Texas Winter 2025-2026

[HockeyTx82]

Is there not much snow pack to the north? It'll modify quite a bit and by the time it gets to us it'll be a warm front.

[Stratton23]

snowpack is running near normal to our north, so its pretty decent

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is there not much snow pack to the north? It'll modify quite a bit and by the time it gets to us it'll be a warm front.

The images havent fully loaded on TT yet, but i imagine the trough doesnt dig down very far and much of it gets shunted to the east. Still provides very cold shallow air on the model run, but the main core goes east. Still far out for that, but what isnt far out is the cross-polar flow. It's showing cross polar flow within 7 days.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS has a monster 576 MB alaskan ridge, at least we know their will be a - EPO in place, one step of the puzzle is down, hopefully we can get more of a neutral PNA, though wouldnt mind a weak - PNA either

After the 20th the MJO will be in P7. That will be the step after to get more of the central conus cold.

Is it still going to move through 7 rapidly? I hope it slows.

[Stratton23]

This euro run looks like its about to be very very cold

[Belmer]

snowpack is running near normal to our north, so its pretty decent

It's actually below normal. It's mid January and there's no snow on the ground in Denver, Chicago or much of the Plains. Only decent snow still on the ground is in the Upper Midwest/Northeast and across the Rockies.



Oddly enough, this is what the map looked like 4 years ago to the day. We know how that year played out the next month (also a La Niña).




Not a lot of support for any meaningful snowpack to build across the Central and Northern Plains the next 7-10 days, which means the air will modify a good bit should any cold air build in our source region. Rain would be nice at this point.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!

[Stratton23]

Love that look! Bring it on lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Is there not much snow pack to the north? It'll modify quite a bit and by the time it gets to us it'll be a warm front.

[Harp.1]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

But is it dry? That’s the question!

[Stratton23]

Way too far out for that lol, but the fact the euro is even showing that kind of airmass, does make my eyebrows raise, considering it does the best with handeling upper air patterns ( kaybe not arctic air though lol )

[Ntxw]

GFS has a monster 576 MB alaskan ridge, at least we know their will be a - EPO in place, one step of the puzzle is down, hopefully we can get more of a neutral PNA, though wouldnt mind a weak - PNA either

After the 20th the MJO will be in P7. That will be the step after to get more of the central conus cold.

Is it still going to move through 7 rapidly? I hope it slows.

Yes the models starts to make a turn in P7 which is typically a signal of slowing down. MJO tends to slow in the MC and WPAC because globally that's where the warmest waters are in the tropics in the world. A slow in P7 and weakening and amplifying into the IO phases brings some of our most active weather.

[Ntxw]

Way too far out for that lol, but the fact the euro is even showing that kind of airmass, does make my eyebrows raise, considering it does the best with handeling upper air patterns ( kaybe not arctic air though lol )

It is a good sign, but for me still 300+ hours out. Like others here, checking boxes in the medium term to set it up will give a little more confidence. After the 20th we'll start getting into the range with some pieces in place. Optimism for sure though.

On another note, we got another day or two of this ongoing torch. The fronts will start coming and chipping away, at least anecdotally it will start to feel more like winter beyond the 15th being near or slightly below normal.

[TomballEd]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

Can you post the 850 mb anomaly and precip maps?

~30F below normal puts us in SETX very close to freezing. I prefer deeper cold and precip. BUt I won't say no to a well forecast ice storm where only essential workers will be driving and hopefully driving at a safe speed. Getting me a snow day (ice day) from school is important to me.

[gpsnowman]

12Z Euro drops the hammer, Barney Colors are back, its been awhile!!!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1768305600/1769450400-Xd6weAFO9Wk.png

I'm out of town Jan 26-29. I'm sure I will miss a blizzard while away

[txtwister78]

This is the time period I had been watching (late month) because as Ntxw just mentioned you needed to check some boxes first before just watching model runs alone when those variables were never really in play (MJO, teleconnections impact etc).

We may now be entering that phase/window. Yes, things can still change obviously 300 hours out but at least we have some signals to point to in our favor for "real" cold down the road that we really haven't had throughout this winter.

[Cpv17]

That Texans defense is naaaasstttyyy!!

Enjoy while it lasts. The Pats are going to manhandle CJ...

Every team does. The OL is trash.

[Stratton23]

GEFS/ EPS look like they have the MJO slowing to a crawl in P7

[Harp.1]

GEFS/ EPS look like they have the MJO slowing to a crawl in P7

Is that good?

[Gotwood]

This is the time period I had been watching (late month) because as Ntxw just mentioned you needed to check some boxes first before just watching model runs alone when those variables were never really in play (MJO, teleconnections impact etc).

We may now be entering that phase/window. Yes, things can still change obviously 300 hours out but at least we have some signals to point to in our favor for "real" cold down the road that we really haven't had throughout this winter.

I’m praying at the very least for some rain. It feels like forever since it last rained.