Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Rgv20]

Here we go again...12GFS-Parallel settles a 1048mb High down to South Texas next Thursday and has temperatures in the low 30s with light snow in the Rio Grande Valley

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I don't think that this is going to rival the November cold snap. Maybe one or two lows right at or just below freezing.

You would think a 1060MB high would rival the historical strong events, like 1989. This one is not remotely close. I think I hear Dolly Parton coming.

Well, to be fair, what happened in December 1989 and the current synoptic pattern are very different. In 1989 high pressure built straight down into Texas and there was not a strong and wet southwest flow like there is now. But I do agree that if even the high coming down into Montana is 1050+ mb, you'd think we would see colder temperatures than what is currently being forecast. If guidance verifies then this will be a good lesson for all of us from which to learn.

This is a very different upper air set up than some of the historical outbreaks. The high is there, but the upper air flow is taking the scenic route through the West rather than diving directly down the Plains. The physics of the dense cold air on the Plains is bringing it down here rather than it being pushed down by the upper air flow. This is allowing Pacific moisture to overrun the cold dense air while typically we see northwest flow behind these fronts which brings in much colder air aloft. I cannot recall another situation like this where we have a very dense surface air mass and a pretty warm and moist upper air flow so I am not confident in any solution. My best guess is for the surface cold to build in further east than anticipated based purely on the strength of the 1060mb high allowing freezing rain to occur a bit further east than models show.

The pattern from 1983 was similar to this one. Strong westerlies for the upper air pattern crossing the southern plains but the high came down anyway. Now as far as the northerly winds at the 500 mb level in canada that push the HP in our direction, the winds may be weaker this time around. Still think it will be colder than progged but it will be fascinating if this cold isnt memorable.

[dhweather]

[mmbrown10]

Snowing in amarillo only expected less than an inch by the end of the night. We have already hit an inch and is suppose to continue well into the evening.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps are still dropping slowly into the mid 30s here under dense cloud cover. The forecast called for us to be partly cloudy by now and in the mid 40s. Dew points are around 30. Not sure I see 40 here and I can almost promise we will not see the forecast of 45 and mostly sunny. The high is supposed to still be to our north NYD morning with temps just below freezing. We will have easterly winds so we should have neutral advection so only the ways to warm the surface air would be solar radiation or heavy precip bringing down warm air from above neither will be the case. So my thinking will is if precip moves in before noon light icing is possible. This all is predicated on temps falling to 32 or lower or near that with dew points in the 20s that morning. Hope I made some sense , but that is my reasoning as to why I think there is a shot at freezing drizzle is possible in E TX NYD before noon.

[ronyan]

Oh, I didn't expect it to match other 1060 type outbreaks but a couple of subfreezing days would've been more logical given the synoptic setup, source region, time of year, etc. Then again, this reiterates just how many factors have to come together for winter weather/arctic cold in these low latitudes.

The great thing about it being December 30th, is its only December 30th...we still have a long winter ahead, actually that Arctic HP coming down next week looks VERY intriguing.

It does for the moment on the 12z Parallel run with a 1056mb high sitting in the central plains on 8th, still plenty of time to watch that one. You're right though, still plenty of winter to go this year, just hate to see a good 1060mb high go to waste.

[Portastorm]

While some of you are already dismissing this current event, there are portions of Texas which include S2K members which are experiencing winter weather and under various watches/warnings. NWS San Angelo now reporting that icing is occurring in Sweetwater on elevated surfaces.

[Ralph's Weather]

The pattern from 1983 was similar to this one. Strong westerlies for the upper air pattern crossing the southern plains but the high came down anyway. Now as far as the northerly winds at the 500 mb level in canada that push the HP in our direction, the winds may be weaker this time around. Still think it will be colder than progged but it will be fascinating if this cold isnt memorable.

I looked at it earlier and we have a trough over CA while 1983 did not which allowed the AK ridge to build up to 582 on the AK/Yukon border while the same area has heights around 564 this time. Also during the '83 outbreak the PV was over the northern Plains and this time it is north of the Hudson Bay. The PV location looks to be the biggest difference though there are many. We were hoping for something historic and it has not played out. We still look to be colder than the models are showing and many areas could get some light icing. The rest of the month looks unsettled much like a colder version of December. By late in the month strat warming could bring the PV south allowing for more sustained cold. That plus the ever active southern stream could spell an interesting end to winter.

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh, I didn't expect it to match other 1060 type outbreaks but a couple of subfreezing days would've been more logical given the synoptic setup, source region, time of year, etc. Then again, this reiterates just how many factors have to come together for winter weather/arctic cold in these low latitudes.

The great thing about it being December 30th, is its only December 30th...we still have a long winter ahead, actually that Arctic HP coming down next week looks VERY intriguing.

It does for the moment on the 12z Parallel run with a 1056mb high sitting in the central plains on 8th, still plenty of time to watch that one. You're right though, still plenty of winter to go this year, just hate to see a good 1060mb high go to waste.

It gets to Texas at 1050mb which would be incredible though unlikely. Shift that a bit north and you got a major snow storm for the state.

[perk]

Here we go again...12GFS-Parallel settles a 1048mb High down to South Texas next Thursday and has temperatures in the low 30s with light snow in the Rio Grande Valley

I'll believe it if the models show that next Tuesday.

[Tig70]

Down to 20 degrees now. That's 5 degrees colder than the 00Z GFS had us at this time (assuming I did the meteogram correctly, that is).

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 16Z RAP (on WeatherBELL) is showing temperatures ranging from 27-29 across northern Texas (including DFW) around 4:00AM tomorrow. There would still be a few hours for the temperatures to drop further, and the forecast low is 30, per the FW NWS for DFW, so they may be underestimating the cold for tomorrow.

[ronyan]

Down to 20 degrees now. That's 5 degrees colder than the 00Z GFS had us at this time (assuming I did the meteogram correctly, that is).

I did the meteogram for Lubbock on the 0z GFS and got close, -3.1C @ 18z today (noon CST). That equates to about 26.4F

[Lagreeneyes03]

Here we go again...12GFS-Parallel settles a 1048mb High down to South Texas next Thursday and has temperatures in the low 30s with light snow in the Rio Grande Valley

Well let's see if it materializes. For some laughs I look at my phone's weather apps for long range forecasts and they put my area at 56 next Wednesday and 68 degrees next Thursday.

That said, in looking at the Wunderground weather stations locally, it does seem that I-35 may be the cutoff for any frozen precip if the trend holds. Our forecast high for the day was 43, and stations W of 35 are all below 40 and east is mostly low to mid 40's with a couple of 45's and 46's in Collin co.

[ronyan]

Temps are bitter in the Panhandle now, 10F in Amarillo with a windchill of -9F. GFS 0z last night had them at 21F at this time, not so great on the verification.

The 12z run has them only getting to 12F for the low tonight.

[PineyWoods]

One thing I've noticed in the last week is that our forecasted high's here in Tyler have all been about 5-8 degrees cooler. Sitting at 36° at 12pm and we are supposed to hit a high of 48° today. Think the slow erosion of the cloud deck here has helped keep us cooler.

[TexasF6]

EURO running now...trace amounts liquid/snowfall still along line of west of IH-35...

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z NAM and GFS show temps in the mid 30s NYD morning with DPs below freezing in E TX. The NAM brings precip in before sunrise and the GFS closer to mid morning. The NAM has a better handle on what is currently happening so I will lean towards its solution. This is definitely a situation that calls for watching current conditions and waiting on short range models, the global models do not have the resolution to handle this type situation.

[srainhoutx]

Conditions across West, NW and W Central Texas are deteriorating rather quickly as light snow is falling in Amarillo. Lubbock is reporting a 20 vehicle accident due to light icing. Midland/Odessa is reporting light icing across their area. San Angelo is reporting icing in Sweetwater. The models were not forecasting much of any precipitation today and if they were, it was extremely insignificant.

[TexasF6]

The 12Z NAM and GFS show temps in the mid 30s NYD morning with DPs below freezing in E TX. The NAM brings precip in before sunrise and the GFS closer to mid morning. The NAM has a better handle on what is currently happening so I will lean towards its solution. This is definitely a situation that calls for watching current conditions and waiting on short range models, the global models do not have the resolution to handle this type situation.

Just watched the NCEP NAM move the snowline eastward.....very interesting...Dallas gets in on the action too!!!