Ntxw wrote:Next weekend GRAYSONCO.WX. Euro says Fri-Sat, GFS Sun-Mon
Texas Winter 2010-2011
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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GRAYSONCO.WX
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Looks like the NAM is showing some light precip overnight. Wonder how much of the roads will be covered with a glaze of ice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
If this GFS close to being right, next Monday there is going to be some wild temperature swings in the state of Texas...
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
txagwxman wrote:If this GFS close to being right, next Monday there is going to be some wild temperature swings in the state of Texas...
What are you seeing?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Arctic front with 9F in OKC, 60s Houston.
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
txagwxman wrote:If this GFS close to being right, next Monday there is going to be some wild temperature swings in the state of Texas...
If that's the case, tornado watches in south Texas and blizzard warnings in the panhandle?
. One thing is for sure, lots of drought relief
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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SETXPTNeches
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Just wanted to say Hello from Port Neches TX and that I have been lurking for years. I learn so much from this website, especially during Hurricane Season!!! I am not yet good with Winter Weather Models, so I tune in and keep learning.... 
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cycloneye
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
SETXPTNeches wrote:Just wanted to say Hello from Port Neches TX and that I have been lurking for years. I learn so much from this website, especially during Hurricane Season!!! I am not yet good with Winter Weather Models, so I tune in and keep learning....
Welcome to Storm2k and dont hesitate to ask questions about the models or any other theme.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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serenata09
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
txagwxman wrote:http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1919/gfs2mus16818z.png
Arctic front with 9F in OKC, 60s Houston.
Any precip with that at this early stage of the game?
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SETXPTNeches
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
cycloneye wrote:SETXPTNeches wrote:Just wanted to say Hello from Port Neches TX and that I have been lurking for years. I learn so much from this website, especially during Hurricane Season!!! I am not yet good with Winter Weather Models, so I tune in and keep learning....
Welcome to Storm2k and dont hesitate to ask questions about the models or any other theme.
Thank you cycloneye!
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PN-G Indians #1
Rita & Ike
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Rita & Ike
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Ntxw wrote:txagwxman wrote:If this GFS close to being right, next Monday there is going to be some wild temperature swings in the state of Texas...
If that's the case, tornado watches in south Texas and blizzard warnings in the panhandle?
Yeah, that's one of the things we haven't really mentioned is drought relief. Looks like a good soaking precip event today from north to south, east of I-35.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
What a day in Grayson County!!!
My two sons and yours truly duck hunted in a steady, cold rain this morning. Temp dropped from 38 before sunrise to lower 30s by 8:30 a.m.
As temp dropped, rain transitioned to a mix, then to all sleet, then to all snow about 8:30 or so so.
Went to church, came out to a near whiteout.
By the time it ended, about 4" in Sherman/Denison according to most reports. Lots of snowpacked roads early in the afternoon and a number of accidents.
Now slush is refreezing on main roads while many secondary streets are still somewhat snowpacked. My kids have a snow day tomorrow in the Denison ISD.
My two sons and yours truly duck hunted in a steady, cold rain this morning. Temp dropped from 38 before sunrise to lower 30s by 8:30 a.m.
As temp dropped, rain transitioned to a mix, then to all sleet, then to all snow about 8:30 or so so.
Went to church, came out to a near whiteout.
By the time it ended, about 4" in Sherman/Denison according to most reports. Lots of snowpacked roads early in the afternoon and a number of accidents.
Now slush is refreezing on main roads while many secondary streets are still somewhat snowpacked. My kids have a snow day tomorrow in the Denison ISD.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Texas Snowman wrote:What a day in Grayson County!!!
My two sons and yours truly duck hunted in a steady, cold rain this morning. Temp dropped from 38 before sunrise to lower 30s by 8:30 a.m.
As temp dropped, rain transitioned to a mix, then to all sleet, then to all snow about 8:30 or so so.
Went to church, came out to a near whiteout.
By the time it ended, about 4" in Sherman/Denison according to most reports. Lots of snowpacked roads early in the afternoon and a number of accidents.
Now slush is refreezing on main roads while many secondary streets are still somewhat snowpacked. My kids have a snow day tomorrow in the Denison ISD.
I woke up at 5 to go duck hunting this morning and saw it was raining instead of snowing so I went back to sleep lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Frst time to ever post! Thanks for all the great information that you guys, and gals put out there for us to read. I cant wait to see what happens next week! thanks again everyone. I have learned so much in the last year or so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
bevolon wrote:Frst time to ever post! Thanks for all the great information that you guys, and gals put out there for us to read. I cant wait to see what happens next week! thanks again everyone. I have learned so much in the last year or so.
Welcome! Glad you decided to join us. Hopefully we'll live up to expectations for next week
if there is anything!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Well the 0z gfs is rolling out. Looks similar although the cold air doesnt make it nearly as far south and seems to get hung up on the red river and pushes the high east. Although it's a week out and there hasnt been much consistency for this event, this looks to be the typical gfs error where it doesnt bring dense cold airmasses far enough south. Nonetheless, it does show a 1050mb+ high building in alaska in the near term and seems plausible up to that point. I guess its too early to tell and we'll just have to see what trends develop in future runs and what actually pans out.
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somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Are we still set for that FRDZ event? So far, so dry.
We got about 1" (generously) here in Garland and Mesquite. About 1/4" on the trees, 3/4" on the grass, and 1" - 1 1/2" on the parked cars. Not a bad event all together when you consider that we could have very easily had a washout.
The whole Metroplex has been below freezing since around sunset so I expected that all that snowmelt would run from the grass into the roads and refreeze, but when I drove home at 10pm, the roads were still fine. I was surprised....I didn't even notice any slick spots on the bridges.
We got about 1" (generously) here in Garland and Mesquite. About 1/4" on the trees, 3/4" on the grass, and 1" - 1 1/2" on the parked cars. Not a bad event all together when you consider that we could have very easily had a washout.
The whole Metroplex has been below freezing since around sunset so I expected that all that snowmelt would run from the grass into the roads and refreeze, but when I drove home at 10pm, the roads were still fine. I was surprised....I didn't even notice any slick spots on the bridges.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
That's good you made it without any problems somethingfunny! I haven't seen any precip on radar or heard of anything from anyone that would indicate FRDZ, at least not in the core cities. I have seen in the past that places with snow cover sometimes develop a low layer of fog which could pose some problems FRZFog. Euro has backed off on the Friday idea and pushed it back to GFS-like times early next week.
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somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Preliminary snowfall estimates from FWD:
.....Can you say "urban heat island"?
.....Can you say "urban heat island"?
Last edited by somethingfunny on Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Very light freezing rain/drizzle and fog has developed with temps in the mid to upper 20's.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011
TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-145>148-101500-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-
HOPKINS-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-
ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE
1251 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 20S...ANY DRIZZLE WOULD FREEZE INSTANTLY CREATING A
LIGHT ICY COATING PRIMARILY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THESE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 9 AM CST.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1014 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-101200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
1014 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011
...PATCHY FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...
LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE. FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1
TO 3 MILES WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTH ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND...RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING FOG OR
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...EXPOSED SURFACES AND BRIDGES MAY RECEIVE A LIGHT GLAZING
OF ICE BY MORNING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
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