996 which was mentioned earlier had -11 and 90 degrees here in February

The GFS has a high of 23 on the 24th here

[TomballEd]

Really good look for the southern plains, PV in a great spot to deliver!! Duration is still uncertain but this could be a really potent arctic front in the 10-14 day range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom/1768262400/1769191200-9HDHLJntMk4.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t850_anom_stream/1768262400/1769191200-H55FfOYLoLU.png

That looks very promising yet the 0Z Euro ensemble surface and 850 mb temps suggest most of the cold air misses us again to the north and east.

[snownado]

That Texans defense is naaaasstttyyy!!

Enjoy while it lasts. The Pats are going to manhandle CJ...

[Stratton23]

surprise surprise the arctic air wins out on the GFS, lots of time to watch, but p7 generally favors the central US for cold

[orangeblood]

surprise surprise the arctic air wins out on the GFS, lots of time to watch, but p7 generally favors the central US for cold

1063 Monster HP in our source region depicted within the 10 day window, finally something to start trending...first time this winter!

[Stratton23]

orangeblood yeah you get a HP cell that strong dropping out of NW canada, that SE ridging is going to get crushed lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just saw that on the models. It's another check on the box of things we need. Not going to get worked up about what it's showing after that. P7 is good for C US, not great for us in the Rockies. Still holding out hope that we have a wiggle in the jet stream for an AR to hit the Rockies near the end of the month.