Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1881 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:25 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:This is looking like a freezing rain event primarily with some backend snow. The I35 corridor north of Austin through N TX has the highest chance for significant icing. Though if the freeze line can creep eastward there is a lot more moisture in ETX. Over here it will most likely be 35 and heavy rain, but that is very close so temp trends will have to be watched carefully. We still have a couple days of model watching so much can still change. What we know for sure is that it will be cold is and there will be moisture, but the freeze line could stay west of DFW or push through E TX and that will determine what happens.


The trend today has been a much more powerful, amped up storm. That's been the case this year with these bowling ball lows. Cold comes in first, then you have strong overrunning from the deep system to the west. Still though it is a trend. It was not a very moist system depicted not too long ago but that has quickly changed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1882 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:43 pm

While we wait for the GFS (running) here's a loop from Goes-17. What a beautiful STJ linkup for the storm coming through tonight!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1883 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:02 pm

GFS looks to be all rain for the metro
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1884 Postby spencer817 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:07 pm

Brent wrote:GFS looks to be all rain for the metro


Just have to hope the NAM somehow beats most of the globals at this point, which may seem like a longshot at first, but mesoscale models are there for things like temp profiles. Don't think this is like the OK ghost storm a few weeks ago, the setup is much more favorable, its a matter of where and how much at this point.

@Ntwx why do you think the system is much slower at 500 mb this run? just a throw away run for a global model that struggles or a big alarming shift?
Last edited by spencer817 on Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1885 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:08 pm

CMC looks to have a narrow band of ice ending as snow maybe but the metro is on the line
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1886 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:09 pm

Brent wrote:GFS looks to be all rain for the metro


Looks to be 39-40 for entire event on that run. Hmmm
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1887 Postby spencer817 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:12 pm

CMC still sticking to its guns, I really wonder if the GFS has some major issues if it makes huge jumps like that at 500mb...at hour 48-60 nontheless
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1888 Postby Jarodm12 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:14 pm

GFS too warm, let's hope the euro comes in like the nam the icon looks good and the cmcs ok
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1889 Postby SouthernMet » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:15 pm

ICON/Nam/Sref showing a pretty impressive ice/sleet storm for Wednesday into Wednesday night for north tx, with light snow on the backside early Thursday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1890 Postby Cerlin » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:15 pm

Personally my confidence for a Wednesday event is really low because of the past couple of years and models ditching at the last few days, but my hopes are high and I’m still believing this is DFW’s best chance.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1891 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:19 pm

Cerlin wrote:Personally my confidence for a Wednesday event is really low because of the past couple of years and models ditching at the last few days, but my hopes are high and I’m still believing this is DFW’s best chance.


this is still definitely the best setup of the winter to me(though that may not be saying much lol) the other threats were always so incredibly borderline

But I tend to agree I have this skepticism too because of our unlucky streak lately
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1892 Postby Cerlin » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:21 pm

Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Personally my confidence for a Wednesday event is really low because of the past couple of years and models ditching at the last few days, but my hopes are high and I’m still believing this is DFW’s best chance.


this is still definitely the best setup of the winter to me(though that may not be saying much lol) the other threats were always so incredibly borderline

But I tend to agree I have this skepticism too because of our unlucky streak lately

Definitely agree. Very hard not to be skeptical because even if all the components are here now, they could be gone tomorrow. Things still look good outside of the global models, so i’m hoping the mesoscales reign supreme! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1893 Postby spencer817 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:24 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Personally my confidence for a Wednesday event is really low because of the past couple of years and models ditching at the last few days, but my hopes are high and I’m still believing this is DFW’s best chance.


this is still definitely the best setup of the winter to me(though that may not be saying much lol) the other threats were always so incredibly borderline

But I tend to agree I have this skepticism too because of our unlucky streak lately

Definitely agree. Very hard not to be skeptical because even if all the components are here now, they could be gone tomorrow. Things still look good outside of the global models, so i’m hoping the mesoscales reign supreme! :lol:


Lets just hope this isn't Oklahoma 2.0, I really felt bad for them! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1894 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:29 pm

spencer817 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:
this is still definitely the best setup of the winter to me(though that may not be saying much lol) the other threats were always so incredibly borderline

But I tend to agree I have this skepticism too because of our unlucky streak lately

Definitely agree. Very hard not to be skeptical because even if all the components are here now, they could be gone tomorrow. Things still look good outside of the global models, so i’m hoping the mesoscales reign supreme! :lol:


Lets just hope this isn't Oklahoma 2.0, I really felt bad for them! :lol:

That one was expected to bust by many on here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1895 Postby Captmorg70 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:43 pm

Been watching this storm from afar. Just made it back from NM. After driving on icy roads from Dalhart to Angel Fire, I’m really hoping this doesn’t turn into a big ice storm :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1896 Postby spencer817 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:00 am

FV3 shifted way NW, ugh these models will be the death of me.

An encouraging sign is that the NAM and the GFS/FV3 are similar in placement at 500mb, and yet much warmer. SHould be interesting to see how that plays out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1897 Postby EnnisTx » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:04 am

Just as I said not long ago....These models are all crap. Let's just rub some sticks together and throw them in the air and say hey it's gonna snow. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1898 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:10 am

EnnisTx wrote:Just as I said not long ago....These models are all crap. Let's just rub some sticks together and throw them in the air and say hey it's gonna snow. :ggreen:


I’m up for anything, do you think that might work?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1899 Postby Cerlin » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:15 am

EnnisTx wrote:Just as I said not long ago....These models are all crap. Let's just rub some sticks together and throw them in the air and say hey it's gonna snow. :ggreen:

Models are crap? Winter cancel!! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1900 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:22 am

EnnisTx wrote:Just as I said not long ago....These models are all crap. Let's just rub some sticks together and throw them in the air and say hey it's gonna snow. :ggreen:


I'm becoming a big proponent of the look out the window method :lol:
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