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Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.
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cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Careful with the GFS solution. It suggests the 850mb front stalls in the Brazos Valley near College Station/Lake Summerville. My experience is that dense shallow cold air drains right across the Balconies Escarpment all the way to the Gulf.
Would you take a stab at thinking freezing temps would make it down as far south as the RGV with such an airmass?
South Texas Storms wrote:Theepicman116 wrote:Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.
Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite
wxman57 wrote:18Z GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for central to NE Texas and southern Arkansas. Over 3" of freezing rain and sleet - not snow. I'd be very cautious about taking that ECMWF snowfall map at face value. I'm not sure how well it does discriminating between snow and freezing rain/sleet in these situations. I'm not aware of anywhere that I can get an ECMWF sounding as we can with the GFS. We get the full ECMWF package at work, but I don't think we can plot a sounding. However, I did promise that the DFW area would get its snow next, now that I let the rest of the state have snow last week. Would a foot be enough up there?
Again, this may more likely be a freezing rain and sleet event - quite a severe ice storm. Central to NE TX and southern Arkansas are under the gun. Not so much of a threat for SE TX this time, it appears. Still a week off, though.
http://wxman57.com/images/18ZGFS.JPG
Cpv17 wrote:It’s crazy how we’re almost at 100 pages and winter hasn’t even officially started yet.
South Texas Storms wrote:Theepicman116 wrote:Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.
Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite
SnowintheFalls wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Theepicman116 wrote:Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.
Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite
I was guilty of lurking but this is worth joining the discussion! I have been enjoying the white stuff up in Wisconsin the past couple weeks but looks like I may bring some with me when I get back to Wichita Falls! I keep seeing the GFS keeping most of the precipitation south of the Red River. I know we are still way out, but is there something in the atmosphere keeping it away on the models? I know myself and Yukon Cornelius are from the same area and I'm sure he has the same thought.
South Texas Storms wrote:18z GFS Ensembles are showing heavier precipitation amounts across much of TX.
I rather have 6 inches of snow than a half inch of ice.Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:18z GFS Ensembles are showing heavier precipitation amounts across much of TX.
The means has 3-6" of liquid in far east and southeast Texas while a large area of 2"+ from just west of the I-35 corridor eastward. When you're talking inches in liquid in conjunction with freezing temperatures, it's a problem when major ice/snow events are pretty big with just a half inch. So it's not just the cold air, near record qpf for the time of year as well.
Cold weather is 1 of them.sphelps8681 wrote:I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?
sphelps8681 wrote:I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?
starsfan65 wrote:Cold weather is 1 of them.sphelps8681 wrote:I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?
Cpv17 wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?
I would air on the side of caution and not recommend anyone be on the roadways in the state of TX on Christmas Day. Could be a huge mess out there and it’s simply not worth taking a chance. Especially with the way it’s looking now.
sphelps8681 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Cold weather is 1 of them.sphelps8681 wrote:I have some friends traveling to Longview at Christmas from Beaumont, Tx. What will they encounter?
Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.
Ntxw wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I dont get excited about hurricanes hitting me 9 days out, not doing that with this system either!
On a serious note, wxman57 earlier today gave us all a warning to be prepared for something disruptive. He is a well respected met on here and when he gets serious about a threat (hurricane or winter) everyone stops to listen. Jokes aside, you just don't see him give such advice unless the threat was real.
There are circles beyond just the threads about fun and excitement as this is potentially a real problem for many travelers, many of our posters have made notice of plans. It's now more than just a curiosity, people will have to make decisions.
sphelps8681 wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Cold weather is 1 of them.
Yes I do understand that it will be cold. I was more concerned if their trip would be to dangerous for them to take.
I wonder why people don't want to ask questions. Hmmm!!
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