Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Now that I'm back at work and can look at things more closely, I just don't see any cold air moving out of Canada for the next couple of weeks. Euro indicates a weak front moving across Texas from west to east early next week, and another on the 29th that might produce some thunderstorms ahead of it. Mostly Pacific air, though. I'm not planning on leaving Texas again over the next month or two, so I'll be in control of the weather.

We need to figure out some kind of GoFundMe campaign to send Heat Miser away for a month or so in January. Or February. His powers are uncanny.

It's almost comical now how he seems to literally have control of the weather. Coincidence when he was gone it was cold and now that he's back it's warming up?

Lol thought it was just me.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z GFS slowly caving to the Euro. A couple of weak fronts next week before a bigger one on Friday.

Days 10-15 are chilly. Lows in the 30s/40s... Highs in the 40s/50s.

[Texas Snowman]

We need to figure out some kind of GoFundMe campaign to send Heat Miser away for a month or so in January. Or February. His powers are uncanny.

Funny thing is he wonders why he never gets any Christmas cards from any of us S2K winter weather folks.

[TheProfessor]

Man the end of the 6z GFS would have the potential to make me cry. If that low in the Eastern US were to bomb and move North-Northeastward That would be an epic snow storm for Ohio, but it would be 2 days or so before I head back to Ohio. Good thing its hour 384

[Snowman67]

I've managed to stop the cold front from moving through southeast Texas next Monday in the GFS runs. Still working on the EC runs, as it has the front moving through next Monday. It's not strong, though. This WILL be a nice, warm Christmas across Texas. We may even set a record warm low on Christmas Day in Houston.

Your azaleas will pay dearly for this later this winter.

Oops! Made a mistake on the Christmas Day record temps. Didn't include last year when the low was only 73 and the high was a nice 83. I love this new Christmas tradition.

Wxman57 - did you post the bolded part above? How did that show up as my post? Record temps on Christmas day is disgusting.

[wxman57]

I've managed to stop the cold front from moving through southeast Texas next Monday in the GFS runs. Still working on the EC runs, as it has the front moving through next Monday. It's not strong, though. This WILL be a nice, warm Christmas across Texas. We may even set a record warm low on Christmas Day in Houston.

Your azaleas will pay dearly for this later this winter.

Oops! Made a mistake on the Christmas Day record temps. Didn't include last year when the low was only 73 and the high was a nice 83. I love this new Christmas tradition.

Wxman57 - did you post the bolded part above? How did that show up as my post? Record temps on Christmas day is disgusting.

Looks like I edited the wrong post (yours vs. mine). I'm used to hitting the "edit" vs. "quote" button when I remove re-posted large graphics. It's fixed now.

I'm really looking forward to the nice, warm Christmas weather. No more freezes this year in Houston.

[Snowman67]

Your azaleas will pay dearly for this later this winter.

Oops! Made a mistake on the Christmas Day record temps. Didn't include last year when the low was only 73 and the high was a nice 83. I love this new Christmas tradition.

Wxman57 - did you post the bolded part above? How did that show up as my post? Record temps on Christmas day is disgusting.

Looks like I edited the wrong post (yours vs. mine). I'm used to hitting the "edit" vs. "quote" button when I remove re-posted large graphics. It's fixed now.

I'm really looking forward to the nice, warm Christmas weather. No more freezes this year in Houston.

No problem. Thought a heat miser hacked my account I will take you up on a bet about "no more freezes" this year if you change "year" to "Winter 2016/2017" and' Houston" to "Tomball"

[gboudx]

No problem. Thought a heat miser hacked my account I will take you up on a bet about "no more freezes" this year if you change Houston to Tomball

Make sure you define "this year" as being either 2016 or Winter 2016/2017 before the bet.

[Snowman67]

No problem. Thought a heat miser hacked my account I will take you up on a bet about "no more freezes" this year if you change Houston to Tomball

Make sure you define "this year" as being either 2016 or Winter 2016/2017 before the bet.

Very good point! My bet would be for the remainder of this "winter". So the time period would extend into 2017. Thanks for catching that

[Snowman67]

No problem. Thought a heat miser hacked my account I will take you up on a bet about "no more freezes" if you change "year" to "winter 2016/2017" and if you change Houston to Tomball

Make sure you define "this year" as being either 2016 or Winter 2016/2017 before the bet.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z continues to cave to Euro for next week... seasonal with a couple of fronts

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro continues to do what the Euro does... occupy rent in the GFS' dome in the mid range

[Ntxw]

-EPO is rearing its head again. The idea of a persistent +EPO into mid January might be sitting on some hot water (pun intended)

Ensembles say no GOA trough, in fact anomalous ridge. Keep saying watch that semi permanent ridge over the Aleutians. This winter has already shown us the cards dealt there

[Ntxw]

And it's not just that pattern, look over in Asia and what is happening while our cold relaxes. Deep anomalous cold once again pooling there. Sound a little familiar before a delivery pattern? I believe we just went through something like this a month ago.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，if that -epo sets up，do u think we can still get cold here without the -wpo? Im wondering whats contributing to this setup all of a sudden?any ideas?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，if that -epo sets up，do u think we can still get cold here without the -wpo? Im wondering whats contributing to this setup all of a sudden?any ideas?

It's no guarantee a -EPO will occur. But the ridging over the Aleutians is hard to deny, you have a very strong clustering of ensembles which is good confidence. Also it is the trend this winter as well as ENSO and analog climo so you can bet it will occur again and again. If the Aleutian ridge again manifests, the WPO will lower. Just like last year we all knew that the winter would feature a very stout Aleutian low.

We can argue all we want about weak/strong/ where is the MJO. In the end to no avail because background tropical forcing (effects NPAC) is over weak Nina favored Maritimes (Indonesia). It features anomalous ridge over the Aleutians.

[Golf7070]

Also，have u ever heard of the tnh pattern? Do u think its possible this winter?

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，if that -epo sets up，do u think we can still get cold here without the -wpo? Im wondering whats contributing to this setup all of a sudden?any ideas?

It's no guarantee a -EPO will occur. But the ridging over the Aleutians is hard to deny, you have a very strong clustering of ensembles which is good confidence. Also it is the trend this winter as well as ENSO and analog climo so you can bet it will occur again and again. If the Aleutian ridge again manifests, the WPO will lower. Just like last year we all knew that the winter would feature a very stout Aleutian low.

To me，looks like a ridge over alaska but not alutian ridge based on the euro image. Maybe they are the same to an extent? Not sure

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，if that -epo sets up，do u think we can still get cold here without the -wpo? Im wondering whats contributing to this setup all of a sudden?any ideas?

It's no guarantee a -EPO will occur. But the ridging over the Aleutians is hard to deny, you have a very strong clustering of ensembles which is good confidence. Also it is the trend this winter as well as ENSO and analog climo so you can bet it will occur again and again. If the Aleutian ridge again manifests, the WPO will lower. Just like last year we all knew that the winter would feature a very stout Aleutian low.

To me，looks like a ridge over alaska but not alutian ridge based on the euro image. Maybe they are the same to an extent? Not sure

It's all an extension of the Aleutian ridge. Eastern bump is the EPO domain. A better composite for this ridge perhaps might be the NPO or North Pacific Oscillation. If you are familiar with the NAO you will notice there are east and west based NAO. Pacific is just a bigger version.

Also，have u ever heard of the tnh pattern? Do u think its possible this winter?

I've heard of it but I've never dug deep into.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

And it's not just that pattern, look over in Asia and what is happening while our cold relaxes. Deep anomalous cold once again pooling there. Sound a little familiar before a delivery pattern? I believe we just went through something like this a month ago.

Been looking at the same map alot lately too. They are having their 'Polar Vortex" moment right now in Euraisa. Looking at the 2m anomalies in looks to remain cold in Siberia but so warm in the arctic. I wouldnt mind seeing the PV tighten up for a bit to help build cold in the arctic. Stays very warm at the pole in the models.

Ive been watching the high that is NE of the Philippines and see how it effects everything. Seems like its presence helps build an Aleutian high.