Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

Noticed that as well Brent..wanted to wash it out early before, now looks like some good post frontal precip, light snow all the way to the coast....

[Ivanhater]

Wow...maybe we were looking a little to far in advance...this for tomorrow nigh/Wed morning...Snow all the way to the coast!

Nam







GFS

[Brent]

[Brent]

This looks familiar...





Bombs out and buries the Carolinas



If it just bombed a bit earlier...

[attallaman]

Getting a bit late in the season for snow down here attallaman...though I do recall flurries in late March back in the early 80's. Maybe when the eggnog is back in season......MGC

Did somebody say eggnog? My freezer is full of Piggly Wiggly eggnog. Could that be a sign that we might still have a remote chance for some snow down here along our beautiful Mississippi Gulf Coast before the season is out? MGC, have you toured the Biloxi lighthouse since it reopened last week? The city just finished a $400,000.00 renovation of the old landmark which dates back to the Civil War days. The local contractor did a nice job bringing it back to it's pre-Katrina days.

[TigerCraig]

Baton Rouge has high of 58 today--Not sure what they are smoking.. Its 41 cloudy and a stiff north wind. I don't see it getting out of the 40's

[TigerCraig]

43 degrees at 11:00.. They may miss the high by 10+ degrees

[CYCLONE MIKE]

TC, don't expect much. I think the rain will get out of here before the colder air moves in, might see a brief changeover. Pretty much like last weeks event. Our local office has not been big on this storm since models picked it up. Guess they are playing ultra conservative since last week was such a big bust for them/us.

[Brent]

[nicolemarie117]

im hearing chances of snow sometime this week and on saturday for atlanta, whats this looking like? whats the chances and will it accumulate?

[Ivanhater]

That is one hell of a snowstorm on the Gulf coast and deep south folks!! Winter is not over!

[Ivanhater]

This for tomorrow morning!

[Stormcenter]

Below is this (2/23) afternoon's NWS discussion out of New Orleans,LA.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING OF TONIGHT/S WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND EASTERN TEXAS. ECHOES APPEAR
ON THE LIX RADAR JUST NW OF BTR BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ARE
LIKELY KEEPING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WET BULB COOLING TO BE MOST SIGNIFICANT
AFTER 00Z AS RAIN MOVING IN SATURATES THE COLUMN. LIKE MOST SNOW
FORECASTS FOR SOUTH LOUISIANA...THE TOUGHEST PART IS TIMING THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...LOCATIONS...AND DURATION OF FROZEN PRECIP. AS
OF NOW...SWRN MS WILL BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW PSBLY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WILL COOL
THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR A FULL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG SWRN MS AND
THE ADJACENT LA PARISHES...POSSIBLY DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
BATON ROUGE METRO AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A LINE OF MIX SNOW/RAIN
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN BTR METRO NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH AND INTO NORTHERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTY MS. THE PRECIP SHOULD DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND BE COMPLETELY DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MOST FROZEN PRECIP FALLING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW WITH LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH AS THE MAX ACROSS THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND SFC TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING
RESULTED IN THE DECISION TO ONLY GO OUT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AS OPPOSED TO A WNTR WX ADVSRY. IMPACTS ARE JUST EXPECTED
TO BE SO MINIMAL THAT IT DIDN/T SEEM APPROPRIATE. LATER
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IN CASE THE FORECAST IS TOO CONSERVATIVE AND THEN AN
ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONCE TODAY/S SYSTEM PULLS THROUGH...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NWRLY
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. ONE CONCERN IS LOWS WED
NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN
QUICKLY WILL SET UP FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD END UP WITH
MID 20S IN SWRN MS AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE I-12 CORRIDOR. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK. STILL HAVE SOME DISCONTINUITY ON TIMING AND SFC LOW LOCATION
RESULTING IN A LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TO BE
HONEST...THE BIGGER CONCERN COMES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST
A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO THE GULF SOUTH WITH A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF
THIS SCENARIO WERE TO ACTUALLY PLAY OUT...THE GULF SOUTH WILL BE
LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT.WINTER SEASON JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO WANT TO GO AWAY.

[SunnyThoughts]

991MB? Has anyone heard of this model before?

[Ntxw]

It's an extension of the NAM using GFS data. Isn't the best to rely on.

[TigerCraig]

This storm looks as though it is becoming moisture starved..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agree TC, we might not even get rain out of this the way it is falling apart right now. Guess will look ahead to this weekends potential, but the way the last two systems have panned out not holding my breath.

[m_ru]

There's no way I'm falling for the snow hype again. I'll believe it if I see it...and I wont see it. The weather models that call for snow on the coast are WRONG on a consistent basis. Have fun in the snow all you folks that are farther north. It's funny that I moved from southeast Texas where I was always praying for a snowfall every winter, and since I moved here have been multiple snowfalls in my hometown. It's bullhonkey I tell you. Bullhonkey. Mother nature hates my guts. I wish I knew what I did to her.

I love deep fried crow. Just sayin'.

[Brent]

Can you say blizzard?



The GFS is dry and suppressed, think that's unlikely. I think if this storm doesn't pan out here it will be because it's too warm and cause a blizzard further north. Still think this storm has historic potential, much bigger than the 12th. I fully intend on chasing this storm if it looks anything remotely close to this

[timNms]

Snowing at my house. Cars and rooftops covered. Ground is turning white. Temp is 34 with windchill of 27.