Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Yep Canadian is definitely cold, shifts the the cold vortex out of Alaska/Canada and puts it in the Great lakes, much closer to the lower 48. GFS has been bonkers with how the pacific is working out. It has given a different solution just about every run for events within 5 days (this probably means a pattern change is afoot and it's still trying to put it together). UKmet has been fairly consistent but data for it is rather limited. Lets see what the Euro has in store today!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What about the dec 1990 cold wave near xmas.it was a big one also.I remember it being 80that day, then the front moved thru and iah dropped to 16 the very next morning.it would have been much colder but we were socked in the clouds unlike 89

I remember that one well as well. I was helping my dad in the yard and it was 75ish in Longview then the storm blew through and it dropped to 24 in a few hours and the rain changed to heavy sleet and freezing rain. It then turned over to all snow. It took 40 minutes to go from our house to my grandparents 5 miles away.

[Portastorm]

What about the dec 1990 cold wave near xmas.it was a big one also.I remember it being 80that day, then the front moved thru and iah dropped to 16 the very next morning.it would have been much colder but we were socked in the clouds unlike 89

I remember that one well as well. I was helping my dad in the yard and it was 75ish in Longview then the storm blew through and it dropped to 24 in a few hours and the rain changed to heavy sleet and freezing rain. It then turned over to all snow. It took 40 minutes to go from our house to my grandparents 5 miles away.

Ditto ... here in Austin, I remember the temps dropping from the 70s in the morning to the 20s by late afternoon. We had some light frozen precip ... nothing too dramatic ... but what was so impressive was how quickly the temps dropped and then stayed brutally cold for several days.

Edit update: On another note, I'm watching the 12z Euro roll out like a lot of you probably are. It takes that ULL straight across the state early next week (Midland to Waco to College Station) line. Then, by midweek, an airmass from Canada plunges south-southeast towards the state. For sure, early next week should provide some good rainfall totals for a number of us if this verifies.

[richtrav]

Lengthy read that I'll post in three parts. But it's worth the read because it provides plenty of historical perspective courtesy of Houston Chronicle outdoors writer Shannon Thompkins. This 2003 story recalls the 1983 and 1989 freezes along the Texas Gulf Coast. Amazing tales told below...

The Texas coast was locked in one of the most severe, persistent freezes in more than a century.

Christmas morning, Houston recorded a low of 11 degrees. Galveston registered 14 degrees. It was 6 below zero in Dallas, and 13 in Del Rio.

All the temps sound about right except Dallas, which didn't drop to -6 in 1983 (not even in 1989). The entire coast should have also been impacted pretty hard by the '62 freeze. But probably for general death, destruction and misery 1983 would be the worst on the coast due to the unusually long duration of the event, even 1899 or 1930 weren't as long

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro @ 168 hours, like the 12z CMC which suggested wintry precip, shows an upper level system to our west and moving east after the cold airmass is in place. The interesting thing though is that King Euro is agreeing about upper level energy with the Crazy Canadian, at least on the 12z run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Edit update: Fixed link because I am a doofus! Thanks Ntxw!! As he said, system opening into a wave but certainly possible to be creating wintry mischief.

[Ntxw]

^ That link is 0z Portastorm

12z is rather interesting, wave opens up as cool air is in place and pulled back. Precip is breaking out in the Big Bend area of Texas. If I wanted recall a similar setup, there was a storm last season in early January (9th-10th) that looks very alike with a strong vortex in the great lakes.

January 9th of last year

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011/us0109.php

Not saying it's exactly the same, just the kind of setup

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

^ That link is 0z Portastorm

12z is rather interesting, wave opens up as cool air is in place and pulled back. Precip is breaking out in the Big Bend area of Texas. If I wanted recall a similar setup, there was a storm last season in early January that looks very alike with a strong vortex in the great lakes.

What's it showing for the Monday/Tuesday system?

[Ntxw]

What's it showing for the Monday/Tuesday system?

It's warmer with snow confined to I-20 from Midland to Abilene.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What's it showing for the Monday/Tuesday system?

It's warmer with snow confined to I-20 from Midland to Abilene.

Thank you!

[Ntxw]

Fantasy Euro on boat with -EPO helping to dislodge/lower heights and the arctic hounds! Take with grain of salt



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Notice not one, but two important ridges. One in Alaska, the other building into Greenland.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What about the dec 1990 cold wave near xmas.it was a big one also.I remember it being 80that day, then the front moved thru and iah dropped to 16 the very next morning.it would have been much colder but we were socked in the clouds unlike 89

Our pipes busted that year

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Omega Block in the Gulf of Alaska and the Rex Block in Greenland... very nice for an Arctic intrusion!

[aggiecutter]

^ That link is 0z Portastorm

12z is rather interesting, wave opens up as cool air is in place and pulled back. Precip is breaking out in the Big Bend area of Texas. If I wanted recall a similar setup, there was a storm last season in early January (9th-10th) that looks very alike with a strong vortex in the great lakes.

January 9th of last year

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011/us0109.php

Not saying it's exactly the same, just the kind of setup

This is what happened at my house last January the 9th.

http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79 ... I_7612.mp4

[ThunderSleetDreams]

^ That link is 0z Portastorm

12z is rather interesting, wave opens up as cool air is in place and pulled back. Precip is breaking out in the Big Bend area of Texas. If I wanted recall a similar setup, there was a storm last season in early January (9th-10th) that looks very alike with a strong vortex in the great lakes.

January 9th of last year

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2011/us0109.php

Not saying it's exactly the same, just the kind of setup

This is what happened at my house last January the 9th.

http://s269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79 ... I_7612.mp4

Beautiful!

[orangeblood]

Omega Block in the Gulf of Alaska and the Rex Block in Greenland... very nice for an Arctic intrusion!

And a nice fresh snowpack laid down by the storms moving through the plains next weekend, according to the Euro!!!

Following up with what Ntxw just mentioned: The -EPO seems to be another huge factor in where all of this Arctic Air ends of over the next few weeks. -EPO = Arctic Air aimed more towards central US, +EPO = Arctic air gets bundled up across Western Canada into the Pacific Northwest for the time being.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cosgrove still hinting at an Arctic Express soon.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weekend-weather-forecast-for-houston-and-vicinity-friday-january-6-2012

[aggiecutter]

Fantasy Euro on boat with -EPO helping to dislodge/lower heights and the arctic hounds! Take with grain of salt

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/2620/ecmwf.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Notice not one, but two important ridges. One in Alaska, the other building into Greenland.

500mb anomolies for above period. It really brings everything into perspective of what "could" happen.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php? ... h_id=52147

[Rgv20]

If the 12zECMWF were to verify for Friday (Jan 13) it would be just a cold raw day for Central, SE and South Texas. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 30s. Even some hints of some wintery precipitation for the SA and Austin area...

[Ptarmigan]

What about the dec 1990 cold wave near xmas.it was a big one also.I remember it being 80that day, then the front moved thru and iah dropped to 16 the very next morning.it would have been much colder but we were socked in the clouds unlike 89

December 1990 freeze happened exactly one year after the 1989 freeze. It was primarily west of the Mississippi River. The 1990 freeze hit California hard.

December 1990
ENSO
Neutral

PDO
Cool (Negative)

NAO
1.1
Positive

AO
1.277
Positive

PNA
-1.32
Negative

I also remember the February 1989 freeze. It was a shallow, but prolonged freeze.

February 1989
ENSO
La Nina

PDO
Cool (Negative)

NAO
3.2
Positive

AO
3.279
Positive

PNA
-1.06
Negative

[weatherdude1108]

We'll take the rain! Then, it's a free-for-all what happens after the front moves through Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2012

RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT OF NM INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK AFTER FROPA AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AS WELL. CLOUDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS COMING OUT OF FAR NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT FROPA IS UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.