Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gpsnowman]

Light rain moving in. Started off as strong storms to our southwest but have weakened as they approach DFW. Any rain is good.

Another system devoid of cold air with plenty of moisture. Like Ntwx said, we gotta thread the needle on one of these systems. Just once and we can move on to spring.

[wxman57]

Interesting map tweeted by Greg Carbin. It shows a revised U.S. annual rainfall average based on the past 25 yrs vs. the previous 25 yrs. You can see how Harvey & Imelda bumped up the 25-yr average in SE TX. Much of the U.S. was wetter over the past 25 yrs. Very rainy in the Ohio Valley over the past 25 yrs. A big exception is Arizona, which now averages 1-5 inches less than the previous 25 yrs. Considering that the average rainfall in Phoenix, for example, is only 9 inches, that's quite a change.

[Haris]

.58” last night. 2.64” month to date.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS ensemble members are on board with the western US ridge shifting off shore and an upper low moving into Texas next week. That is a decent looking setup for winter precip. GFS ensemble mean for snow next week across the northern half of the state is 0.5-1" of snow with a couple members showing a big storm.

[Yukon Cornelius]

At least some places are having a winter and snow. This is our cam at the cabin outside of Westcliffe, CO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

At least some places are having a winter and snow. This is our cam at the cabin outside of Westcliffe, CO.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/khT3Z4k/305773-A2-8-B29-44-D6-8899-C33-ED77-FE368.png [/url]

Im skiing at Crested Butte right now. Drove through westcliffe on Saturday. Love that down, and yes the snow coverage was beautiful.

I could stare at the mountains that run to west all day, The mountains that run to the west.

[Yukon Cornelius]

At least some places are having a winter and snow. This is our cam at the cabin outside of Westcliffe, CO.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/khT3Z4k/305773-A2-8-B29-44-D6-8899-C33-ED77-FE368.png [/url]

Im skiing at Crested Butte right now. Drove through westcliffe on Saturday. Love that down, and yes the snow coverage was beautiful.

I could stare at the mountains that run to west all day, The mountains that run to the west.

I agree. I’d honestly say the wet mountains/wet mountain valley is my favorite areas of CO.

[wxman57]

Here it comes for real, this time! Oh, sure, some will say it's just the GFS hour 366 again playing games

[gpsnowman]

Here it comes for real, this time! Oh, sure, some will say it's just the GFS hour 366 again playing games

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020012812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_61.png

And this is the second storm after next week! Keep the faith!!

[weatherdude1108]

.58” last night. 2.64” month to date.

I think I'm somewhere in that range. I know I have gotten at least four half-inch events, I haven't been keeping track of exact amounts.

All I know is my backyard ponds with a half inch now. Mostly dormant vegetation, although stuff growing since it's been so friggin warm!

[Brent]

The Thursday Night system is nothing but 40s and rain now on the NAM

[Cerlin]

The Thursday Night system is nothing but 40s and rain now on the NAM

I’m shooocked.

[Brent]

Icon for next Wednesday the other models so far are a dry cold

[orangeblood]

What an extremely pathetic winter this is turning into....nothing is breaking our way! Now it appears almost all factors for cold aren't showing up 1) No SSW likely 2) MJO is now skipping the cold 1-2-3 phases and swinging back through warm 3) and the big kick in the you know what - despite the massive AAM spike, the high latitude westerlies are not easing . Maybe an brief cold shot but nothing appears sustainable!!!

[orangeblood]

But the biggest crux of the entire pattern is the massively strong PV in the Arctic....the PV is on lock down!!! Really good news for sea ice, not good for us lower latitude peps

[harp]

Well, the GFS isn't totally discouraging for you Texas folks....

[weatherdude1108]

But the biggest crux of the entire pattern is the massively strong PV in the Arctic....the PV is on lock down!!! Really good news for sea ice, not good for us lower latitude peps

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPYgW3SWAAAM4Hj?format=png&name=900x900

I guess the silver lining of the PV is sea ice preservation, which, in theory should sustain the cold air (feedback loop), which I'd think would help with future cold spells in the lower latitudes(?), whether it is this year or next.

It is amazing though with as cold as it's been up there, especially in the Yukon and Siberia regions, that the dense cold air hasn't been able to budge much. Thank you westerlies(?)!

[Brent]

Well, the GFS isn't totally discouraging for you Texas folks....

Wake me when it's not 300 hours out

[orangeblood]

But the biggest crux of the entire pattern is the massively strong PV in the Arctic....the PV is on lock down!!! Really good news for sea ice, not good for us lower latitude peps

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPYgW3SWAAAM4Hj?format=png&name=900x900

I guess the silver lining of the PV is sea ice preservation, which, in theory should sustain the cold air (feedback loop), which I'd think would help with future cold spells in the lower latitudes(?), whether it is this year or next.

It is amazing though with as cold as it's been up there, especially in the Yukon and Siberia regions, that the dense cold air hasn't been able to budge much. Thank you westerlies(?)!

Yep, with how warm the Arctic has been over the past few years, it should not be all that surprising Mother Nature is balancing itself out in this manner! typically with patterns such as this, the strong Polar Jet won't have a lot of "bends" in it so to speak preventing any of the bitterly cold air south. Also, in a strong Polar Jet regime, North America gets flooded with warmer Pacific Air scoring out any Arctic Air that gets into the continent.

[gpsnowman]

The Thursday Night system is nothing but 40s and rain now on the NAM

Ahhhh yes. More chilly rain. We can't even get a true COLD rain in the thirties here anymore much less a true winter storm. Once upon a time the talk was cold rain at 33 just to tease us. What an absolute pisser of a winter.