Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Rgv20]

Crazy Canadian wants to bring some winter fun to the Austin/San Antonio area...


0zCMC forecast valid for Wednesday Noon..

[wxman57]

Here's the 00Z Euro 24hr snowfall forecast for Texas next week. Map is valid midnight Wednesday to midnight Thursday. I sure miss summer...

[iorange55]

Well, the chances for winter weather seem a little less likely here in North Texas this upcoming week, but Austin might be in a better position come mid-week!

Plus we will be getting lots of rain and we can't really complain about that.

[Snowman67]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

STILL A FEW STRATO CU NEAR THE COAST...INLAND JUST HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY...A LITTLE
HIGHER THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND NE OVERNIGHT. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA AND CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY STRUGGLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THE HIGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY AND EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT GOING STATIONARY. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS MONDAY MORNING STARTS TO MOVE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN THEN AS THE PROFILE DESTABILIZES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND EXPECT TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EARLY BUT SPC HAS A SEE TEXT
IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND MAY HAVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH A MODERATE LLJ. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND INTO THE GULF SLOWING DOWN AND GOING QUASI-STATIONARY
TUESDAY-THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGING IN THE SOLUTIONS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER STRONG S/W DROPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
TOUGH TO THE WEST...ECMWF IS DEEPER AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA AND THE GFS IF MORE PROGRESSIVE/NOT AS DEEP AND OVER
WEST TEXAS. EXPECT THAT THE GULF WATERS WILL SEE PLENTY OF UPGLIDE
-RA CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA HELPING TO
KEEP THE AREA COOLER DURING THE DAYTIME AND WARMER AT NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AND LOW OVER THE NORTH. GOING INTO
THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS
WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS
YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE
FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.

Still a lot of uncertainty...

[Patriot12]

Well, the chances for winter weather seem a little less likely here in North Texas this upcoming week, but Austin might be in a better position come mid-week!

Plus we will be getting lots of rain and we can't really complain about that.

I've already told my family that if the forecast holds for Austin getting snow, we're packing up the car, heading up there, getting a hotel room, and act like we're in Colorado.

[jerryh421]

I hope I get to see some winter weather this season. I live north of Houston and right now that seems unlikely

[Ntxw]

Yes, it does appear the Euro has been fairly consistent painting snow for the northern Rio Grande region as well as the hill country and not that far from San Antonio. Canadian has been fairly consistent about that as well, GFS has pretty much nothing (<-toss it). I say we throw that out and give Portastorm half a foot and go on our merry way!

Speaking of, I bet he hasn't been posting to contain his excitement~

[dhweather]

The FWD NWS has backed off rain completely with the second system:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
504 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS CIRRUS MOVES
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS TODAY THEN LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY AT ALL AIRPORTS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012/
THE LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE HAVE MOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...MAKING FOR A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT. SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE NORM TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT AT
LEAST FEEL WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS A
BIT LOW FOR THE HIGHS NEAR THE RED RIVER...SO BUMPED UP THE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE
ELSEWHERE. ALL IN ALL...THERE ARE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

ATTENTION IS HIGHEST ON THE SYSTEM APPROACHING ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR A FEW AREAS OF RAINFALL TO BEGIN. MODEL
BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE INITIAL
RAINFALL TO BE MIXED WITH SLEET...WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS SHOULD BE A DECENT
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON NEW YEARS EVE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF THE RAINFALL QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ON MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. NEW YEARS DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.

GENERALLY...THE REST OF THE WEEK IS DRY...WITH CAVEATS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOBE OF
ENERGY PASSES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ENERGY AND LIFT SHOULD
BRING PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE KEPT AWAY NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE
RAIN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR ANY MODEL SIGNALS THAT WOULD INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS...THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE RETAINED
THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ONLY ON
WEDNESDAY. 14

&&

[Ntxw]

Looks like GFS is coming around for storm #2, is not dry and wet/cold. Get a little more moisture return and we have a Texas style winter storm.

Edit: Image

[Portastorm]

Yes, it does appear the Euro has been fairly consistent painting snow for the northern Rio Grande region as well as the hill country and not that far from San Antonio. Canadian has been fairly consistent about that as well, GFS has pretty much nothing (<-toss it). I say we throw that out and give Portastorm half a foot and go on our merry way!

Speaking of, I bet he hasn't been posting to contain his excitement~

I've been down this road before many, many times. It is waaaaay too early to get excited. While I generally bow to King Euro on a daily basis, I consider the Canadian crazy most times. Unless, of course, it agrees with the King.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will be closely analyzing the computer models this weekend and look for more posts soon.

[Ntxw]

I've been down this road before many, many times. It is waaaaay too early to get excited. While I generally bow to King Euro on a daily basis, I consider the Canadian crazy most times. Unless, of course, it agrees with the King.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will be closely analyzing the computer models this weekend and look for more posts soon.

Lucy is coming for you! Seriously though, how many times can you count on your hands that the Euro has given more than 1 run that's not super long range accumulating snow for the hill country?! I don't recall any if that!

[Portastorm]

I've been down this road before many, many times. It is waaaaay too early to get excited. While I generally bow to King Euro on a daily basis, I consider the Canadian crazy most times. Unless, of course, it agrees with the King.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will be closely analyzing the computer models this weekend and look for more posts soon.

Lucy is coming for you! Seriously though, how many times can you count on your hands that the Euro has given more than 1 run that's not super long range accumulating snow for the hill country?! I don't recall any if that!

I honestly cannot remember seeing that in the recent past. It's been many years probably.

What the GFS does will be interesting. Does it come to the King's scenario or stay dry? Your post about today's 12z run will be a trend worth watching.

Edit update: I took a close look at the ensembles. The plot thickens. The GFS op runs are mainly consistent with its ensembles and same with the Euro. Clearly one of these models is going to be a big winner and the other a big wiener!

[Ntxw]

Alright folks, welcome to the start of December! One of the three designated magical months!

I'm pretty sure many here are having the blues (or seeing red flashes given the warmth coming). Except Wxman57 of course he's probably loving it. No way to put it but December is going to start out warm, no denying it. Near record warmth in fact.

Before we all lose hope and go cliff diving, I am going to try and present some hope for us cold mongering bunch. First of all this WILL NOT be the non-winter of 2011-2012. El Nino, La Nina, or El Nono when you have a powerful signal (AO) that is usually consistently 2 standard deviations below normal, the magic will happen in any enso state. It is always the wild card to any winter. And for the record my prediction of El Nino peaking at 1.3c+ is clearly going to be unbelievably wrong, and so now it appears the drivers will be the teleconnections.

Analog situation

Believe it or not the collective analog years have worked quite well showing a cool October, milder November. The key here is not to use any particular analog as no two seasons are the same but to look at them as whole for an overall look (I learned this over the past two months). And it appears the blockier winters have become best fits (1957, 1968, 1976, 2002, 2003, and 2009).

Now the same patterns does not always result in the same outcome. That being said December looks promising! This is what December looked like in those years.

Cold southern and eastern tier of the country.

What does it mean for the Merry month of December?

I firmly believe we will flip the PNA signal this month. It's just been negative for too long and the laws of balance says it should! I have seen enough arctic blocking this season to believe it will continue. But it's going to take time, often my biggest mistake any season is expecting a pattern change to instantly happen. It doesn't work like that. Between now and the 10th, Texas is going to be warm. I hope the flip occurs shortly after then because there is a lot of cold air to tap into. Aside from that I also believe between the 15th and 31st, Texas will also be under threat once or twice by winter storms.

On December first this was the thought I put out for this month. Overall I think it was a very good call. DFW saw two measurable snow events this month and the latter was a special one. I can't post the temperature anomalies to verify with thoughts and NOAA because for some reason the data is missing per the site, they must be having issues like the model page. The PNA flipped at the end of the month and the AO pretty much was negative the entire time.

January

Majority of the analogs suggest a cool to cold January. 2002, 2004, 2010, and 2011 are the best fits regarding the current blocking regime. There is a risk that the very coldest air may slide just to the east of Texas in that the PNA is too positive anchoring in the rockies, but regardless it will be a stormy pattern. The AO should relax as said in previous posts which gives way to a more seasonably warm period after the first week (again storminess may abate any further warming). A few winter events may threaten Texas especially early and late in the month.

A very important key this month will be the major stratospheric warming event that is forecasted to occur the next week or two as mentioned by Rgv20. This event will assure that the AO will tank once more mid to late month. Depending on the state of the AO, the blocking of winter 2012-2013 will continue. After looking at the ensembles and monthly forecast models, there is strong evidence the PV will exit Asia and set up along the Hudson Bay-Davis strait region. When the EPO goes negative the next 3-6 weeks, look for continuing arctic intrusions.

Some of the analogs for February are very impressive but that's something for us to look at next month.

[Portastorm]

Here is a graphical representation of what Ntxw and I are talking about. The first image is for 12z on Friday, Jan. 4th and is from last night's 0z GFS run. The second image is for 12z on Friday, Jan. 4th, but from the recently issued 12z run. See the differences? Seems like the GFS *may* be trending towards King Euro. Something to watch.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Stormlover2012]

cmc out yet

[Portastorm]

cmc out yet

I don't think so. Probably around 12 noon.

[Rgv20]

First graphics already out....still good news for you Porta! CMC has remain consistent with the ECMWF and UKMET..

12zCMC 500mb heights forecast for Thursday Morning..

[Ntxw]

I think the GFS scenario is going to be terribly wrong. It tries to send the kicker right into the PNA ridge, therefore no amplifying it down to California/SW. It just doesn't work like that, the other models make much more sense diving the shortwave to the south around the block.

Edit: If the Canadian is correct, Austin will see it's greatest snowfall in over a decade

[ndale]

I think the GFS scenario is going to be terribly wrong. It tries to send the kicker right into the PNA ridge, therefore no amplifying it down to California/SW. It just doesn't work like that, the other models make much more sense diving the shortwave to the south around the block.

Edit: If the Canadian is correct, Austin will see it's greatest snowfall in over a decade

Since I am bad at reading models, how much is the Canadian predicting.

Edit: As of now Austin nws is going with the gfs model.

[Ntxw]

Since I am bad at reading models, how much is the Canadian predicting.

Maybe 2-4"? Officially the city hasn't seen much if any for a long time so that statement is a little misleading but still true!