Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

You’d think with this setup, we’d be having a pretty cold outbreak?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.png

But instead it shows a torch:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_43.png

The 500mb patterns is not matching the lower level patterns.

Yeah not at all.

[wxman57]

GFS & Canadian both have a closed low (500mb) over NW Mexico next Sunday moving slowly east. Euro has a trof axis passing Texas at the same time. Completely different patterns. GFS has generally been wrong.

[Iceresistance]

May be not Texas related, but there is a literal PDS Lake Effect Snow Warning for New York right now, this is what it said in the Warning:

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors.

[Ralph's Weather]

You’d think with this setup, we’d be having a pretty cold outbreak?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.png

But instead it shows a torch:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_43.png

The 500mb patterns is not matching the lower level patterns.

Yeah not at all.

I would bet that there would be significant low level cold with that set up. Long way out so surface depictions are pretty meaningless.

[bubba hotep]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

[Cpv17]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Ntxw believes that moisture won’t be a problem because of the Niña acting like a Niño and an active STJ.

[bubba hotep]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Ntxw believes that moisture won’t be a problem because of the Niña acting like a Niño and an active STJ.

We'll have to wait and see. The models keep trying to turn wetter in the longer range but keep reverting back to more of what you would expect with the given background state. The problem in the longer range is presciently lower heights across the Great Lakes, that makes it hard for a system to dig into the SW and amplify out in the Southern Plains. Systems tend to get sheered out into the base of the mean trough, meaning it stays mostly dry across Texas and you don't see precipitation pick up until the system rounds the base.

[Brent]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Ntxw believes that moisture won’t be a problem because of the Niña acting like a Niño and an active STJ.

We'll have to wait and see. The models keep trying to turn wetter in the longer range but keep reverting back to more of what you would expect with the given background state. The problem in the longer range is presciently lower heights across the Great Lakes, that makes it hard for a system to dig into the SW and amplify out in the Southern Plains. Systems tend to get sheered out into the base of the mean trough, meaning it stays mostly dry across Texas and you don't see precipitation pick up until the system rounds the base.

Yeah I dunno. It just seems like all we can get is dry cold right now. Even the rain looks good only to poof

[orangeblood]

Operational now picking up on this weekend’s potential snow maker, several ENS members have been hinting at this for a few days now

[Cpv17]

GFS & Canadian both have a closed low (500mb) over NW Mexico next Sunday moving slowly east. Euro has a trof axis passing Texas at the same time. Completely different patterns. GFS has generally been wrong.

You should be rooting for the GFS. Most of Texas needs rain.

[Brent]

Maybe one day the snow on the GFS beyond 300 hours will verify

Edit to add the 18z is definitely wet

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Not too concerned about that looking at the long range PNA forecast…

[Cpv17]

Wow, the firehose is on regarding the 18z GFS.

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Not too concerned about that looking at the long range PNA forecast…

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/pna/box/1641729600-qRTyqIt5iGkgrb2.png

After this Nino like pattern there is a decent showing by the ENS (quite unusual good consensus) of a major CONUS cold outbreak.

[Iceresistance]

Unfortunately, seeing some precursor signs to a McFarland pattern setting up in the longer range. IMHO, this sucks b/c it is typically pretty dry and this type of cold is just not good for anyone. The one caveat, our source region is warming up significantly (compared to climo but still cold) so that might limit the extremeness of any potential cold snap, depending on how much recharge can occur before the dump.

Not too concerned about that looking at the long range PNA forecast…

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/pna/box/1641729600-qRTyqIt5iGkgrb2.png

After this Nino like pattern there is a decent showing by the ENS (quite unusual good consensus) of a major CONUS cold outbreak.

Well, if this gets pushed back, then February would be a nightmare scenario . . .

I've had no updates for the MJO since January 5th, what's the latest updates for the MJO? (If they can be found . . . )

[Haris]

Operational now picking up on this weekend’s potential snow maker, several ENS members have been hinting at this for a few days now

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype_3hr/1641751200/1642291200-ab5TMCPZUHI.png

0z got rid of it completely. Not really any good confidence yet at all at least in the medium range.

[vbhoutex]

Short lived CC drop on that tor warned cell in Houston. Haven't seen any official confirmation yet but there was likely a short lived tornado just north of I-10 a few minutes ago.

That cell apparently did drop a tornado that did some substantial damage about 1/2 mile to my East. It got crazy wild with the wind and continuous lightning. Had 5.53" of rain yesterday with most of it in 2 hours after no rain for 3 weeks and the last substantial rain almost 2 months ago(1.04"). I toured the area and reported to NWS and they are coming out to survey tomorrow. If they confirm a tornado that will bring the number confirmed in Houston metro yesterday/last night to 6. Quite a rough night for many in Houston and unusual for us to have that type of weather in January.

[wxman57]

Little or no rain and no winter weather across TX this weekend on the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs. Nothing on Canadian, either. GFS & Canadian no longer have a closed upper low over NW Mexico this weekend. GFS has it west of Baja, Canadian closer to Baja. Euro keeps it west of Baja, too. Good agreement now. GFS has mostly well above normal temps across Texas for the next couple of weeks. Progressive pattern keeps pushing the cold air off to the east rather than south down the Plains.

[HockeyTx82]

Little or no rain and no winter weather across TX this weekend on the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs. Nothing on Canadian, either. GFS & Canadian no longer have a closed upper low over NW Mexico this weekend. GFS has it west of Baja, Canadian closer to Baja. Euro keeps it west of Baja, too. Good agreement now. GFS has mostly well above normal temps across Texas for the next couple of weeks. Progressive pattern keeps pushing the cold air off to the east rather than south down the Plains.

Guess your wall is holding up.

[Cpv17]

Little or no rain and no winter weather across TX this weekend on the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs. Nothing on Canadian, either. GFS & Canadian no longer have a closed upper low over NW Mexico this weekend. GFS has it west of Baja, Canadian closer to Baja. Euro keeps it west of Baja, too. Good agreement now. GFS has mostly well above normal temps across Texas for the next couple of weeks. Progressive pattern keeps pushing the cold air off to the east rather than south down the Plains.

GEFS says different and has 1-2” of rain over the next couple weeks.