Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Tejas89]

Heavy rain and high near 50 for Buffalo NY today. Something seems really wrong about that for mid January. lol.

Back to our forecast, looks like early next week will be pipe and plant wrapping weather. What’s the window for the front for N Texas? We’re out of town later this week.

[Itryatgolf]

Cold is guaranteed. No denying that imo. Winter storm chances are still up in the air. The gfs did trend towards the euro somewhat. 12z runs will be very telling and hopefully by 12z Wednesday will know more

[Ntxw]

Icon is running, lets not forget there's a snowstorm coming this Friday for Oklahoma.

[Tireman4]

Icon is running, lets not forget there's a snowstorm coming this Friday for Oklahoma.

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OK, a question for you, our long time long range guy ( who we trust and respect), what is your gut feeling about next week. I know we are still too far out for a nail down forecast.

[Ntxw]

Icon is running, lets not forget there's a snowstorm coming this Friday for Oklahoma.

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OK, a question for you, our long time long range guy ( who we trust and respect), what is your gut feeling about next week. I know we are still too far out for a nail down forecast.

Right now I like the idea of coldest since 2021 for the coming blast. Also favoring based on ensembles of a secondary push to reinforce it late next week. More often than not something rides the arctic boundary and gives someone somewhere high ratio snow. That's for North Texas.

I think there's a shot in central and SE Texas at maybe frozen precip along the front. Speed of front matters, especially if it's colder than forecast. Late Jan and early Feb gulf coast region might be in play once cross polar flow is set up.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON is faster than its previous runs. Hard front Saturday evening for NTX.

[Ntxw]

DFW is single digits by midnight Sun night. Monday barely gets above 10F.

[Ntxw]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

[rwfromkansas]

A former student attends the college I went to in KS and works at a Kohls store. The whole town is basically shut down. So many roads closed due to significant drifting.

The biggest problem is with so much snow and winds continuing, it's like a ground blizzard even after the snow ends.

They will get above freezing for a bit but then get cold again, so luckily not much melting of the snowpack before the real cold front comes down.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is single digits by midnight Sun night. Monday barely gets above 10F.

More interesting to me is that you can see some shorter range changes towards the 00z Euro. The Pacific cutoff shifts SW towards Hawaii, and the energy that the Euro turns into our winter storm is stronger and more consolidated on this run of the ICON when coming onshore in the Pacific NW. I think we are on to something and would expect similar trends on the 12z GFS.

[Portastorm]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

I'm a bit skeptical about the ICON at this point. Seems too extreme like the crazy Canadian. Has two-thirds of the state in single digits or teens for 24+ hours. I wish I could see its projection for cloud cover because I might buy into it with a thick deck of clouds over the same area. But the CAA it's showing ... meh ... I'm not buying into it yet.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is single digits by midnight Sun night. Monday barely gets above 10F.

More interesting to me is that you can see some shorter range changes towards the 00z Euro. The Pacific cutoff shifts SW towards Hawaii, and the energy that the Euro turns into our winter storm is stronger and more consolidated on this run of the ICON when coming onshore in the Pacific NW. I think we are on to something and would expect similar trends on the 12z GFS.

You can now see the changes at the surface as the run plays out.

00z for 00z Monday



12z for 00z Monday



Keep on trending!

[Ntxw]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

I'm a bit skeptical about the ICON at this point. Seems too extreme like the crazy Canadian. Has two-thirds of the state in single digits or teens for 24+ hours. I wish I could see its projection for cloud cover because I might buy into it with a thick deck of clouds over the same area. But the CAA it's showing ... meh ... I'm not buying into it yet.

Understandable! Would like to see some snow cover to be more confident. But I will say the theme across all the guidance is trending colder. This is true both upstream in the shorter range and for us. I noted last night that Canada is beginning to fill with the cold air mass and should the trends move in that direction, we'll get some more wild temp maps. These runs are becoming more critical given the players are on the field.

[Portastorm]

Fair enough Ntxw. Agreed! Meanwhile, it seems Ryan Maue is all in on next week ...

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[bubba hotep]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

I'm a bit skeptical about the ICON at this point. Seems too extreme like the crazy Canadian. Has two-thirds of the state in single digits or teens for 24+ hours. I wish I could see its projection for cloud cover because I might buy into it with a thick deck of clouds over the same area. But the CAA it's showing ... meh ... I'm not buying into it yet.

It keeps DFW under 20F for 60+ hrs and is still going at the end of the run. And that is with no snowpack lol

[cheezyWXguy]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

Looking at the 500mb pattern and how its evolved on the icon since the 12z run yesterday, it looks to be slowly trending toward the faster and more amplified solution. Today's 12z run has the main trough digging into the four corners at 18z on 1/15, whereas last nights 0z had it in Idaho/Oregon, and the previous 12z had it at the Washington/Canada border. Still a ways to go to match the euro, or even the gfs, but it looks to be a step in the right direction.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think were pretty comfortable with the cold coming, so this post will be nit picking a bit, but here we go.

So one thing im currently looking at is when the brunt of the air will come down. Currently saying Monday for Texas folk, and by looking at the upper air, why cant a large chunk of it come down Saturday night/Sunday am? Looking at the GFS, the 500 MB on Friday evening has the pipeline of cold aiming straight into Texas, but the cold stays north until a S/W comes by Monday am?

Speaking of this wave thats really bringing down the cold.... The source is very cold and its going to slam a 1051MB high straight down the spine of the Rockies, over fresh snow cover and temps in Houston (my barometer) are showing only 20's? Hmmmm. Thats the analog we should look at for temps. I see problems with that. Typically, the trough doesnt fully race down into Texas and it can bring hard freezes to Houston, this one is projected to slam the HP all the way into Texas.

[Rgv20]

It is a relatively dry run of the ICON but the difference is the weak disturbance is pooling lift along the arctic boundary where it was much less so in prior runs.

Man is that cold across the state.

I'm a bit skeptical about the ICON at this point. Seems too extreme like the crazy Canadian. Has two-thirds of the state in single digits or teens for 24+ hours. I wish I could see its projection for cloud cover because I might buy into it with a thick deck of clouds over the same area. But the CAA it's showing ... meh ... I'm not buying into it yet.

12z ICON has the entire RGV in the mid 20s for most of the day Tuesday Jan 16th! I hope it is wrong as those temps and that long duration most of my plants will go bye bye!

Hopefully we get something like December 2022 where we got temperatures in the upper 20s for a few hours and mostly low 30s.

[bubba hotep]

LOL the 12z GFS trends the exact opposite and is more progressive and shears the s/w out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, with a trough or wave racing down, we could see strong frontgenis, which could produce some precip.