Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Seems like CenTex really misses the bulk of precip the past year or two.

[Portastorm]

Seems like CenTex really misses the bulk of precip the past year or two.

Alright, alright ... quit rubbing it in!

We did get about a half inch of snow on top of a half inch of ice back in February here at the Portastorm Weather Center. I even posted pictures to prove it!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ha, not rubbing it in... just an observation.

We've all been dry, but it seems like Houston Metro has seen the heavier totals as has Far East Tx and Arklatex area.

[Portastorm]

Ha, not rubbing it in... just an observation.

We've all been dry, but it seems like Houston Metro has seen the heavier totals as has Far East Tx and Arklatex area.

By the way, I encourage you to include your location and update your profile. It will be especially helpful when real weather happens in YOUR neck of the woods and you start posting about it ... you know, like snow/ice, etc.?!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Done!

Speaking of my area, check out the precip models.

[Portastorm]

Thank you ThunderSleetDreams ... and yes, it looks like y'all will be getting some plentiful rain in a few days.

[Portastorm]

Fantasy Euro on boat with -EPO helping to dislodge/lower heights and the arctic hounds! Take with grain of salt



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Notice not one, but two important ridges. One in Alaska, the other building into Greenland.

Unfortunately the 12z Euro ensembles don't support this operational run at all.



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[ThunderSleetDreams]

Too much smoke now from all models to ignore the possible arctic invasion from late January through February.

I think we'll see some heavy winter storms across the nation in March like past "late starting" Winters.

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately the 12z Euro ensembles don't support this operational run at all.

This is somewhat true. However, caveat is the pattern set up is still there (ridges). Also the spread in the ensembles both for GFS and Euro is quite noticeable beyond really 5-7 days, indicative of pattern changes! They aren't picking up cold fronts until within 5 days it seems lately at least these transient ones and will continue to struggle. But the trend we've been trying to pick up is when will the longer duration of cold take over!

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately the 12z Euro ensembles don't support this operational run at all.

You sure about that Portastorm?? The upper air pattern looks very similar with crazy above normal height rises over Western Alaska/Greenland (which usually dictates much below normal heights across the central conus) and shows a wide swath of below normal temperature values across all of western Canada into the northern plains, which is quite impressive this far out and usually equates to much lower temps than the mean forecast. Seems like there's plenty of support, imo!!

[Portastorm]

I'm sure about what I see from the temp anamolies in the above map, yeah. They (ensembles) don't match what the 12 operational Euro was showing.

Besides, I'm just making an observation ... next thing I know, you're going to be calling me a warm mongerer!

Personally, I'm still on board with our weather growing increasingly interesting starting Monday into February.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just want one solid shot of brutal winter weather.... give me an ice storm with a half inch of freezing rain and 3 inches of sleet and I'll call it a winter....

[Ntxw]

FWIW GFS still confuses me (different each run). It cuts out a chunk of the northern stream energy that the euro has (the potential wintry fun for southern region) and sends it out to sea in the Pacific! This being middle of next week. I'm surprised no one is shocked looking at the polar vortex forming in the midwest, we haven't seen many of those this winter! Legit cold snap.



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[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, its not picking up on a CONUS invasion to the south central... its wanting to split to the coasts. Makes no sense to me.

[Portastorm]

Well ... it is the GFS ... and the 18z GFS at that!

The "understanding" in weather circles is that the 18z GFS is the most unreliable of all its cycle runs. Whether it's an weather forum urban myth or truth, I honestly don't know. My experience in watching the model would confirm the former though.

Edit update: The most recent 5-day skill scores in terms of cycle runs suggest the following ranking in terms of accuracy:

1) 0z Euro
2) 12z Euro
3) 0z GFS
4) 12z GFS
5) 18z GFS
6) 6z GFS

Overall in terms of a 5-day skill score, King Euro rules with the UKMet second and the GFS is third.

[Rgv20]

My limited experience would be that the 06zGFS & 18zGFS make for some wacky runs especially in the longer range.

[Ntxw]

In all fairness, GFS is not all bad. It runs more often than the Uk or Euro so the chances of it screwing up is double as much as the other two if you look at it that way. But lately all of its runs have been susceptible to changes in the short range. It seems to pick up things in the long range trend wise pretty well. It was the first last week to depict an incoming trough this weekend/early next week albeit further west. I remember making a post and model images from it.



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V remember what Portastorm said about 18z!

[DonWrk]

I've seen continuous runs of the GFS showing snow for western and northern Texas about 4-5 days out. Is this not supported by any of the other models? Or is this one of those things when it's a day or so away it will just go poof and take it away?

[Portastorm]

I've seen continuous runs of the GFS showing snow for western and northern Texas about 4-5 days out. Is this not supported by any of the other models? Or is this one of those things when it's a day or so away it will just go poof and take it away?

Are you talking about the system early next week?

[DonWrk]

I've seen continuous runs of the GFS showing snow for western and northern Texas about 4-5 days out. Is this not supported by any of the other models? Or is this one of those things when it's a day or so away it will just go poof and take it away?

Are you talking about the system early next week?

Yes, maybe it's just the 18z runs. I was referring to the same map ntxw posted I just didn't happen to see his post. It just seems the past 2-3 days or so it's shown some wintry precip around.

EDIT: Also what is the difference in say an 18z run and a 0z run besides just the time? What variables effect it or make it differ from the other ones?